Copper Market Recent Price Trend Forecast
2023-03-10 10:06:18
The price of copper has been falling for the past three months. In the two weeks before this month, the copper's long-term curve has been extended. The higher premium prices and the more volatile long-term curve indicate that the copper market is tightening its demand for copper. At the same time, after all commodity buckets have encountered a large number of open positions, but the longer-term support relative to copper prices still exists, so the long-term curve fluctuates.
First, the market review this month
On the foreign side: The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price first rose in January and the price dropped from a straight line of 7660 US dollars, which was a year-on-year high and fell by more than 800 US dollars. It completely fell to the 7,000 US dollar mark and entered the low consolidation phase.
On January 27, the Fed affirmed that the United States will keep interest rates near zero at short-term rates, but the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City not only voted against objection rates at such a low level, but also decided to end by the end of March. The plan to guarantee securities purchases and exit most emergency plans before February 1 suggests that the Fed’s liquidity contraction will be advanced and policy parties will continue to suppress metal prices. Commodity market investors therefore lost confidence, coupled with the current US economic data is also worse than expected, the market divestment after the increase in profits, the price of copper fell sharply.
Domestic side: On the evening of the 12th of this month, the People's Bank of China decided to raise the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5% starting from January 18, 2010. The market forecast is the earliest time after the Spring Festival. Affected by the news, domestic and foreign commodities fell sharply, and Shanghai Copper broke through the key 60000 yuan/ton. The investor's panic mood. Currently, China’s dominant position in the global market has become more and more obvious. The excess liquidity has caused the signs of inflation to surface gradually. The central bank cuts off the source and adopts a fine-tuning of the deposit reserve ratio to promote credit allocation in the market. To make it not only support the stable development of the economy, but also stabilize the price level, but this measure will undoubtedly cast a shadow on the outlook for the city, and the price of copper will also go from rising to rising.
Spot: Spot copper follows domestic copper prices this month, which is also the first rise. In the early and mid-term, spot copper prices remained high, and due to the impact of tightening monetary policy in China at the end of the year, a strong impact on domestic and foreign copper prices was formed, which dragged spot copper prices all the way down. In order to control the overheating of the economy, the Chinese government has introduced policies that have affected the copper market. As a result, the price of copper has plummeted. The downstream wait-and-see mood has become prominent, and buyers’ interest has been greatly weakened. It is expected that before the Spring Festival, copper prices will continue this phase adjustment.
Second, the economic factors that affect the recent copper price fluctuations
In the short term, the domestic pressure on the formation of copper price adjustments is still a rebound in the dollar and China's credit contraction policy. Abroad, the European market because of a large number of warehouse receipts used for the **, resulting in a drop in warehouse liquidity, which in turn led to the rise in spot prices in Europe shows the tight spot supply. The policy orientations of “Preferential Policy on Border Trade Taxes†and “Drawing Policy on Imports of Raw Materials†will probably affect the price-to-price relationship between the international and domestic markets to a certain extent.
Third, the recent copper price trend forecast
After raising the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions in China, the expectation of interest rate increase began to affect the trend of copper prices. The willingness of funds to strengthen, the price of copper shocks adjustment, and the strong US dollar makes London copper fell sharply, this effect is transmitted to the domestic lead to a rapid decline in domestic copper prices. It is expected that there will still be room for a correction in the price of copper and the price of copper will fall in the short term.
First, the market review this month
On the foreign side: The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price first rose in January and the price dropped from a straight line of 7660 US dollars, which was a year-on-year high and fell by more than 800 US dollars. It completely fell to the 7,000 US dollar mark and entered the low consolidation phase.
On January 27, the Fed affirmed that the United States will keep interest rates near zero at short-term rates, but the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City not only voted against objection rates at such a low level, but also decided to end by the end of March. The plan to guarantee securities purchases and exit most emergency plans before February 1 suggests that the Fed’s liquidity contraction will be advanced and policy parties will continue to suppress metal prices. Commodity market investors therefore lost confidence, coupled with the current US economic data is also worse than expected, the market divestment after the increase in profits, the price of copper fell sharply.
Domestic side: On the evening of the 12th of this month, the People's Bank of China decided to raise the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5% starting from January 18, 2010. The market forecast is the earliest time after the Spring Festival. Affected by the news, domestic and foreign commodities fell sharply, and Shanghai Copper broke through the key 60000 yuan/ton. The investor's panic mood. Currently, China’s dominant position in the global market has become more and more obvious. The excess liquidity has caused the signs of inflation to surface gradually. The central bank cuts off the source and adopts a fine-tuning of the deposit reserve ratio to promote credit allocation in the market. To make it not only support the stable development of the economy, but also stabilize the price level, but this measure will undoubtedly cast a shadow on the outlook for the city, and the price of copper will also go from rising to rising.
Spot: Spot copper follows domestic copper prices this month, which is also the first rise. In the early and mid-term, spot copper prices remained high, and due to the impact of tightening monetary policy in China at the end of the year, a strong impact on domestic and foreign copper prices was formed, which dragged spot copper prices all the way down. In order to control the overheating of the economy, the Chinese government has introduced policies that have affected the copper market. As a result, the price of copper has plummeted. The downstream wait-and-see mood has become prominent, and buyers’ interest has been greatly weakened. It is expected that before the Spring Festival, copper prices will continue this phase adjustment.
Second, the economic factors that affect the recent copper price fluctuations
In the short term, the domestic pressure on the formation of copper price adjustments is still a rebound in the dollar and China's credit contraction policy. Abroad, the European market because of a large number of warehouse receipts used for the **, resulting in a drop in warehouse liquidity, which in turn led to the rise in spot prices in Europe shows the tight spot supply. The policy orientations of “Preferential Policy on Border Trade Taxes†and “Drawing Policy on Imports of Raw Materials†will probably affect the price-to-price relationship between the international and domestic markets to a certain extent.
Third, the recent copper price trend forecast
After raising the deposit reserve ratio of deposit financial institutions in China, the expectation of interest rate increase began to affect the trend of copper prices. The willingness of funds to strengthen, the price of copper shocks adjustment, and the strong US dollar makes London copper fell sharply, this effect is transmitted to the domestic lead to a rapid decline in domestic copper prices. It is expected that there will still be room for a correction in the price of copper and the price of copper will fall in the short term.
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