Construction Information (11.15): Copper and Aluminum
2022-08-22 11:04:35
The "Risk Warning" section of the journal aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It can be used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In practice, investors need to trade according to their own short-term lines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆☆ The reverse run range of new-term closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆☆ The period price is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tip: Eastern: After LME March copper rose for two weeks in a row, it rose again this week and closed at an average of 3,000 US dollars. It closed at US$3019.5/ton, up by US$75.5 from last Friday. / Ton, fluctuations range from 3028.5 to 2918.5 U.S. dollars per ton, and the weekly line is the Zhongyang line with lower leads. Relative to the price of copper, LME3 aluminum was weak, showing a trend of bottoming out. It ended at 1814 US dollars / ton, compared with last Friday, fell 7.5 US dollars / ton, fluctuations in the range of 1832 to 1771 US dollars / ton, The line is a small Yin line with a long lower lead. LME copper stocks continued to show a downward trend this week, with an end-of-stock inventory of 68.525 million tons. LME aluminum stocks also showed a slight decrease this week, with 701,100 tons of stocks on weekends. Inventories of copper in Shanghai Exchange increased by 1,299 tons this week to 24,333,000 tons, and aluminum inventories dropped by 7,509 tons to 1,088,440,000 tons. This week’s strike in Chile’s El Abra copper mine supported the rise in copper prices. At the same time, the continued weakness of the US dollar is also a factor supporting the rise in copper prices. The strong spot market price in the domestic market made the November contract, which is about to be delivered, increase significantly this week and hit a new high. The various monthly contracts have already faced the previous highs, and the domestic short-term cash shortage cannot be changed. This is a major factor in the domestic copper price movements being firmer than that of the external disk. Next week's market forecast: From the current trend, LME March copper has returned to more than 3000 US dollars after the previous crash, the current copper price trend has two possibilities, one is after a short break in 3000 US dollars Turning downwards in time, it is possible to create a false breakout. The other trend is to extend the current rally and hit the previous high point. The news on the spot fundamentals should be worthy of close attention of the investors. Ma Hongqing: In the face of the current inventory consumption situation, international traders have established arbitrage positions in LME futures and the domestic spot market, and managed to force domestic short positions to go out through adjustment of domestic spot premiums, which in turn led to a smooth exit of LME's bullish positions. Under such a trading mechanism, the domestic counter-trading on the LME is merely an intermediary, and the anti-set profit is only equivalent to the meaning of the intermediary fee. The loophole of such a trading mechanism is the breakage of the capital chain of international traders, that is, the copper market demand has significantly decreased, and at the same time, the increase in supply, the spot premium can not be maintained. As far as the current situation is concerned, the fundamentals data can still maintain the trading mechanism of international traders. Of course, the copper price has a position that has a high limit, such as the plunge on October 13. Therefore, it is estimated that the domestic spot price will reach 32000/32500, which will cause a significant head. Thanks to the favorable economic data from the United States and the continued decline in copper stocks in Shanghai, LME copper prices climbed again on Friday. The period price maintained at an integer threshold of 3,000. Both long and short sides were cautious. The Far East cross market arbitrage disk did not appear due to the RMB exchange rate. The uncertainty factor exists, and it is estimated that the scale of the arbour in the latter period will probably decrease. The domestic spot copper price appears to be under heavy pressure around 32,000, and once the December contract stands at 31000, it means that short-selling this contract will be profitable. Technically, there is still room for further upward movement of copper prices. Short-term short-selling, especially for forward contracts, is still risky. We recommend taking a wait-and-see approach. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London November 12 News: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals closed higher on Friday, with copper rising above the $3,000 level, which is higher for one month due to tight supply in the US dollar. Weaken the fund buying and short-covering on the downside. “The copper stayed above USD 3,000 for the whole day, which was very encouraging. The stronger EUR was also bullish,†said a LME trader. The three-month copper rose to 3,017 ton. The US dollar closed at 2,988 on Thursday. Analysts said that the short-selling operation of the Shanghai Futures Exchange pushed the market higher and its impact spread to the LME. It is believed that the December Bullion held by the China State Reserve Bureau (SRB) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange 36,115 tons of the site, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange has a total inventory of only 24,233 tons. The SRB may be able to lend its long position to the market to ease tight supply in the short-term. A LME trader said, “There is no selling from China today. They seem happy to open their positions. "The spot/three-month inverse price difference is reported at 110/120 US dollars. LME stocks fell to 68,625 tons, a low level since the middle of 1990. "Because the LME stock has less than 80,000 tons, the spot price Extremely volatile, spot and The copper price in the month has a negative spread, "says Peter Hollands of Bloomsbury Minerals Economics. The dollar fell against both the euro and the yen, the market ignored the positive US economic data, and still focused on the record US current account deficit. The dollar/euro has been in early October. A depreciation of 6% due to market concerns that the United States cannot attract enough funds to cover its huge current account deficit. At 1700 GMT, the euro/dollar is currently trading at about $1.2961/69, down from a record high of 1.3005 on Wednesday. The three-month aluminum is quoted at $1,813.50. , rose 27.50 US dollars. Three-month nickel closed at 14,700 US dollars, soaring 700 US dollars. COMEX copper market reports: New York, November 12 news: New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) copper futures closed to a one-month high on Friday, subject to Good U.S. economic data and a weaker U.S. dollar boosted traders. Copper prices rose to a one-month high on Friday, as US retail sales and consumer confidence data were all positive, and the U.S. dollar gave up all gains in the past two days. The strike of the copper mine in Chile and the fact that the copper stocks set a lower level since 1990 have also helped the rally. A trader said, “I think the rally is today. Half of the credit should be attributed to the weaker US dollar. Since the dollar started its new wave of decline, all factors have benefited copper. "The index's December copper rose 2.20 cents to 1.3945 pounds per pound, just a step away from the daily high of 1.3960." Spot copper for November delivery rose 3.55 cents to $1.4280. The other monthly contracts closed around 0.40-2.40 cents. The estimated final volume was 15,000 lots, up from Thursday's 11,640 contracts.
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