China coal chemical policy ushered in thawing

Coal high inventory conditions will reverse. The "ice-sealed" three-year coal chemical industry began to "lock loose."

First, the wind blew up at the end of Qing Ping

On June 29th, at the inauguration ceremony of the first National Coal Chemical Industry Organization “China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation Coal Chemicals Professional Committee”, Li Zhi, Director of the Energy Saving and Science and Technology Preparedness Division of the National Energy Administration, said that the National Development and Reform Commission The “Coal Deep Processing Demonstration Project Plan” (hereinafter referred to as the “Planning”) and the “Coal Deep Processing Industry Development Policy” (hereinafter referred to as the “Policy”) prepared by the Energy Bureau have already passed through the Development and Reform Commission Director's Office and are planned to be implemented in the near future. Among them, a total of 18 key demonstration projects such as the approval of gasification technology, synthesis technology, and large-scale equipment, and 15 coal deep processing demonstration projects in 11 provinces and autonomous regions including Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang were included.

Subsequently, Zhang Guobao, the director of the National Energy Experts Advisory Committee and Wu Hao, the deputy director of the National Energy Administration visited the Shenhua Group's coal-to-oil project to prepare for the expansion of the demonstration project. There are indications that the country will "lock loose" for the frozen coal chemical project.

China's coal-rich, oil-poor energy structure determines that coal is dominant in the country's energy consumption for a long period of time. The use of coal as raw material for the production of chemical and oil products as a supplement to petrochemicals is in line with the national energy development strategy. However, the reopening of coal chemical projects will also face new problems and challenges.

Second, the development of coal chemical industry twists and turns

Traditional coal chemical industry mainly consists of three sub-sectors: coking, calcium carbide, and synthetic ammonia. It has limitations such as high energy consumption, heavy pollution, small scale, and backward technology. It was blindly launched in the early stage and lacked planning, resulting in resource constraints and excess production capacity. The new coal chemical industry mainly uses low-end lignite as raw materials, and mainly produces chemical products that replace petroleum and fuel oils, including coal-to-petroleum, coal-to-olefins, coal-to-dimethyl ether, coal-based natural gas (methane), and coal-to-metal B. Diols and other five categories.

Under the economic downturn, the coal industry has continued to slump and coal inventories have continued to increase. Forcing a lot of coal companies to start restructuring, began to deep processing of coal, coal chemical industry is just around the corner. However, at the same time of continuous expansion, the development style of staking and racing has caused the coal chemical industry to continue to suffer. Coal chemical products also began to decline.

"The market demand after the blowout has not increased, and the oversupply of methanol in the coal chemical industry, especially the primary product, has been very serious. Only one methanol, from just over 4,000 yuan/ton, dropped to 2,000 yuan in only three years." T.” Shen Ruru said.

In 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Circular on Strengthening the Construction and Management of Coal Chemical Projects to Promote the Healthy Development of Industries", arguing that "the production capacity of traditional coal chemical products such as calcium carbide and coke has been excessively oversupply, and the petroleum substitute products such as methanol and dimethyl ether have blindly developed. The momentum has gradually emerged, and at the same time, in some areas, at the expense of resources, large-scale investment promotion, resource allocation and development and utilization are unreasonable."

In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission began to have targeted "receiving rights." The "Notice" stated that "the approval or filing of coal chemical projects shall be suspended until the relevant planning is completed and confirmed by the National Development and Reform Department." However, changes in the supply and demand of coal have resulted in a gradual increase in coal inventories, coal chemical projects around the country have begun to expand viciously, and repeated construction has become the biggest criticism of the coal chemical industry.

In September 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Circular on Strengthening the Management of Coal-to-Liquid Oil Projects." It clearly stipulates that, in addition to the two major coal-to-oil projects of Shenhua Group, the approval of other coal-to-oil projects will be suspended.

In 2009, the State Council issued the “Several Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Duplicate Construction and Leading the Healthy Development of Industries”, in which coal chemical industry was proposed as a “six superfluous industries” with a clear rectification plan.

According to the “Opinions,” the traditional coal chemical industry was heavily rebuilt and the production capacity was over 30%. Under the impact of imported products, the operating rate of methanol plant in the first half of 2009 was only about 40%.

As a result, the project approval of coal chemical projects was basically closed. The government listed the coal chemical industry as a list of overcapacity and redundant construction, and proposed that "in the future three years, the new modern coal chemical pilot project will not be arranged in principle." On May 18 of the same year, the General Office of the State Council promulgated the "Planning and Revitalization Plan of the Petrochemical Industry", mentioning that the above-mentioned five types of demonstration projects should be focused on and exploring new ways of efficient coal cleaning and transformation and the diversified development of petrochemical raw materials, and in principle no longer be arranged. New coal chemical pilot project.

