Construction Information (10.08): Copper, Aluminum

The "Risk Warning" section of the journal aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It can be used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In practice, investors need to trade according to their own short-term lines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of the new price closing may be less than 2% from the new price closing. ☆ ☆ The reverse price range from the newer closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆☆ The period price is reversed from the new closing price. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the break: Orient: Copper and aluminum: 10.1 During the long holiday period, LME copper in March showed a trend of rising shocks, and hit a new high for a few days after the long holiday. Driven by the price of copper, the price of aluminum also increased. The situation created a new high for several years. On the 10th of the 10th, LME copper stocks increased by more than 8,000 tons, which caused the price of copper to fall by a certain extent. However, the stocks continued to drop in the following days and the market worried about the threat of Chile's Codelco Copper Company's strike. The market was concerned about the tight supply of copper. Spot/three months During the copper premium season, it reached US$162.5/tonne yesterday, and it was 147.50 US dollars/ton yesterday, triggering fund buying. The copper price hit a new high yesterday, rising to 3071 US dollars at one time, and closed lower in the late afternoon. During the long holidays, crude oil prices rose sharply and hit a record high. Crude oil continued to rise to 53 US dollars in a row yesterday. High crude oil prices are bound to have an adverse impact on the global economy and will affect industrial production in Europe and the United States. This is bad, but copper prices have almost nothing to reflect. At the same time, during the long holidays, the U.S. dollar is also relatively strong. However, the price of copper does not reflect much. It can be seen that some external factors have not affected copper prices in the short term. The major factor affecting copper prices in the later period is inventory. Judging from the performance of copper prices during holidays, the market has entered a cyclical cycle with short covering in the market, which has led to a rise in futures prices. The rise in futures prices has once again attracted entry into fund buying, and further printing of large-scale short covering Recently, copper prices will remain high. Ma Hongqing: Copper: Stimulated by the high spot cash premium and the possible strike of CODECCO's Norte copper mine, LME copper prices rose strongly during the National Day holiday. Copper prices once set a new high since January 1995 on Thursday trading. Looking at the current inventory situation, it is unlikely that copper prices will fall in the short term. Technically, the pressure level of copper price lies within the range of 3080/3120, and the support is located at the 2980 line. Shanghai CU501 is expected to test daily limit prices on Friday, and investors are advised to wait and see. Aluminium: During the National Day holiday, LME aluminum prices rose strongly and reached a new high during the year. However, due to the fact that the aluminum price has not been well consolidated after the early expansion of the warehouse, the momentum of further aluminum price rise in the short term is slightly higher. Inadequate, but technically shows that aluminum prices have a strong support at the 1800/1820 line. Shanghai AL AL ​​412 is expected to test the pressure level of 17300 on Friday, and further pressure is placed on the 17500 line. It is recommended that investors hold long positions in their hands. When the futures price falls back to the 17200 line, they are considered to buy again, with a stop loss of 17,000. Overseas Express: During the 11th trading day when the China (Shanghai copper) market was absent, the London copper price surged from 2990 to 3065, setting a new high for the current round, closing at 3038 on October 6. Combined with the review of foreign brokers on this period of time and other market holiday operations, there are mainly the following promotion factors: On the supply side, due to the fact that the inventory is already low, and continues to decrease, plus two copper mines Workers may have a strike, and they also promoted the buying of copper; Fund buying into the market boosted copper prices, and short covering helped to boost the external market; economic data released during the period also favored copper prices. US business According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, construction spending in the United States rose by 0.8% month-on-month in August, higher than the 0.4% increase expected by economists. The increase of this data indicates that the demand for copper has increased, which will support the price of copper. The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 58.5 in September, slightly better than economists had expected. Although the lack of market external objective factors in this section of the market, including the dollar, interest rates, stock market, economic indicators, crude oil, copper strikes, and technological breakthroughs, we tend to increase the exposure of the holiday market. Summarized in the market for the boosted water market, the spot price of the spot price in March/October 6 was 152 US dollars/ton, and the spot price of London copper was 3,200. From a technical point of view, due to the increase in copper prices in the past three weeks, there are fewer amendments to the downtrend, there may be a market overbought, there may be technical corrections in copper prices, but because the fundamentals are in good condition, there may be a large number of bargain hunting discs, and the market also exists quite Substantial potential fund buying, if it re-enters the market, may push forward copper prices continue to rise. The key factors affecting the price trend of the next few days of this week are Chinese traders returning to the market to end the National Day holiday and the US’s employment report to be announced on the 8th. The following is a detailed breakdown of the daily transactions: London, September 30. News: Supported by the buying of funds and the effect of adjustments to positions at the end of the third quarter, the nickel price of the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark rose sharply in three months on Thursday. 