Nandu Futures: Strong demand, bullish on the aluminum market

During the eleven long holidays, Lun Aluminum's price continued to rise, and today Shanghai Aluminum's main contract has become popular. Through the recent market performance, the international aluminum market is undergoing some important changes: First, the three-month aluminum premium on the spot month is shrinking, which means that the supply and demand situation of the spot is relatively tight; Second, because the market for cost increases Concerned that strong long-term buying has contributed to the rise in aluminum prices in the months ahead.

The aluminum market is optimistic about the situation mainly from the following fundamental changes: 1, the international supply tends to be tight. As a major supplier of aluminum to the world, China has experienced a significant reduction in exports. In August, net exports of unwrought aluminum decreased substantially to around 10,000 tons. 2. The demand shows signs of improvement. High oil prices have not hindered the rapid development of the economy. The economic growth momentum of the United States and China is still considerable. From China's domestic perspective alone, China's aluminum output continued to grow at a rapid rate. In August, China's aluminum production reached 563,000 tons, an increase of 33% year-on-year; for January-August, it totaled 3.79 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27%. 3, energy prices soared. As the high energy prices and the transmission to downstream industries are conducive to enhancing the effects of inflation, the view that “energy prices lead to inflation” is deeply rooted. In summary, the fundamentals of the international aluminum market are undergoing a positive evolution, but the overall market transition will take time.

Operational Suggestions: Contemplate

(Nandu Futures Lu Xiaohua)