Tool industry 1-2 months production and sales gradually picking up
2018-10-13 05:01:47
According to the statistical report of the Tool Tool Industry Branch of China Machine Tool Industry Association, the domestic tool industry maintained steady and rapid growth in the first three quarters of 2008, and began to decline from the fourth quarter, especially in November 2008. However, from the perspective of the whole year, the tool industry's gross sales revenue of the tool industry was 22.25 billion yuan, compared with the previous year, the growth rate still reached 27.2%. The profit was 1.857 billion yuan, an increase of 22.1%. This figure and the national large-scale tool enterprises provided by the National Bureau of Statistics have gross revenue of 45.84 billion yuan, an increase of 25.6%; gross sales of gross sales of 8.08 billion yuan, an increase of 13.5%, and a profit of 2.521 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3%. In contrast, the big trend is the same.
3 shock waves suffered by the tool industry
It now appears that the impact of the international financial turmoil on China's real economy is more serious than originally expected. The first wave of impact in the tool industry was first reflected in the Wenling tool market in Zhejiang. The sales of inferior and low-priced tools fell sharply, reaching 30% to 50%. These low-cost tools mainly supply low-end mechanical and electrical products manufacturers, and have little impact on the overall situation of the domestic tool industry.
The second wave of shock was the export tool manufacturer. Since the fourth quarter of 2008, orders have fallen by 50%. However, orders in the first three quarters were abundant, so there was still a large increase in tool exports in 2008. According to the tool, the export of tool exports increased by 26.7% (both in US dollars, the same below. In terms of RMB, only 15%), and the export of measuring tools increased by 9.5%. Looking forward to 2009, it is estimated that due to the reduction in orders, tool exports will have a significant decline.
The third wave of impact on the tool industry is the most serious impact. Basically, from November 2008, China’s influential large-scale mainstream tool companies suddenly saw a sharp decline in sales. The industry described this phenomenon as a “diving-style†decline. The decline has generally reached 40% to 50%. This situation is beyond the original estimate.
Judging from the specific research situation in Shanghai, Zhejiang and other regions, the judgment of the club is that from the perspective of use, there is no possibility of a sudden sharp drop in demand. After all, the equipment of the manufacturing enterprises is still in operation, and the entire manufacturing industry in China does not The situation of large-scale diving shows that various intermediate links, including sales systems, middlemen, and end users have doubts about the development prospects of the macro economy, and everyone is waiting to see. So began to eat inventory, suspended purchases. We also confirmed by some intermediaries and affiliates that they did reduce or stop the purchase, and some end users are also reducing the purchase to reduce inventory. Based on these circumstances, the tool club secretariat and major tool companies exchanged views through communication. The consensus is that the impact of the international financial crisis on China's real economy is indeed very serious and needs to be taken seriously. But some short-term sales data, including the wait-and-see factors of middlemen and end-users, are maintaining operations by reducing inventory. The decline in actual demand is unlikely to drop suddenly by 40% to 50%. Everyone believes that with the implementation of a series of national stimulus policies and the recovery of confidence in the corporate world, domestic demand should have a process of stabilization and recovery. This kind of estimation has already begun to take shape this year. According to the monthly statistical report of the Tool Branch in January 2009, 4 of the 35 major tool companies have sold more than the same period of last year, and the overall sales situation has improved slightly from the end of last year. The sales in January including the Spring Festival factor decreased by 36.7. %. Since February this year, orders and sales of most companies have reached 70% to 80% of the same period of the previous year. Most companies believe that the country's macro-control policies have begun to see results.
However, from the overall development trend in 2009, the first half of the year is no longer expected to exceed last year. Even if it rebounds faster in the second half of the year, it will be harder to achieve greater growth than last year. Most of the view is that sales revenue is roughly the same as in 2008.
The driving force for continued growth remains strong
China's economy is still in a rising stage as a whole, especially from the overall development trend of China's manufacturing industry. The driving force for continued growth is still strong, and the demand for tools, especially for modern high-efficiency tools, will grow. China has become the world's largest tool market and will be just around the corner.
For example, aerospace, domestic large aircraft projects have been implemented, some new processing needs to be solved by efficient tools, such as large aircraft parts have been widely used modern synthetic materials, very light and very wear-resistant, need more durable diamond tools The tools are processed, and there are good business opportunities. However, tool companies should actively adjust the product structure and develop new and efficient tools to meet this need.
For example, the emerging wind power industry is accelerating with strong momentum. The processing of variable speed systems and gears for wind power equipment requires a lot of efficient tools, which is also a big market.
For example, in the mold industry, although the middle and low-end molds, such as toy molds, electronic product molds, and plastic molds, have shrunk dramatically, large-size cover molds, with the accelerated development of new types of automobiles, are in great demand and require high-speed and high-efficiency. Advanced tools to process, these are new growth points.