10%. Traders said that all trading instruments began to rise after midday, mainly due to investors adjusting their positions at the end of the third quarter. Short covering and short stop-loss orders made a lot of profits. Analysts said that due to the decrease in market participation, nickel trading volume is relatively low, and prices tend to fluctuate significantly. If $16,500 is effectively broken, the next target is $16,850 and $17,150. The short-term support is expected to be $15,500. The labor salary disputes between AngloAmerican Platinum and Impala Platinum, South Africa’s leading nickel producers, also provide some support for nickel prices. The spot/three-month nickel price premium rose from US$64/tonne on the 29th to US$90/tonne. On the 29th, LME nickel stocks increased by 648 metric tons to 14,112 metric tons. The three-month benchmark copper price rose nearly 1%, and broke two intraday highs of 3,000 US dollars, but did not close above this point. Spot/three-month copper price premiums rose sharply from US$115/tonne on the 29th to US$147/tonne. Codelco, a state-owned copper company in Chile, set the price of copper in 2005 to be US$115 per ton for Rotterdam, and US$60 per ton in 2004. Analysts believe that manufacturers will increase the price of premium water means that in 2005 global copper demand will still be greater than supply. The benchmark aluminum price rose by 2.4% in three months and was higher by 1,850 US dollars. The benchmark three-month tin price rose 2.6% to a higher level of $9,150. The benchmark zinc price rose by 3.3% in the three months and broke through the important resistance at $1,120, but closed below this point. NEW YORK, September 30: The December copper price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) edged up slightly on Thursday's New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), but it was hit by the fund buying and strong economic data for nine years. High Point. December copper rose 30 points to close at 139.60 cents, hitting a nine-year high of 140.80 cents. It was 138.05 cents lower and 140.80 cents higher throughout the day. Some traders believe that any current correction is a good time to step in. Analysts believe that the higher than expected Chicago manufacturing index constitutes some support for the futures price of copper. In September, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 61.3, compared with 57.3 in August. The previous estimate was 58.0. The index above 50 indicates that manufacturing is expanding. Dealers said that high oil prices and weaker US dollar against the euro are also factors that drive prices higher. At the same time, declining stocks also support prices. LME copper stocks have now fallen back to August levels, and COMEX copper stocks have been in decline. On the 30th, LME copper stocks fell by 275 metric tons to 93,550 metric tons. On the 29th, COMEX copper stocks fell by 565 short tons, to 49,704 short tons London October 1. News: On the London Metal Exchange (LME), most of the base metals prices fell on Friday on pressure from profit taking. Copper, lead, aluminum futures and nickel futures prices all closed lower. Analysts believe that today's decline does not mean the end of this round of rising prices, but into the short-term adjustment phase. Copper, aluminum and nickel continued their upside to their recent highs today, indicating that fund buying is still quite active and the upward trend has not been destroyed. Tight supply factors still exist and still support prices. The three-month benchmark aluminum price fell by $29.50. Traders said that from a technical observation, if aluminum prices can effectively break through 1,850 US dollars, they can regain their upward momentum. Under the pressure of profit-taking, the nickel price in the benchmark three months also fell. It fluctuates in the range of $15,050-16,400 throughout the day and is expected to find resistance at $17,700. The labor wage dispute between AngloAmericanPlatinum and ImpalaPlatinum, South Africa's leading nickel producers, remains the focus of investors. At present, there has been no progress in the negotiations between the employers and employees. The benchmark three-month copper price fell by 3 US dollars to close at 2,994 US dollars. The resistance is still large at 3,000 US dollars. The benchmark three-month tin price rose by $17.50 to close at $9,145 and it was higher by $9,250 throughout the day. Analysts said that if they can effectively break through this point, it is expected to continue on the upside in the short term. The three-month benchmark zinc price was supported by technical support and rose to a high in April, but then closed flat with profit-taking. NEW YORK, September 30: The December copper price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) edged up slightly on Thursday's New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), but it was hit by the fund buying and strong economic data for nine years. High Point. December copper rose 30 points to close at 139.60 cents, hitting