Shanghai Pufa Futures: Shanghai copper and aluminum futures prices closely followed the spot, not affected by the LME callback

Today, Shanghai copper's main 0512 contract opened at 36,800, a high of 37,220, a low of 36,800, closing at 37,180, 26,642 lots of transactions throughout the day, reducing positions by 1770 lots.

Since today is the later trading day of the 0510 contract, the stock of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 4,469 tons over the weekend to a total of 33,921 tons. The delivery volume of the 0510 contract was 16,150 tons. After the delivery was completed, Shanghai's inventory remained at a level of around 20,000. LME stocks fell by 1,825 tons, now totalling 67,325 tons, and COMEX totaling 3,922 short tons. The total inventory of the three exchanges is still at a relatively low level.

Today, Shanghai Copper has not been affected by the LME’s correction on Friday. It has opened higher and higher, and has broken through the consolidation range of the previous two trading days. The trend is strong. Shanghai Copper strengthened because the ratio of prices in the previous period was lower than that in the LMEs. Therefore, Shanghai Copper did not show the same adjustment as the LME when the LME had a pullback. The trend of Shanghai copper futures is still based on the spot price, but now the spot market is like a double-edged sword: at such a high price, there is a situation in which consumers are reluctant to buy; but due to the price issue in the previous period, the import on the Shanghai spot market There is a shortage of copper. The author personally believes that there is a high probability that there will be tight supply in the market.

LME prices continuously closed out three Zhongyin lines. In the rise from the 2960 market, this happened only in early September when the United States ended up being affected by the hurricane. Therefore, this adjustment will have a relatively long time cycle, and the price fluctuations will be adjusted. The current short-term support is in the price range of 3700 to 3750, and the cycle will continue for 3 to 5 weeks.

With regard to the current price of copper, it is suggested that the operation should be based on a wait-and-see approach.

Today's Shanghai aluminum main contract 0601 broke the previous high of 17270 in the afternoon, and then run up to 100 yuan. The spot price of Chinalco announced higher prices have reached 17,200 yuan / ton, and now suppress the role of aluminum prices is to reach the aluminum cost price after the aluminum price, whether there will be a large number of hedging disk. Therefore, after the price of aluminum reaches the price range of 17300 to 17500, it should wait and see.

(Pufa Futures Zhu Yifan)