International peers also face similar challenges and opportunities in the financial crisis. Sandvik Tooling, the world's largest multinational tool group, also experienced a cold winter in 2008 after years of rapid growth. In the fourth quarter of 2008, orders fell by 18%, sales fell by 12%, and profits fell by 47%. Sandvik said that they will be more committed to finding ways and means to invest less, be effective, and have a significant impact on competitiveness. They believe that tool companies should see such demand and trends in the manufacturing industry, go deep into the production site, study the bottlenecks of existing processes, actively contribute to the manufacturing industry, and propose a set of recommendations to adopt modern and efficient tools to improve efficiency and reduce costs. To find a way out for the manufacturing industry to improve competitiveness in the new situation, and to expand the space for the development of tool companies themselves.
Coping strategies and measures
For China's tool industry, the key to transforming the current severe challenges into development opportunities is to seriously implement structural adjustment and industrial upgrading.
The development status of China's tool industry can be said to be a microcosm of the macro economy. On the one hand, the reform and opening up has achieved tremendous development in the past 30 years. However, it should be noted that the current dominant position in the tool industry is still the extensive development of resource consumption; in 2007, China’s high-speed steel consumption was 80,000 tons, and cemented carbide consumption was 16,500 tons. It accounts for 40% of world consumption. However, the sales of cutting tools in China account for only 15% of the global total. This contrast fully reflects the extensive development of the industry and the serious waste of resources.
For example: high-speed steel cutting tools, China produced 4 billion pieces in 2007, which is an astronomical figure in the global tool industry. It is 50 times the output of Japan, a large industrial country (in 2007, Japan produced 0.87 million high-speed steel tools). Most of the tools (80% of the total) are exported as household kits. It costs 65,000 tons of high-speed steel (estimated that 20,000-30,000 tons is low-alloy shoddy high-speed steel) exchange for 850 million US dollars, which is cheaper than the international market price. It is entirely dependent on the state tax rebate to live.
Another example is that carbide cutting tools are the main force of modern high-efficiency cutting tools that are being developed in China. In recent years, it has grown at an annual rate of more than 30%. Some high-end products meet the development needs of modern manufacturing, and the development momentum is good. But the overall level is still not high. For example, in the 165,000 tons of cemented carbide produced in China in 2007, 4,500 tons were used for cutting tools, which is equivalent in quantity to Japan. But the value of making tools, Japan reached 2.5 billion US dollars, China is only 800 million US dollars, less than 1/3 of Japan. This shows that the overall level of domestic cemented carbide high-efficiency tools is still quite different from that in foreign countries. Therefore, the demand for manufacturing has to rely on a large number of imports to solve, in 2007 the import volume reached 750 million US dollars. The sales of major foreigners in China have grown by 30% annually, exceeding the average annual growth rate of domestically produced tools.
The current situation of waste of resources, low-level expansion and extensive operation in China's tool industry is still very serious. Whether or not we can adhere to the principle of structural adjustment in the response to the international financial crisis will be the biggest challenge to the government and enterprises.
3 shock waves suffered by the tool industry
It now appears that the impact of the international financial turmoil on China's real economy is more serious than originally expected. The first wave of impact in the tool industry was first reflected in the Wenling tool market in Zhejiang. The sales of inferior and low-priced tools fell sharply, reaching 30% to 50%. These low-cost tools mainly supply low-end mechanical and electrical products manufacturers, and have little impact on the overall situation of the domestic tool industry.
The second wave of shock was the export tool manufacturer. Since the fourth quarter of 2008, orders have fallen by 50%. However, orders in the first three quarters were abundant, so there was still a large increase in tool exports in 2008. According to the tool, the export of tool exports increased by 26.7% (both in US dollars, the same below. In terms of RMB, only 15%), and the export of measuring tools increased by 9.5%. Looking forward to 2009, it is estimated that due to the reduction in orders, tool exports will have a significant decline.
The third wave of impact on the tool industry is the most serious impact. Basically, from November 2008, China’s influential large-scale mainstream tool companies suddenly saw a sharp decline in sales. The industry described this phenomenon as a “diving-style†decline. The decline has generally reached 40% to 50%. This situation is beyond the original estimate.
Judging from the specific research situation in Shanghai, Zhejiang and other regions, the judgment of the club is that from the perspective of use, there is no possibility of a sudden sharp drop in demand. After all, the equipment of the manufacturing enterprises is still in operation, and the entire manufacturing industry in China does not The situation of large-scale diving shows that various intermediate links, including sales systems, middlemen, and end users have doubts about the development prospects of the macro economy, and everyone is waiting to see. So began to eat inventory, suspended purchases. We also confirmed by some intermediaries and affiliates that they did reduce or stop the purchase, and some end users are also reducing the purchase to reduce inventory. Based on these circumstances, the tool club secretariat and major tool companies exchanged views through communication. The consensus is that the impact of the international financial crisis on China's real economy is indeed very serious and needs to be taken seriously. But some short-term sales data, including the wait-and-see factors of middlemen and end-users, are maintaining operations by reducing inventory. The decline in actual demand is unlikely to drop suddenly by 40% to 50%. Everyone believes that with the implementation of a series of national stimulus policies and the recovery of confidence in the corporate world, domestic demand should have a process of stabilization and recovery. This kind of estimation has already begun to take shape this year. According to the monthly statistical report of the Tool Branch in January 2009, 4 of the 35 major tool companies have sold more than the same period of last year, and the overall sales situation has improved slightly from the end of last year. The sales in January including the Spring Festival factor decreased by 36.7. %. Since February this year, orders and sales of most companies have reached 70% to 80% of the same period of the previous year. Most companies believe that the country's macro-control policies have begun to see results.