It is understood that the second half of 2011 so far includes the 6 million tons coal-based polygeneration project, which is claimed to be the country's largest single project, the Qinghai Qaidam Circular Economy Experimental Zone, as well as the projects initiated in Pingliang, Gansu, Yulin, Shaanxi, and Zhundong, Xinjiang. None of the coal chemical projects were approved by the National Development and Reform Commission.

But despite the National Development and Reform Commission's loosening of the coal chemical project, the industry's turbulent chaos still allows the government to continue its approval of the industry.

Up to now, all localities have officially reported to the National Development and Reform Commission that a total of 104 large-scale coal chemical projects have been approved during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. According to the technical plan submitted by various localities, if all were built during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the investment would exceed two trillion yuan. yuan. The coal-to-oil project reached 50 million tons and 28 million tons of methanol. However, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the approval of a total of 700 billion investments in 15 demonstration projects. Shen Yuru introduced to.

Third, the prospect of coal oil project is doubtful

According to reports, Shenhua Huaning Coal's 4 million tons/year coal indirect liquefaction project has been approved by relevant government departments. This means that China’s largest indirect coal-to-liquid project, which has suffered many setbacks before, will officially begin construction. It is understood that this project is the only demonstration project in Ningdong listed in the "Coal Deep Processing Demonstration Project Plan". According to the development plan of Ningdong Energy and Chemical Industry Base, by 2020, the production capacity of finished products of Ningdong Coal Chemicals will reach more than 20 million tons, of which coal will be 4 million tons per year.

In addition to Shenhua, Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co., Ltd. also plans its own 10 million-ton coal-based oil project.

According to Yi Qing, deputy general manager of Yitai Coal-to-liquids, under the circumstances of national policy, Yitai coal-to-oil production capacity is expected to reach 10 million tons/year by 2020, and the required investment will be around 150 billion yuan. The coal-to-oil business will surpass coal and become the largest source of income for the company.

Despite frequent actions by coal chemical companies, the prospects for the industrialization of coal chemical industry are still controversial.

Taking coal-based oil as an example, from the 1950s onwards, South African Sasol Company began to try to make coal from oil. At present, it has formed the world's largest coal-to-oil plant, producing 7.6 million tons of oil products per year, supplying South Africa 32 In the market, chemical products are exported to more than 90 countries.

However, in China, the coal-to-oil projects that have already been put into operation are only Shenhua, Yitai and Chunan, and their total production capacity is less than 1.5 million tons. It can be said that the reliability and investment economy of domestic coal-to-oil technology still need to be further verified.

“The economy is not very high and will not reduce the dependence on chemicals. From the existing technology, the conversion rate from coal to petroleum and other chemicals is very low. The amount of coal needed for the same quantity and quality of chemicals The cost is much higher,” said Dr. Sun Qingwei, director of the Greenpeace Climate and Energy Department.

“The poor economic efficiency of certain coal-to-oil projects is mainly due to the fact that the price of coal is relatively expensive and the process is not properly selected. For example, for a coal-to-oil project of the same size, raw coal price is 1,000 yuan per ton, and some The cost of catalyst and investment varies by 20% to 30% per tonne, which is in the range of 3 to 400. In addition, the costs of tail gas utilization and sewage treatment vary, resulting in a large gap in revenue between different projects.” Coal Research Institute, Beijing Coal Chemical Research Deputy Director Chen Yafei said.

Fourth, "one effective two consumption" into indicators

It is worth mentioning that, while the industry’s sentimental investment in new coal chemical industry is approaching, doubts about the development of the new coal chemical industry have never stopped. One of the biggest questions comes from the destruction of the ecological environment, especially the water resources of the project. Consumption.

According to Chen Yafei, the "Twelfth Five-Year" coal chemical demonstration project's technical specifications (draft for review) has strict requirements on energy consumption and other indicators. The main indicators of national review of coal chemical projects are energy efficiency, coal consumption, water consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions. The pros and cons of these indicators are the key to the expansion of demonstration projects and the approval of new projects.

At present, China's major coal producing areas have a per capita possession of water resources and a unit country with only one-tenth of the country’s water reserves. In these bases, the entire process from coal mining, washing, thermal power generation to coal chemical industry is highly water-intensive, and water resources conditions are inevitably an important constraint to the development of coal-fired power plants.

Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, as the key area for the expansion of the “12th Five-Year” coal-fired power base, the contradiction in the supply of water resources in Inner Mongolia is particularly prominent. The various ecological tragedies of river-cutting, grassland desertification intensification, disappearance of wetlands, and displacement of herdsmen brought about by coal development are constantly occurring and intensifying.