11 listed real estate companies' annual performance pre-happy sales growth slowed down
Data show that as of November 7, 20 A-share listed real estate companies disclosed their full-year performance forecast, 11 pre-history. Some small and medium-sized real estate enterprises were forced to withdraw from the market due to financial pressure, no new land and new construction projects. Among the 54 housing companies that disclosed their annual sales targets, eight companies have exceeded their full-year targets in January-October, and the completion rate of 13 companies is less than 70%. According to industry insiders, since 2018, the financing costs of the real estate industry have been high, and leading enterprises have not been spared. The tightening of domestic bond issuance channels is limited. The issuance of corporate bonds is mostly listed in Hong Kong stocks. At the same time, the interest rates of overseas issuance of corporate bonds generally exceed 8%.
Performance differentiation
According to the data, among the 20 housing enterprises that have released the annual performance forecast, 7 are pre-increased, 3 are slightly increased, 1 is renewed, 11 companies are pre-happy, and the pre-happiness ratio is 55%; The first loss is 2, and the first is reduced by 7. In addition, the two companies are uncertain about their performance. From the current situation, there is a certain degree of differentiation.
The performance of large-scale housing companies is generally expected to be good. Taking Rongsheng Development as an example, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 6.913 billion yuan to 8.065 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%-40%. It is expected that the 2018 billable project will increase settlement income. From January to October, the company completed sales of 67.9 billion yuan, which exceeded the sales of 65.78 billion yuan in 2017.
Jinke shares expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 3.007 billion yuan -40.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%-100%.
Although some housing companies have significantly increased their performance, they are not from the growth of their main business income. Taking Chinese companies as an example, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2.5 billion to 2.8 billion yuan, an increase of 581.62%-663.42%. For the main reason for the growth of the performance, the company said that in the fourth quarter of 2018, some of the projects in the assets reorganization of the company are expected to meet the company's carry-over income conditions. The net profit generated by injecting assets accounts for about 80% of the company's 2018 net profit. about.
Some companies expect a first-year loss for the year. Zhongfang Co., Ltd. said that due to the decrease in the saleable houses of the main real estate business, it is expected that the accumulated net profit for the whole year may be a loss. Tongda Entrepreneur said that the investment income from the transfer of CIC’s equity in the same period of the previous year was RMB 24.73 million. In the current period, there was no equity transfer investment income, and the fair value of financial assets held was large. It is estimated that the accumulated net profit for the whole year may be Loss.
It is worth noting that China Housing has gradually divested its real estate business. In the semi-annual report of 2018, the company pointed out that in the first half of the year, the company did not have new land reserves and new construction projects, and the development funds were tight. The main business of real estate faced operational difficulties. The company is undergoing major asset restructuring. If the restructuring is successful, the main business will be completely changed.
Some companies have lost their foreign investment, which has a significant impact on their performance. Taking Daming City as an example, the company expects the full-year net profit to decline significantly compared with the same period of the previous year, mainly due to the financial deleveraging and capital market fluctuations in the current year. The bad debts of the leasing business in the company's gold control sector rose, provisioning provision Significantly increased from the previous year, the loss of securities investment led to operating losses.
Sales growth slowed down
According to the statistics of the “Top 100 Rankings of Chinese Real Estate Enterprises in the January-October 2018†published by the Kerry Research Center, the overall sales volume of the TOP100 housing enterprises in the first 10 months was 7,829.79 billion yuan. Among them, the accumulated sales flow of the top ten real estate enterprises reached 3,319.38 billion yuan, an increase of 349.05 billion yuan compared with September, accounting for 42.39% of the sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises. The sales volume of 24 real estate companies in the first 10 months exceeded 100 billion yuan. Country Garden, China Evergrande and Vanke are in front.
The above-mentioned institutions pointed out that although the overall sales scale of the top 100 real estate enterprises is still growing year-on-year, the single-month performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises in October decreased by 10.5% from the previous month, and the sales slowdown was more obvious. Compared with the same period of last year, the single-month growth rate of the top 100 housing companies has continued to slow down since the third quarter, from the high of 58.1% in July to 26.1% in October. At present, the release of demand for home purchases has reached a staged bottleneck, and the market wait-and-see mood has become stronger. It is expected that the market will maintain a generally stable downward trend in the next two months.
