This year's manufacturing PMI will maintain a moderate range
On December 31, 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index.
In 2017, the overall trend of manufacturing PMI increased steadily, with an average annual value of 51.6%, which was significantly higher than the overall level of 1.3 percentage points last year. The stable development trend of the manufacturing industry is more obvious. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 51.6%. Although it fell 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, it still reached the annual average level and maintained a strong expansion momentum.
For the fall in the monthly PMI data, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that the year-end holiday is approaching and the weather is getting cold, which is the off-season of manufacturing production. In the past six years, the manufacturing output index of December has declined in five years. In December 2017, the manufacturing PMI fell 0.2 percentage points to 51.6%, and the manufacturing production index fell 0.3 percentage points qoq to 54%, mainly due to seasonal factors.
Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the highlight of the manufacturing operation in December 2017 was that the domestic and international economic environment continued to improve and the import and export stabilized. Affected by factors such as the overall recovery of the world economy and the acceleration of global trade growth, the new export orders index and import index both rose for two consecutive months. In addition, the high-tech manufacturing PMI was 53.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and its annual average was significantly higher than last year and the overall level of manufacturing, leading the manufacturing economy to high quality.
Zhao Qinghe said that the survey results show that the main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index are 62.2% and 54.4%, respectively, higher than the previous month's 2.4 and 0.6 percentage points, both of which have risen again after two consecutive months. Among them, the prices of petroleum processing and coking industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries have increased significantly.
Chen Zhongtao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, also said that the number of enterprises reflecting the rise in raw material prices in the second half of 2017 has increased significantly. The average proportion of surveyed companies has reached 37%, up from 10% in the same period of the previous year. Correspondingly, companies have reported that transportation costs have also increased.
Chen Zhongtao said that the recent PMI survey shows that enterprises are full of confidence in the economic development of the new year, and the expected index of production and operation activities has risen significantly, reaching a high level of around 59%. It is expected that in 2018, with the focus on high-quality development, new features of economic development in the new era will be highlighted.
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