The industry in the Yangtze River Delta has experienced downsizing and downtime
Capital withdrawal from the industrial sector, the transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises
Recently, the "Economic Information Daily" reporter found that compared with the first half of this year, the inherent "difficulties" such as high cost, difficult financing, few orders, and difficult employment have not been resolved, and the loss of confidence in the industry and economic situation has become a part of business owners. The "new puzzle." In addition, the “transformation†road placed in front of the business owners is actually taking shape as the enterprises turn to other investment industries such as microfinance companies, and the “hollowing†of the industry has an expanding trend. Experts believe that once the company is pessimistic about the future expectations, with the idea of ​​cash as the king to reduce production capacity or stop production, stop production, the name of the company in fact, will have a greater impact on economic growth and social stability.
The initial emergence of "hollowing" of industry
Recently, the reporter learned that due to the lack of export and domestic demand, some production enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta have experienced downsizing, suspension of work, and suspension of production. Some enterprises are more pessimistic about economic recovery and industrial prospects. They have begun to actively shrink capacity and even sell machines and lease. The so-called “transformation†of the factory building did not actually appear, but instead turned to operating a microfinance company or an investment industry.
According to the relevant person in charge of the Development and Reform Commission of Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, from 1 to August, Wuxi canceled a total of 1,953 enterprises, including 440 manufacturing enterprises, accounting for 22.5%, ranking second in various industries, mainly for industrial support. Small business. At the same time, the city has more than 12,000 new domestic enterprises, including the largest number of investment companies, roughly estimated to account for about 30%. Basically, each township has a small loan company. This shows that a large amount of funds have been withdrawn from the real economy and turned to various types of equity investment, microfinance companies and so on.
In the second half of 2011, several Shanghai textile and garment enterprises also raised more than 100 million yuan to open a small loan company in Jiangsu, and all of them were loaned to real estate development enterprises in less than one month, with a revenue of more than 25%.
According to Zhu Zhengping, president of the Shanghai Federation of Industry and Commerce Textile and Apparel Chamber of Commerce, according to the current situation, the textile and garment industry, which is purely engaged in foreign trade order production, still has two years of survival time in Shanghai, and it will not be more than five years before it is transferred to other places. It is becoming a trend to turn to the investment company from the industry to find a way. Now some companies have lend their own funds to small loan companies, which can get 15% of the profits, while the main business is shrinking, and even selling machines and renting factories, the industry has existed in name only.
The consequences of the industry's "hollowing" have already begun to appear in Wenzhou. Zhou Dewen, president of the Wenzhou SME Development Promotion Association, told reporters that under the temptation of profits, in the past two or three years, quite a number of enterprises in Wenzhou have drawn production funds and invested in private lending. Recently, Wenzhou's private lending cases have increased, many well-known companies have closed down, and the boss has fled. Since the beginning of this year, more than 50 people have fled in Wenzhou's large-scale business owners, and small business owners have run more. In late September alone, there were three suicides in Wenzhou City due to the debt crisis being forced to go to the road, resulting in 2 deaths and 1 injury.
The situation faced by Wenzhou enterprises has also attracted the attention of the central government. On October 4, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council went to Wenzhou to investigate the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and asked the government to focus on small and micro enterprises as a key support object, strengthen supervision and guidance of private lending for small and medium-sized enterprises, take effective measures to curb the trend of high-interest loans, and properly handle enterprises. Inter-guarantee, corporate capital chain breakage.
Manufacturing confidence is not enough to become a new problem
"There is no endogenous growth momentum. There is no real grasp of the transformation. Now there is still some money left. If you close it later, these enterprises will not even have the capital. The Shanghai textile and garment industry is shrinking, from the peak of 550,000 troops to the present. Only 20,000 people, there may be only a few thousand workers in the front line. The most important thing is that in April this year, the confidence of many manufacturing companies was lower than that during the 2008 financial crisis, so that some enterprises have shut down and turned Preparation." Dong Qinxia, ​​chief engineer of Shanghai Bridge Textile Yarn Co., Ltd. said.
From the sales data of Suning Appliance, Gome and other home appliance chain enterprises from January to September, in the Yangtze River Delta region, especially in the Shanghai market, the sales volume of single stores decreased year-on-year, generally falling by more than 10%. A home appliance chain in Shanghai The person in charge lamented that in the past 10 years, the industry has felt that the market is difficult to do for the first time, so it is not "powerful."
The head of the East China region of a consumer electronics manufacturer in South Korea said that the company's sales have continued to decline this year. As the price of the consumer electronics market has changed too fast, companies are afraid to have too much inventory, and the factory production plan can only take a step. What is most worrying now is that the consumer sluggishness will continue until next year or even the next year. Even if the company increases its investment, it will not return, and sales will still not improve. Sharp Trading (China) Co., Ltd. also admitted to the reporter that its air-conditioning production plant in Shanghai has been shut down for several months due to the sluggish market sales.