From the perspective of real estate companies that have announced their annual sales targets, the completion rate of most companies in January-October is between 80% and 90%, including companies such as Sunac, Poly, and Longhu. Some companies did not sell as expected. The first October sales of the first shares, Huaxia Happiness, Greenland Holdings and Taihe Group accounted for only about 60% of the annual sales target.
Six real estate companies such as China Evergrande and Shimao Real Estate completed more than 90% of their annual sales in January-October. Taking China Evergrande as an example, the company sold a total of 50.11 billion yuan in January-October, with a cumulative contracted sales area of ​​47.618 million square meters; the monthly sales amount in October was about 53.04 billion yuan, and the contracted sales area was about 4.981 million square meters. The cumulative sales amount from January to October accounted for approximately 91.12% of the 2018 sales target. In 2017, the company completed sales of 510 billion yuan.
Some companies benefited from the key layout of second- and third-tier cities, and the annual results were well completed. Shimao Real Estate announced on the evening of November 5 that from January to October, the Group's total contracted sales reached approximately RMB 136.03 billion, an increase of 73% over the same period of last year; the total contracted sales area was 8,278,600 square meters, an increase of 77% over the same period last year. . The average sales price in the first ten months was 16,400 yuan per square meter. The annual sales target for 2018 is 140 billion yuan, which has exceeded the sales target by 97% in the first ten months.
CICC pointed out that in the first half of 2018, Shimao Real Estate received a total of 7.8 million square meters of land reserves (selling 4.5 million square meters). Among them, most of the land reserves are located in the core second- and third-tier cities within the major urban agglomerations. The average floor price dropped from 11,000 yuan/square meter in 2017 to 6,000 yuan/square meter, mainly due to the diversification of land acquisition channels and changes in urban layout.
It is worth noting that eight real estate companies including Xincheng Holding, China Jinmao, Jinke Group and Zhongliang Real Estate have completed their annual sales targets for 2018.
High financing costs
Since 2018, the financing costs of the real estate industry have been high overall, and leading enterprises have not been spared. The tightening of domestic bond issuance channels is limited. The majority of corporate bonds are issued by Hong Kong-listed real estate enterprises, while the interest rates of overseas issuance of corporate bonds generally exceed 8%.
Taking China Evergrande as an example, the company announced that it has issued a total of US$1.8 billion in bonds, and the proceeds are mainly used to refinance existing offshore debt. Among them, the bills due in 2020 totaled 565 million US dollars, the interest rate was 11%; the bills due in 2022 totaled 645 million US dollars, the interest rate was 13%; the bills due in 2023 totaled 590 million US dollars, the interest rate was 13.75%. Xu Jiayin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Evergrande Group and its wholly-owned Xin Xin (BVI) Limited, each subscribed for $250 million in 2022 notes and $250 million in 2023 notes, totaling $1 billion.
According to Founder Securities, in 2017, Vanke's comprehensive financing cost was 5.10%, Poly was 4.82%, Golden Land was 4.56%, New City Holdings was 5.32%, Merchants Shekou was 4.80%, Rongsheng was 6.50%, Beichen Industry was 5.94. %.
At the same time, the tide of debt repayment is approaching, and related housing companies have to bear high financing costs and temporarily take a breather. Founder Securities pointed out that since 2018, housing enterprises will usher in a period of concentrated payment of credit bonds. The scale of credit bonds to be repaid from 2018 to 2021 was 168.4 billion yuan, 407.6 billion yuan, 536.4 billion yuan and 677.4 billion yuan respectively. The pressure on redemption increased year by year.
Yan Yuejin, chief analyst of the Yiju Research Institute, told the China Securities Journal that in recent years, the financing costs of the real estate industry have increased year by year. This is related to the company's increased financing channels and the introduction of high-cost financing methods to prevent subsequent funding pressures.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that before 2015, the financing costs of housing enterprises were generally optimistic, similar to the relatively loose issuance of corporate bonds. After 2015, the management and control gradually increased, and the financing pressure has gradually escalated since 2016. From the current situation, equity pledge practices are more common. However, due to the large fluctuations in stock prices, the continued decline has led to increased risk of such financing. Some companies can only achieve leverage reduction through the transfer of projects.
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