Vietnam bans exports of titanium ore on July 1

"It is not the first time that the ban has been announced. If the impact is great, we will issue an announcement at that time," said an employee from Ananda. She said that the mine is a titanium mine, and the ban means that the Vietnamese Prime Minister issued a directive on January 9 this year to approve the export of titanium ore currently in stock until June 30, 2012.

Vietnam is the largest supplier of titanium ore to China. It also threatened to ban the mines in 2008 and 2011. In the end, it has nothing to do with it. Annada is quite dismissive of this year’s ban on the mine. Sun Tong from Yingkou New Material Co., Ltd. said: “It is definitely a matter of ban. At least there will be no Vietnam mine imports from July to December this year. There will be no next year. It is still unclear.”

With the arrival of the ban on the July 1 ban, the price of titanium ore in the Panzhihua region has risen slightly; Vietnam's Ti-A Ti ore has already stopped falling, and the current price remains at 2,400-2,500 yuan (excluding tax). Sun Hao revealed that many traders in China have sold goods in advance and waited for prices to rise.

70% of Vietnam's titanium ore is used in the production of titanium dioxide. Two analysts and one trader described the price trend of titanium dioxide in the next period: It will rise at the beginning of July, decline from the end of July to August, and be optimistic from September to October.

Import miners are waiting to go up

Ananda is a domestic listed company of titanium dioxide, its official website describes, the company has anatase titanium dioxide production capacity of 35,000 tons / year, rutile titanium dioxide production capacity of 40,000 tons / year. The company staff told reporters that the company signed a long-term supply agreement, this is to ensure the stability of the price of titanium ore.

Ananda’s titanium mines are mainly supplied by Kunming Dawson and Pangang Titanium. The transaction volume in 2011 was RMB 7,406,508,000 and RMB 52,517,500. Dawson's titanium mine in Kunming is precisely imported from Vietnam. The reporter once called the legal representative of the company, Guan Hui, to learn about the intention of the reporter and she refused to accept the interview. However, Vietnam's ban on the export of titanium ore on July 1 is an unavoidable topic.

The statistics provided by the Business Club show that titanium mines supplied by Vietnam account for one-third of China’s titanium ore imports; in 2009, it was 646,800 tons, in 2010 it was 837,700 tons, and in 2011 it was 789,400 tons. After the release of the anti-mine news on January 9, the total amount of titanium ore that Vietnam exported to China from January to May was 551,900 tons, 35.77% more than the 406,500 tons in 2011, and nearly 600,000 tons of quotas had been completed in the first half of the year.

Titanium dioxide analyst Yang Xun said that 13% of China's titanium mines imported from Vietnam are used for refining titanium slag, 17% for titanium and iron, and 70% for the production of titanium dioxide. “The news of the ban on minerals has been released so far. In more than five months, the penetration was very high, and the miners’ bullishness was expected to be strong.” When a reporter called Panzhihua Ti, the staff said that the ban was a good thing for the company and stated that on June 20, they had put titanium. The price of concentrates was raised by 400 yuan per ton and the price rose to 2,400 yuan per ton.

The capacity of Panzhihua-titanium-titanium concentrate is 500,000 tons/year. In 2011, the company produced 497,700 tons of titanium concentrate and 115,100 tons of high-titanium slag. In 2012, the target of titanium concentrate production was 490,000 tons. Since Panzhihua Iron and Titanium also has a titanium dioxide production line, the titanium mine is 1/3 owned and the rest exported.

According to Sun Yun, many traders in China already stockpiled goods in advance. “The titanium deposits of the titanium mines have now reached 150,000 to 160,000 tons, but the highest is only 170,000 to 180,000 tons. The price of Vietnam’s Ti-A titanium ore fell. It will not fall after April of this year. Now everyone is waiting for the price to rise."

Titanium dioxide industry is still uncertain

After the ban on minerals in Vietnam, the domestic titanium ore supply gap immediately appeared, but its price rose or fell, but also depends on the "face" of titanium dioxide.

Business Society data show that in March this year, the highest rutile titanium dioxide had rebounded to 21,000 yuan / ton, the end of May and fell back to 18,500 yuan / ton, the current price of titanium dioxide rose by 1,000 yuan per ton to 19,500 yuan / ton.

During this period, domestic downstream coatings, plastics, papermaking and other industries continued to show signs of waning demand for titanium dioxide; while foreign countries have a “good scenery”, so domestic titanium dioxide manufacturers tend to choose to export.

According to customs data, in the first five months of this year, domestic exports of titanium dioxide were 190,900 tons, and the export amount had reached 580 million US dollars; in the same period last year, the export volume was 169,700 tons, and the export amount was 442 million US dollars. In March and May of this year, the single-month export volume of this product exceeded 42,000 tons twice, and only 40,000 tons was exported in June last year. It was precisely due to the international giants DuPont, DSM, etc., that the price of titanium dioxide was adjusted again. The average price of titanium dioxide in China rose from 2.85 US$/kg in January to 3.14 US$/kg in April.

However, since the price adjustment in April, the foreign giants have been silent, and the average price of titanium dioxide in May has also dropped to 3.08 yuan/kg. The data for June will not be released until the end of July. In July and August, it is the low season for domestic demand. After the ban on minerals in Vietnam, what will happen to the price of titanium dioxide?

Yang Xun expressed that, “The overall price adjustment of titanium dioxide manufacturers at the end of May was due to a slight rebound in titanium concentrates and speculation by manufacturers. June and July are key periods, mainly depending on the extent of the impact of the Vietnam incident. If you treat it rationally, Titanium dioxide prices will be constrained by demand, and will postplow, but the miners will always pursue profit maximization. From the perspective of the reluctant sentiment reflected by the Vietnamese miners in early June, the market outlook is extremely likely to rise, and titanium dioxide will be present throughout the year. "N" shape."

Terry Ting, chief editor of titanium dioxide, Wang Tingting, is more cautious. She thinks: “On June 20th, Panzhihua Iron and Steel raised the price of titanium ore, and the domestic titanium dioxide manufacturers did not follow up with it because of their own concerns. I think that by the end of July, Titanium dioxide prices will be slightly reduced, after the lack of information guidelines in September, the trend is still not clear. Sun Ye is optimistic about the September to October market.

So far, three industry players have knitted the trend of titanium dioxide from July to October for investors: It will rise at the beginning of July, decline from the end of July to August, and be optimistic from September to October.

Regardless of whether the price of titanium dioxide is up or down, what is currently being concerned about is the impact of the ban on the production of titanium dioxide by Vietnam?

At present, Jubilee should not be affected. The company's titanium mines are mainly from Australia and Panzhihua. Ananda who is very dependent on Vietnam mine said: "If the impact is great, we will issue an announcement at that time."