a nine-year high of 140.80 cents. It was 138.05 cents lower and 140.80 cents higher throughout the day. Some traders believe that any current correction is a good time to step in. Analysts believe that the higher than expected Chicago manufacturing index constitutes some support for the futures price of copper. In September, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to 61.3, compared with 57.3 in August. The previous estimate was 58.0. The index above 50 indicates that manufacturing is expanding. Dealers said that high oil prices and a weaker US dollar against the euro are also factors that drive prices higher. At the same time, declining stocks also support prices. LME copper stocks have now fallen back to August levels, and COMEX copper stocks have been in decline. On the 30th, LME copper stocks fell by 275 metric tons to 93,550 metric tons. On the 29th, COMEX copper stocks fell 565 short tons, to 49,704 short London October 1 news: Underlying pressure from profit-taking, most of the base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed lower on Friday. Copper, lead, aluminum futures and nickel futures prices all closed lower. Analysts believe that today's decline does not mean the end of this round of rising prices, but into the short-term adjustment phase. Copper, aluminum and nickel continued their upside to their recent highs today, indicating that fund buying is still quite active and the upward trend has not been destroyed. Tight supply factors still exist and still support prices. The three-month benchmark aluminum price fell by $29.50. Dealers said that from a technical perspective, if aluminum prices can effectively break through 1,850 US dollars, they can regain their upward momentum. Under the pressure of profit-taking, the nickel price in the benchmark three months also fell. It fluctuates in the range of $15,050-16,400 throughout the day and is expected to find resistance at $17,700. The labor wage dispute between AngloAmericanPlatinum and ImpalaPlatinum, South Africa's leading nickel producers, remains the focus of investors. At present, there has been no progress in the negotiations between the employers and employees. The benchmark three-month copper price fell by 3 US dollars to close at 2,994 US dollars. The resistance is still large at 3,000 US dollars. The benchmark three-month tin price rose by $17.50 to close at $9,145 and it was higher by $9,250 throughout the day. Analysts said that if they can effectively break through this point, it is expected to continue on the upside in the short term. The benchmark three-month zinc price was supported by technical support and rose to a high in April. However, it subsequently closed under news of profit-taking in New York on October 1st: Short-covered by short-term after midday Driven by, the December copper price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) rose slightly on Friday. It was 138.50 cents lower and 140.40 cents higher throughout the day. The December copper price rose 80 points to close at 140.40 cents. Analysts said that they were pressured by profit-taking early in the morning, but they were also boosted by short-covering after midday. At the same time, US economic data also support the price of copper. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, construction spending in the United States rose by 0.8% month-on-month in August, higher than the 0.4% rise expected by economists. The increase of this data indicates that the demand for copper has increased, which will support the price of copper. The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 58.5 in September, slightly better than economists had expected. The negative impact was the September University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which was revised down to 94.2, with an initial value of 95.8, down from 95.9 in August. Traders believe that, despite short-term declines in profit taking pressure, stocks decline is still the driving force for medium-to-long-term gains in copper prices. What is worth noting is that today's higher and lower points are within the 30-day fluctuation range. Therefore, the market is worried that there will be lack of strength and short-term pressure to call back. On the 1st, LME copper stocks fell by 1,750 metric tons to 91,800 metric tons. On the 30th, COMEX copper stocks fell by 226 short tons to 49,478 short tons. London, October 4: As the fund buying interest has subsided, copper and aluminum inventories have increased, and the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal was trading lightly on Monday. The market closed mixed. Profit-taking disk emerged last week, and the number of fund buying decreased. On the 4th, the increase in LME copper, aluminum and nickel net inventory further encouraged the liquidation. On the 4th, the inventories of copper, aluminum and nickel increased. Analysts believe that the higher base metal prices will help increase the inventory, which is the performance of the market's normal adjustment function. The sharp increase in the US dollar also led to a decrease in the buying of basic metal market funds, because the strong US dollar will reduce the demand for base metals in non-dollar countries. On the 4th, LME copper inventories increased by 8,350 tons to 100,150 tons, mainly due to the increase in Singapore's inventory. Due to sparse buying of funds, the benchmark three-month copper before the LME floor trading has already fallen below 3,000 USD/metric ton. Analysts said that the increase in copper inventories is not unexpected because of the high delay in delivery. Many traders have already left the market to wait and see as the future stock situation decides again. The benchmark three-month copper price rose slightly to US$2,985/ton from the mid-day