The photovoltaic industry's major cycle down focus on technology path and policy dividend
2023-12-23 15:08:24
Abstract : First, the current industrial efficiency requirements are getting higher and higher, and second, the national policy is very strong. On April 18, at the SNEC PV conference, Liu Yong, senior vice president of Zhonglai Co., was receiving a report from the 21st Century Business Herald. Said in the interview,...
"One is that the industrial efficiency requirements are getting higher and higher, and the second is that the national policy is very guiding." On April 18, at the SNEC PV conference, Liu Yong, senior vice president of Zhonglai Co., was interviewed by the 21st Century Business Herald. At the time, for the future development trend and direction of the photovoltaic industry, "companies must focus on the cost of electricity, improve the technical content, use high efficiency to drive down costs, find ways to make new energy as cheap as traditional energy, and photovoltaic is Have this potential. After more than ten years of development, China's PV industry has ranked first in the world in terms of new and cumulative installed capacity in 2016.
On the one hand, photovoltaics are considered to be one of the great potentials for continuously advancing energy. Gao Jifan, Chairman and CEO of Trina Solar, stressed at the opening ceremony of the SNEC Forum that the future direction of the energy revolution will be to build an energy sharing mechanism based on data sharing and intelligent interconnection, and to form a new type of energy marketization and sharing economy. Energy system.
On the other hand, in the past two years, the photovoltaic industry has been rugged, the overcapacity in the component market, competition has continued to intensify, and companies lacking technological advantages and management advantages are difficult to maintain their own development. “With 2015 as the tipping point, China has entered a turning point in the long-term surplus of energy supply, and it is a long-term trend,†said You Jiaxun, director and chief analyst of China Merchants Securities. “The competition in the new energy industry will shift from resources to technology in the future. Customer experience improvements and changes."
The long-standing problems in the photovoltaic industry, such as “subsidies are not in place, financing difficulties, single polycrystalline disputes, and technology tend to be homogenizedâ€, are still in the short-term and are not optimistic.
The National Energy Administration of the major photovoltaic powerhouses recently released the 2016 National Report on Monitoring and Evaluation of Renewable Energy Power Development, emphasizing the strategic goal of non-fossil energy accounting for 15% and 20% of primary energy consumption in 2020 and 2030 respectively.
As of the end of 2016, the national installed capacity of renewable energy power generation was 570 million kilowatts, accounting for 34.6% of all power installed capacity, of which 322 million kilowatts of hydropower installed, accounting for 20.2% of all power installed capacity; wind power installed capacity of 149 million kilowatts, accounting for 9.0%; photovoltaic power generation The installed capacity was 77.42 million kilowatts, accounting for 4.7%; the biomass power generation installed capacity was 12.14 million kilowatts, accounting for 0.7%.
According to the financial data of the annual PV-related projects, products and services, global shipments, global grid-connected installed capacity, etc. of the global PV industry in the previous year, on April 16, 365 PV released “2017 Global PV†Among the top 20 global PV companies, the top five global PV companies are GCL Group, Trina Solar, Jinko Energy, FIRST SOLAR, INC., Artes, etc. Chinese companies account for 14 of the top 20 .
"China's PV industry has gradually matured, but China's PV brand is still insufficient for the spread outside the industry." Zhang Song, editor-in-chief of Century New Energy Network, believes that brands can be recognized in order to compete in the fierce market competition. machine.
Technology Iteration and Policy Dividends The Zhonglai shares, which have achieved a market share of 25% in the backsheet business, began to look for new business growth points two or three years ago. "Being a battery with a high core technology content, according to the previous research and development ideas, we focused on and selected N-type single crystal double-sided batteries, which is the most efficient product that can be mass-produced on the market at present." Liu Yong told reporters because With technical difficulties and barriers, the supply chain of this market segment has not yet been cultivated, and it will face the challenge of reducing costs in the future. “The method is to make the silicon wafer in a thin direction and reduce the consumption of silver paste.â€
New technology is undoubtedly one of the most commonly used means of competition for the market. Yang Liyou, general manager of Jinneng Technology, believes that “for power station developers, ensuring a higher yield of the project means lowering the total cost of the project and increasing the total power generation of the project. Component costs account for 45% of the initial investment in the project, and how to select components in project development is especially important."
As currently discussed in the market, "single polycrystalline", the physical properties of the material itself determine that the power generation of polycrystalline components is less than that of single crystal components, while the low light performance of single crystal components is superior to polycrystalline components. According to the PHOTON outdoor long-term tracking report, there is no significant difference in the amount of power generated per watt between single crystal modules and polycrystalline modules. The difference mainly comes from the package quality, packaging materials, attenuation and other factors of the components.
"If there is no foreseeable big upswing in the short-term environment, we may pin our hopes on the release of the dividends of the reform policy." Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomist of Shen Wan Hongyuan, said that on the one hand, he should be alert to the false recovery of the Chinese economy. The misjudgment of enterprises has led to overcapacity and broke the economic balance maintained by the state through photovoltaic subsidies. On the other hand, “to discover the spring of the industry through real industrial concentration or individual cost reduction.â€
In the construction of the new energy system in the future, many companies also hope to "One Belt and One Road", strengthen international cooperation, distributed photovoltaic, photovoltaic poverty alleviation and other fields.
On April 18th, the French energy company ENGIE strategically invested in Liansheng New Energy. The two parties indicated that they will plan to build large-scale photovoltaic bases in resource-rich areas and accelerate the deployment of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects in other regions. By 2020, the planned completion of development will exceed 4GW. Photovoltaic power plant project.
Qi Baofang, chairman of JA Solar, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that Jingao has increased its overseas development and national layout along the “Belt and Road†in terms of product exports. It supplies more than 600 MW to more than 30 PV projects in 65 countries along the “Belt and Roadâ€, accounting for about 12% of the total shipments of Jingao in 2016.
Qi Baofang also said that it is easy for Chinese companies to encounter difficulties in overseas construction financing. "Most of the domestic banking system divides PV loans into restricted areas, and is affected by factors such as Europe and the United States, subsidies continue to decline, and lack of confidence in the future development of photovoltaics. There are doubts about PV overseas projects. There is a lack of linkage and synergy between the upstream and downstream enterprises. It is unfamiliar with the overseas investment environment and is prone to blind investment. The risk is very high. China's overseas investment system is imperfect, the management departments are relatively large, and the policies are scattered.
Cleaning Ball,Rotary Cleaning Ball,Sanitary Cleaning Ball,Tri Clamp Cleaning Ball
Ningbo Wenhan Fluid Equipments Co., Ltd. , https://www.wenhanvalves.com