The second quarter earnings of the building materials industry rebounded, focusing on improved demand expectations

With the gradual increase in shipments in the middle and late March, cement companies' sales in the second quarter will continue to improve, but from the same period of last year, the growth rate of cement demand is expected to be 7%, while the growth rate of fixed asset investment is maintained at 20%. -8%, which is about 10% lower than the same period in 2011, and demand is still weaker than in previous years. Demand for the glass market is still slowly recovering in April, and the overall profitability of the industry is still in the bottom. It is expected that the profit in the second quarter of 12 years will start to pick up slowly. In the second quarter, the demand for building materials will continue to improve under the stimulation of real estate sales, fine-tuning of macro policies and restructuring. As the fundamentals bottom out, the industry's downside risks are small, and the extent of valuation repair depends mainly on future policy cashing and project recovery progress. Cement sector: March production rebounded seasonally, and cement production rebounded sharply in March. From January to March, the national cement production was 398 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and the growth rate was 2.5% higher than that in January and February. Among them, the output in March was 179 million tons, an increase of 7.9%. From the top 10 groups, cement production in January-December 2011 increased by 26.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6% from January to November. Specifically, the cement production growth rates of Hailuo Group, Southern Cement, Zhonglian Group, Huaxin Group, Jidong Group and Sinoma Group from January to December were 19.8%, 16%, 12.2%, 16.2%, 24.9%, and 69.3, respectively. %, except for the southern cement, the growth rate of cement production in the other groups from January to December has slowed down from January to November. From a regional perspective, the growth rate of northwest, southwest, and south-central production was the highest in January-March, with growth rates of 17%, 13.2%, and 11.2%, respectively, exceeding the national average. The growth rate of production in East China, Northeast China and North China is relatively low, 2.9%, -0.1%, and -1.3%, respectively. As of April 20, the national high-standard cement market price was basically the same as last month, at 375 yuan / ton, and prices vary from place to place. Among them, North China and Northwest China were raised by 1.6% and 9.1% to 388 and 370 yuan/ton respectively. East China and Central South were down by 6.1% and 2.9% to 351 and 369 yuan/ton respectively. The southwestern region was relatively stable and maintained at a low level of 315 yuan/ton. . In terms of inventory, demand has rebounded significantly since late March, and national inventories fell by 8.8% to 67.1%, with inventory in the northwest and northeast falling significantly, down 16.6% and 11.3% respectively. Cement solid investment continued to decline in January-February. In January-February, the growth rate of national fixed assets investment in cement fell by 13.6% year-on-year. The newly started production line and investment production line continued to decrease in the first quarter. From a regional perspective, the growth rate of cement investment in the northwest region continued to maintain a high level, with a year-on-year increase of 120.6% in January and February, and a 5.8% increase in the central and southern regions. In the rest of the region, cement investment declined significantly. The investment growth rate in North China, Northeast China, East China and Southwest China decreased by 32.7%, 58.5%, 25.1% and 21.8% respectively. Glass sector: profit is still at the bottom of attention to changes in demand According to WIND statistics, the national flat glass output in March was 63.69 million heavy boxes, 5.4%, 6.6% year-on-year and month-on-month growth, down 6.7% from the same period of the same period of the previous year; In the first three months of 2012, the national total output was 180 million heavy boxes, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year, which was 6.5% lower than the same period of the same period of the previous year. We believe that mainly due to the obvious impact of macro-control and the sluggish demand in the first quarter of 2012, the overall demand growth rate of the industry is low. The average price of flat glass in March fell by 0.9 yuan / square meter to 13.2 yuan / square meter, the ring, the year-on-year decline was 6.3%, 30.1%. Although the decline in soda ash prices led to a certain degree of decline in overall costs, the accelerated decline in glass prices was more pronounced, leading to continued narrowing of gross profit. It is estimated that the average gross profit in March is about 0.9 yuan / heavy box, down by 4.0 yuan / heavy box, and according to the statistics released by the Bureau of Statistics, the average profit per piece of flat glass in the 12-year period from January to February is a loss of 4.1 yuan. Although the overall demand for the industry began to recover due to seasonal reasons, the overall recovery rate and speed are still slow. In March, the industry's quarterly inventory production fell 3.2% to 46.7% from the previous month, which was at a historically high level. The highest point in history occurred in January and May of 2009, which was 53.2%. At present, the inventory production ratio is recovering with demand. It is in the midst of a high-down trend. At the same time, the industry inventory also fell from the historical high of 30.16 million in February to 29.58 million heavy boxes, down 1.9% from the previous month. According to industry historical experience, after the gross profit margin fell to around 5%, the recovery cycle averaged 9 months. In March 12, the gross profit margin of the industry has fallen from 7.6% at the beginning of the year to 4.3%, which is basically the same as the historical low. We expect that with the elimination of backward production capacity in the industry, the shutdown of small enterprises and the warming of demand in the future, supply will gradually be controlled and demand will gradually improve, and gross profit will enter a nine-month slow recovery period. Sales rebounded, prices stabilized, demand is expected to gradually improve. In the first quarter of 2012, the profit of the cement industry fell sharply. The main negative growth rate of listed companies reached 67%. The gross profit margin of the industry in January and February was 13.4%, and the net profit margin was only 2.16%, mainly affected by the macro tightening. The demand is weak and the price is falling. In the middle and late March, the company's shipments gradually increased. We expect the sales volume to continue to improve in the second quarter. It is expected to continue to improve in the second quarter with the rebound in the peak season, the price stabilized, and the inventory continued to fall. The fundamentals continued to improve and the profit rebounded significantly. The risk of declining performance has been gradually released, maintaining the industry's “optimistic” and paying attention to the profitability bottoming area with the expected price increase. We believe that the main line of investment in the second quarter is a rebound in the fundamentals, and demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to gradually optimistic about the industry demand in early April. By April, cement outperformed the broader market by 2.4%. At the same time, demand growth is expected to continue to improve in the second quarter, driven by the rebound in real estate sales, fine-tuning of macroeconomic policies, and the resumption of infrastructure. The market demand for the glass sector is still slowly recovering in April. On the supply side, Chongqing Fuyao has ignited a 00t/d production line. At the same time, under the influence of the South China and East China regional conferences, the average price of glass rose by 2 yuan/heavy box to 65.8 yuan/heavy box, with a range of 1.9%. The overall profit of the industry is still in the bottom area. It is expected that the gross profit margin will be 2.2% in mid-April and the price downside will be small. We expect that corporate inventory will continue to decline in the future. We believe that the industry's profit is at the bottom, and in the short term, most companies' losses are still serious. At the same time, as the market demand continues to improve slightly, it will stabilize the price and increase the profitability of the industry. It is expected that the profit will start to rise slowly in the second quarter of 2012. According to industry historical experience, after the gross profit margin fell to around 5%, the recovery cycle averaged 9 months. The follow-up trend demand reversal still needs to pay attention to the changes in real estate, mainly recommend CSG and Qibin Group (601636).

Vibration Meter

Wuxi Winsun Automation Instrument Co., Ltd , https://www.jswxwinsun.com