China's PV industry maintains 90% market share in the EU

According to the price commitment, in the future, China's PV products exported to Europe will only rise by 0.05 Euro-0.07 Euro compared with the previous average price per watt, and the floating ratio is 9.6%-14%.

On July 27, the official website of the Ministry of Commerce sent a message saying that China and the EU have reached a price commitment on China's trade dispute over PV products. According to reports, this price commitment reflects the will of the majority of Chinese companies, so that China's PV products continue to export to the EU under the trade arrangements negotiated between the two sides, and maintain a reasonable market share.

However, although the news stated that “price commitments reflect the will of the majority of Chinese companies”, they did not disclose the specific content of price commitments, such as prices and quotas.

On July 28th, on the specific details of the price commitment, the reporter learned from an authoritative source who did not want to be named, “In the future, the price limit of China’s PV products exported to Europe will be set at 0.57 Euro/W, and this The 'restricted' policy will be implemented until 2015. In addition, the European Commission will also set a cap on the total amount of China's PV products exported to Europe, with a theoretical value of 7GW/year. The final price commitment rules will be obtained in the agreement. After the formal adoption, it will be announced around the deadline of August 6th.

In the industry's view, the EU made a huge concession in this negotiation. Through joint efforts, China and the EU have almost reduced the losses caused by this "the largest friction case in the history of Sino-European trade" to a minimum.

Nearly 90% of the PV market is left to China

On July 27th, the Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shen Danyang made a speech on the "frequent friction case involving the largest amount of Sino-European trade history" and expressed his appreciation and welcome.

In fact, the Chinese PV industry is quite surprised by the results of this price commitment. According to Qian Jing, the global brand director of Jingke Energy, who was interviewed by the reporter, compared with the previous anti-dumping duty of 47.6% on China’s PV products exported to Europe. The fact that the EU has made substantial concessions in the price commitments is exactly what surprised us.

It is understood that the average selling price of China's PV products exported to Europe is about 0.5 Euro / watt - 0.52 Euro / watt. Based on this calculation, China's commitment to lower the price of 0.57 yuan / watt, only the previous average price per watt It has risen by 0.05 euros to 0.07 euros, and the floating ratio is about 9.6%-14%. If the EU implements the 47.6% anti-dumping tariff on China's photovoltaic products, it means that the average selling price of China's PV products exported to Europe will be Up to 0.74 Euro / watt - 0.77 EUR / watt.

In addition, in the “EU's total export quota for PV products in China, the total cap is 7GW/year”, Qian Jing analyzed, “The new installed capacity of PV in Europe last year was about 12GW-13GW, but with the photovoltaics of Germany, Spain, Italy and other countries. The continuous reduction of subsidies and the reduction of overall market demand in the future have become inevitable. According to our forecast, the overall demand for the European PV market will be only 8GW/year-9GW/year this year and next year. Therefore, this price commitment is allocated to China 7GW. /year, equivalent to 80%-90% of the market share left to China's photovoltaic."

Crystal silicon PV price decline is limited

In fact, in this price commitment, there is still a very important point that is often overlooked by everyone, that is, "the limit of China's price of PV products exported to Europe will be set at 0.57 euros / watt." Until 2015.

According to the above-mentioned authoritative source, "We have tried our best to pursue this restrictive policy until 2014, but we will eventually make concessions and implement it until 2015."

However, in Qian Jing’s view, even if this restrictive policy is implemented until 2015, it will be released for three years, and it will gradually release China’s photovoltaics, especially polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon. The negative impact of photovoltaic products (in the next three years, if the production cost of photovoltaic products is reduced, resulting in lower prices of other competitors' PV products, Chinese PV companies that still have to comply with the lower limit of 0.57 Euro/W will gradually lose their competitiveness).

"The price of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products mainly depends on the two factors of polysilicon price and production cost. Under the premise that there is almost no room for decline in polysilicon prices, the possibility of a sharp drop in the price of photovoltaic products in the next three years will basically come from production. The cost has plummeted. However, according to the maturity of the current production technology of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products, within three years, the space for its decline is quite limited, or such impact is that Chinese PV companies can cope with.” Qian Jing said.

The EU strictly guards against Chinese enterprises and “curves save the country”

It is worth noting that this price commitment is different from the previous US “double-reverse” sanctions against China PV. In the future, Chinese PV companies may no longer adopt the “curve to save the country” approach and avoid restrictive policies.

"In the text of the EU and our price commitment agreement, most of the content is to discover and stop the "curve saving the country" measures that Chinese companies may adopt." The above-mentioned insiders revealed that the EU has proposed that once found Chinese companies take Any way to avoid the price limit of 0.57 euros / watt, in violation of the policy, will immediately impose a 47.6% anti-dumping tariff on all PV products exported to Europe. However, after this, with our strong efforts, this program was changed to impose a 47.6% anti-dumping tariff penalty on companies that violated the policy.