However, from the overall development trend in 2009, the first half of the year is no longer expected to exceed last year. Even if it rebounds faster in the second half of the year, it will be harder to achieve greater growth than last year. Most of the view is that sales revenue is roughly the same as in 2008.
The driving force for continued growth remains strong
China's economy is still in a rising stage as a whole, especially from the overall development trend of China's manufacturing industry. The driving force for continued growth is still strong, and the demand for tools, especially for modern high-efficiency tools, will grow. China has become the world's largest tool market and will be just around the corner.
For example, aerospace, domestic large aircraft projects have been implemented, some new processing needs to be solved by efficient tools, such as large aircraft parts have been widely used modern synthetic materials, very light and very wear-resistant, need more durable diamond tools The tools are processed, and there are good business opportunities. However, tool companies should actively adjust the product structure and develop new and efficient tools to meet this need.
For example, the emerging wind power industry is accelerating with strong momentum. The processing of variable speed systems and gears for wind power equipment requires a lot of efficient tools, which is also a big market.
For example, in the mold industry, although the middle and low-end molds, such as toy molds, electronic product molds, and plastic molds, have shrunk dramatically, large-size cover molds, with the accelerated development of new types of automobiles, are in great demand and require high-speed and high-efficiency. Advanced tools to process, these are new growth points.
International peers also face similar challenges and opportunities in the financial crisis. Sandvik Tooling, the world's largest multinational tool group, also experienced a cold winter in 2008 after years of rapid growth. In the fourth quarter of 2008, orders fell by 18%, sales fell by 12%, and profits fell by 47%. Sandvik said that they will be more committed to finding ways and means to invest less, be effective, and have a significant impact on competitiveness. They believe that tool companies should see such demand and trends in the manufacturing industry, go deep into the production site, study the bottlenecks of existing processes, actively contribute to the manufacturing industry, and propose a set of recommendations to adopt modern and efficient tools to improve efficiency and reduce costs. To find a way out for the manufacturing industry to improve competitiveness in the new situation, and to expand the space for the development of tool companies themselves.
Coping strategies and measures
For China's tool industry, the key to transforming the current severe challenges into development opportunities is to seriously implement structural adjustment and industrial upgrading.
The development status of China's tool industry can be said to be a microcosm of the macro economy. On the one hand, the reform and opening up has achieved tremendous development in the past 30 years. However, it should be noted that the current dominant position in the tool industry is still the extensive development of resource consumption; in 2007, China’s high-speed steel consumption was 80,000 tons, and cemented carbide consumption was 16,500 tons. It accounts for 40% of world consumption. However, the sales of cutting tools in China account for only 15% of the global total. This contrast fully reflects the extensive development of the industry and the serious waste of resources.
For example: high-speed steel cutting tools, China produced 4 billion pieces in 2007, which is an astronomical figure in the global tool industry. It is 50 times the output of Japan, a large industrial country (in 2007, Japan produced 0.87 million high-speed steel tools). Most of the tools (80% of the total) are exported as household kits. It costs 65,000 tons of high-speed steel (estimated that 20,000-30,000 tons is low-alloy shoddy high-speed steel) exchange for 850 million US dollars, which is cheaper than the international market price. It is entirely dependent on the state tax rebate to live.
Another example is that carbide cutting tools are the main force of modern high-efficiency cutting tools that are being developed in China. In recent years, it has grown at an annual rate of more than 30%. Some high-end products meet the development needs of modern manufacturing, and the development momentum is good. But the overall level is still not high. For example, in the 165,000 tons of cemented carbide produced in China in 2007, 4,500 tons were used for cutting tools, which is equivalent in quantity to Japan. But the value of making tools, Japan reached 2.5 billion US dollars, China is only 800 million US dollars, less than 1/3 of Japan. This shows that the overall level of domestic cemented carbide high-efficiency tools is still quite different from that in foreign countries. Therefore, the demand for manufacturing has to rely on a large number of imports to solve, in 2007 the import volume reached 750 million US dollars. The sales of major foreigners in China have grown by 30% annually, exceeding the average annual growth rate of domestically produced tools.
The current situation of waste of resources, low-level expansion and extensive operation in China's tool industry is still very serious. Whether or not we can adhere to the principle of structural adjustment in the response to the international financial crisis will be the biggest challenge to the government and enterprises.
Ball Bearing,Deep Groove Bearing,Machining Nut
Coal-Based Activated Carbon,Activated Carbon Co., Ltd. , http://www.nbactivatedcarbon.com