low of US$2,956/ton. The three-month benchmark aluminum price edged up slightly. In early trading, the price of copper fell due to pressure, followed by copper prices. In the afternoon, aluminum prices regained some of the uptrend. LME aluminum stocks increased slightly by 1,950 tons to 682,775 tons, and traders believe that the main reason is that China's inventories have increased. LME nickel inventories rose by 606 tons to 14,928 tons, putting nickel prices under pressure. At present, the strike movements of Anglo American Platinum Corp. and Impala Platinum Holdings, South Africa, have not caused the market to worry too much about nickel production. Since the dealers believe that the zinc price is underestimated, there is a potential for zinc price increase. There are still trade and speculative buying in the three-month benchmark. However, under the increasing trade selling pressure, the zinc price did not break through the upward resistance of $1,140/ton. NEW YORK, Oct. 4 (Reuters) - The strengthening of the US dollar on Monday and the increase in copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) forced the closing of the New York Mercantile Exchange's (COMEX) copper futures lower. December copper fell 70 points to close at $1.3970 a pound. Analyst Dan Vaught said that the strong US dollar is one of the reasons for suppressing the lower prices of copper. The stronger US dollar will increase the price of copper in non-Dollar countries, which will hurt its demand for copper. At the close of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the euro was quoted at 1.2276 against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose by 0.83 points to 88.46. The increase in LME copper inventories of 8,350 tons to 100,150 tons also weighed on copper prices, with net inventories in Singapore increasing by 7,550 tons. Forte expects the December copper resistance range to be between 1.40 and 1.14150, hitting an overnight high of 1.4080, with a support range of 1.3850-1.37. London, October 5 news: Most London Metals base metals continue to fall overnight At the close, the index contracted slightly, with the three-month benchmark copper contract closing down slightly at US$4.5/ton to US$2,979/tonne, and traded at US$2973-3001.5/ton within the session. Since most of the base metals on the London Metal Exchange closed slightly lower on the 4th, some analysts had expected that the decline will further expand on the 5th, but the LME pre-opening trade shows a good potential for speculative buying support, although most funds have left the market The market is still confident of maintaining the higher prices last week for a longer period of time. Analysts said that the base metal price is expected to rise, but the market expects that due to higher cyclical prices, there may be more liquidation and profit taking this week or later. As prices have risen, trade sales have increased, suppressing prices once again falling back to flat levels. Due to the lack of new news boost, the market direction is not clear, and the reduction in liquidation is due in part to the fact that China is in the National Day holiday. Currently, the market is still paying attention to the published LME inventory data and does not talk about the future level of inventory changes. Speculative buying increased during the pre-market trading period, copper and aluminum futures rose, aluminum trading was more active, but copper did not establish a clear direction, the aluminum stabilized at pre-upgrade, holding steady at 1,810-1,845/55 In the new high range of USD/metric ton, the closing price rose by US$10 to US$1833/ton. Gothenburg and Liverpool delivered a net increase of 1,266 tons to 16,194 tons, putting the benchmark three-month nickel pressure in early trading, but it held steady for most of the time after midday, and some long positions at the end of the day dragged down the price and fell by US$100/tonne. 15550 US dollars / ton. As the market believes that the price of zinc has been underestimated, the establishment of a long position in the fund has further supported the zinc price test at 1,140 US dollars/ton, but failed to break through that level, closing down 5 US dollars/ton to 1122.5 yuan/ton. Lead continued to rise overnight on the 5th, intraday test above 940 US dollars / ton, closing slightly higher 1 US dollar to 927 US dollars / ton. LONDON, Oct. 6 (Reuters) - Short-covered by short-covering, the majority of base metals other than tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed higher on Wednesday, gaining considerable gains on lower volume transactions on the same day. A trader said: "These funds are also operated by well-known funds. They returned, and there is no sign that they will leave." Another trader said: "It can't be stopped. The money keeps coming into the market. He said:" All The fund and its associated funds are all buying at the March high of US$3,055 on copper. Before the LMEweek (a week-long meeting) arrives, I estimate that the price may increase, but at the moment it also leaves a lot of room for the downside. “The benchmark three-month copper is close to the key resistance level of US$3,050/ton, which closed up 51.5 US$ to US$3035/ton, and hit a six-month high of US$3,045/ton in the afternoon. Short-term profit-taking, after-hours price Once again, it rose to US$3,048/t. As the supply of copper was tight, the spot/three-month premium was increased from US$132.5/tonne on the 5th to US$162.5/tonne to US$152/tonne, analysts said. The premium and copper prices will prompt the LME copper stocks to increase.The expected three-month copper resistance at the benchmark is at US$3,060/tonne, above this level, it may be tested at US$3,080/ton, with support at US$3,000/ton. Below this level, it may test $2,980/ton. The