Analysis of New Opportunities for Power Equipment Industry in 2012
Smart grid construction is the main driving force for driving the rapid and long-term growth of demand for power equipment. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China will build 20 to 30 smart grid technology demonstration projects and 3 to 5 smart grid integrated demonstration projects, and build 5 to 10 smart grid demonstration cities and 50 smart grid demonstration parks. It is expected that the smart grid construction around 2015 will usher in a small peak in investment and construction, and will bring about 300 billion yuan in demand for power smart devices in the next five years.
Power generation, dispatching intelligence
The intelligentization of power generation and dispatching is mainly the intelligent large-scale access of intermittent new energy sources, and the realization of the intelligent control system of the plant network. The China Electricity Council issued the "Research Report on the Development of China's New Energy Generation" and put forward a proposal for the development goals and layout of China's new energy generation development plans. By 2015, the installed capacity of wind power will reach 100 million kilowatts, and the solar power generation capacity will reach 5 million kilowatts. The power generation capacity reaches 10,000 kilowatts. With the increase in the installed capacity of intermittent and unstable new energy power sources, and the continuous increase in the proportion of grid connection, the power grid will inevitably undergo a severe test, and the demand for smart grids will become more and more urgent. According to the relevant technical standards and system requirements of renewable energy grid-connected, the new type of intermittent energy source can send a variety of configuration and operation mode to the friendly grid, and realize accurate prediction of power generation and intelligent dispatch control functions. The grid requires the establishment of a power forecasting and operation monitoring system for intermittent new energy sources with an installed capacity of 30,000 kilowatts or more. This will increase the demand for intermittent new energy grid-connected equipment.
According to the report issued by CEC on wind power and solar power generation during the 12th five-year period, and the current unit price of converters and inverters, the total domestic market capacity of new energy generation and grid-connected equipment after the 12th five-year plan A rough estimate is about 11.4 billion yuan. Among them, the total demand for photovoltaic inverter market is expected to reach 8.5 billion yuan, and the total demand for wind power converter market is expected to reach 2.9 billion yuan.
Transmission, substation intelligence
Intelligent transmission links, mainly AC and DC flexible transmission systems, use high-power electronic components to control the adjustment of AC and DC power system operating parameters or network parameters, optimize power system operation, and improve AC and DC power systems. The transmission capacity of the line. The construction of this system will increase the demand for on-line monitoring equipment and AC/DC flexible transmission static var compensators and static synchronous compensators.
It is expected that the late 12th-fiveth period will be the golden period for the rapid development of flexible transmission, and investment will bring equipment demand exceeding 19 billion yuan.
Smart substations are important support for the integration of new energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy into the power grid. In 2011, the State Grid Corporation of China issued the “Supplementary Regulations for the State Grid Corporation of China on Newly Built Substations in 2011â€, which requires that all new construction projects for 110 (66) kV and above substations that are exchanged in 2011 be designed as smart substations. It is estimated that by 2015, smart substations with a voltage rating of 110 (66) kV and above will account for about 30% of the total seats. It is estimated that by 2015, the domestic market will have a capacity of more than 50 billion yuan.
Power distribution, electricity intelligence
Distribution equipment, intelligent distribution system intelligence. If the current distribution equipment for intelligent transformation, including 32 provincial capital cities, 283 prefecture-level cities and 2010 county-level cities, including urban network self-energy distribution terminal and the main station. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the total market capacity of intelligent terminals and main stations for distribution will reach 23 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan, respectively, with the total market capacity approaching 28 billion yuan. The potential for growth in distribution automation will be enormous in the coming years.
Electricity intelligence
The user power information collection system collects and analyzes the power data of distribution transformers and end-users, realizes power consumption monitoring, implements ladder power price, peak-to-valley power price, load management, and line loss analysis, and finally achieves electricity inspection. Automatic meter reading, peak load shifting, load forecasting, and savings in electricity costs. The user information collection system mainly needs smart meters, concentrators, collectors, and information acquisition management systems. In the next 2 to 3 years, the smart electricity market is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 20% to 30%, with a total market capacity of approximately 120 billion yuan.
The ultimate goal of smart grids is to build a smart grid featuring information, automation and interaction by 2015. The smart grid construction will promote the upgrading and leaping of China's power grid from the traditional grid to a highly efficient, economical, clean and interactive modern grid. This will create a strong demand for the power equipment market, creating a rare opportunity for power equipment suppliers.
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