popularity of the lead market was also positive. The former hit a nine-year high and the latter reached a contract high in the afternoon. Analysts worry that if copper fails to break the 3,055 level, it may signal the formation of a triple top pattern. An analyst of the brokerage company Triland Metals Carlsson said in the report that it is necessary to dispel the possibility of copper forming a triple top at 3,055. He expects to close above 3,060 in the short-term. The spot/three-month copper inverse spread is about $150, slightly earlier from $162.50. The latter is also a relatively high level since April. The benchmark three-month lead contract reached a record high of US$952/ton, which was the highest level since the contract was changed to US dollar pricing in 1992, and closed up by US$23.5 to US$949.5. / / Ton Aluminium and zinc futures were hit by record highs triggered by fund purchases.The benchmark three-month aluminum futures rose $35 to close at $1,858/tonne. Due to technical corrections in period prices, analysts expect to see profit taking. However, fund buying is more active and the selling will not last long. The above-mentioned second trader said: "It seems that there is a global buying wave, and the fund is buying into copper, aluminum, and lead." Affecting the number of futures this week Key factors in price movement Chinese traders are returning to the market after the National Day holiday is over, and the US’s employment report will be released on the 8th.Analysts said that due to the increase in base metal futures prices over the closing level on September 30, Chinese traders may return to the market to cover their short positions. The benchmark three-month zinc still closely follows the trend of other base metals, setting a new high of US$1,157.50/ton in 7 months, closing at US$22.5 to US$1150/ton, and expecting the next resistance at US$1,175/ton. Higher, zinc price growth has been limited in the past two years London, October 7 news: Most metal prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed higher on Thursday, continued fund buying and short covering boosted aluminum and copper futures New highs. Affected by the strike threat from Chile's Codelco Copper Company, the market worried about the tight supply of copper. The three-month copper boosted the benchmark and hit a new 9-year high of $3,071/ton on the same day, but the closing price rose only slightly, to US$3,046/ton. Spot/three-month copper discounts at $147.50/t may lead to an increase in LME copper stocks in the near term. Mainly by the fund account will transfer foreign exchange and stock market funds to the futures market boost, the majority of base metal futures prices hit a new high, traders believe that fund buying will continue to increase, the price will continue to rise. Analysts expect more short-covering, and the continued rise in the base metal futures price will once again attract fund buying into the market, triggering more massive short-covering, showing a healthy cyclical trend. The benchmark three-month aluminum futures reached a record high of US$1878.5/ton in nine years, but it ended slightly lower at the close of US$1,847.5/ton due to profit-taking and copper gains. Nickel broke the recent resistance at a record high of $16,900/tonne, a high level since January. The benchmark three-month nickel closed up 395 US dollars at 16,375 US dollars / ton. The benchmark three-month zinc and lead futures enjoyed strong gains. Zinc hit a four-year high and closed up 30 US dollars at 1157.5 U.S. dollars per ton. The next resistance is expected to be 1,175 U.S. dollars per ton. The benchmark three-month lead rose 33.8 US dollars to 959.8 US dollars / ton. This week due to the China National Day holiday, the base metal futures market is less liquid. The market is also concerned about the changes brought about by the return of the Chinese traders to the market and the 8th US monthly employment data. NEW YORK, Oct. 7 (Reuters) - Speculative buying boosted speculation that high-level copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) hit a new contract high on Thursday and was later suppressed by profit taking. Analysts said copper supplies remained tight, but some traders reduced long positions before the US announced employment data on the 8th. December copper closed up 45 points at $1.4275/lb. In December, copper futures broke through the fund buying and boosted the contract price by 1.4385 USD/lb, which was followed by profit-taking and suppressed price drop. The recent high oil prices and the tight supply and demand of copper will continue to provide support for copper prices. On the 7th, the London Metal Exchange’s copper inventories fell by 1,725 ​​tons to 93,625 tons, and the New York Mercantile Exchange’s copper inventories fell by 249 tons to 47,475 short tons. Analysts expect copper stocks may continue to decline. As copper prices hit new highs, with less daily trading volume, analysts said that under such circumstances, it is difficult to push up prices further. Expected copper resistance range is 1.43-1.46 US dollars / pound, the initial support level is 1.4195 US dollars / lb, the second support is slightly lower than the level of 1.41 US dollars, which is the starting point for the trend this week, last week, copper prices fell below 1.4080 level. At 20:30, Beijing time on the 8th, the United States will publish the non-agricultural employment report in September. The market is paying close attention to its impact on the US dollar, which will have an impact on the price of copper. It is expected that the number of unemployed in the US will increase by 145,000 in September. The unemployment rate remained at 5.4%, which was the same as in August.

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