Be wary of the expansion of the industry's "hollowing"
Zhou Dewen said that there are three obvious signs of industrial hollowing out: first, a large amount of capital fleeing from industry; second, a large number of enterprises have migrated outside and even developed abroad; third, many enterprises use the industrial platform to obtain bank loans, but no special funds. Instead, invest in mines, real estate, etc. At present, the industry's "hollowing" has an expanding trend. In the past few years, the phenomenon of real estate investment and high-interest loans from the real economy in Wenzhou has been transferred to inland provinces. “Many traditional manufacturing companies have insufficient confidence in the industry and the industry is unstable. This is very worrying.â€
According to Zhou Dewen, Wenzhou currently has about 360,000 small and medium-sized enterprises. In the first half of the year, 20% of enterprises were in a semi-stop or suspended state. Now this number has expanded to about 30%. If you don’t save again, there may be 40% after the Spring Festival next year. SMEs stop working or semi-stop work. In this case, talking about transformation is even more idiotic.
According to the results of the survey of 1,525 enterprises in the province by the Zhejiang Bureau of Statistics and the Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the business climate index of Zhejiang Province in the third quarter was 133, down 6.8 points year-on-year, down by 2.6 points from the previous month. Boom" interval. The Entrepreneur Confidence Index fell slightly to 123.7, which was 10.5 points and 4.1 points lower than the same period last year and the second quarter of this year. Since the fourth quarter of last year, it has shown a quarterly decline.
Small enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region are also facing greater pressure to survive. Recently, Peking University National Development Research Institute and Alibaba conducted on-the-spot visits to 95 small enterprises, 11 professional markets and 15 local banks in 6 counties and cities of the Pearl River Delta, and 2889 small enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region through online questionnaires. The results of online research show that the rising cost of raw materials has led to a sharp decline in the profits of small enterprises in the Pearl River Delta. Compared with 2010, the average profit has decreased by about 30% to 40%. The cost of labor has increased and operational difficulties have increased.
In addition, the survey shows that factors such as shrinking domestic and foreign orders and exchange rates are also squeezing corporate profits. Small businesses can only sustain the accumulation of difficulties in the good economic situation in 2009 and 2010. 72.45% of small businesses are expected to have no profit or small losses in the next 6 months, and 3.29% of small businesses are expected to lose money or close down in the next 6 months. The decline in profits has become the most difficult hurdle for small businesses this year.
Preventing "hibernation" companies from consuming economic vitality
The "Economic Information Daily" reporter found that after facing many pressures, these enterprises did not choose to withdraw directly from the industry, but did not act, did not withdraw, and did not cancel. Such "hibernation" enterprises may devour economic vitality.
"Hibernation" companies frequently appear
Economist Yu Sheng resistance said that 60% to 70% of Chinese SMEs are facing severe survival difficulties, the remaining 10% are upgrading, and only 20% are in transition. According to the report, the competent government department said that there was no large-scale bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises, because there may be a large number of “half dead and alive†enterprises, but they did not go to the management department to cancel.
“When the global financial crisis was in 2008, everyone was in the 'winter', but some companies 'hibernation' have not woken up yet.†Zhu Zhengping said that the recent Shanghai Federation of Industry and Commerce Textile and Apparel Chamber of Commerce and member units contacted and found that 20% to 30% of companies have actually stopped working, stopped production or are no longer in the industry.
Wan Legang, chairman of Shanghai Siduo Clothing Co., Ltd. told reporters that the company currently has only one warehouse of more than 1,000 square meters in Shanghai, an office, and plans to change careers in two years. Previously, he has closed three garment factories in Pinghu, Zhejiang, Huai'an, Jiangsu, and Jiading, Shanghai. There are only three customers in Europe and America.
There are even more companies that have virtually no innovation and transformation, and can only change their way in the capital market. In the 18 years since the listing of a listed company in Jiangsu Province, the major shareholder has been replaced six times. The main business has changed from chemical fiber to wool textiles, from wool textiles and real estate to biomedical products, and now it will be converted into coal chemical industry. Financial commentator Ye Tan said that such a "shell company" that relies on frequent reorganization of money is difficult to bring a substantial turnaround at the operational level. Even many listed companies can only rely on government subsidies to make a profit.
Zhang Huiming, director of the Enterprise Research Institute of Fudan University, told reporters that the fundamentals of the economy in the Yangtze River Delta region are still good, but only a small number of enterprises have problems. SMEs face severe pressures on survival and have attracted the attention of government departments. Various localities have also introduced a number of policies to support small and medium-sized enterprises. The key now is to implement these policies, eliminate batches, upgrade batches, and transform batches. The company's risk resistance will be stronger.
Government assistance should have a choice
For some enterprises who are in danger of not acting, not withdrawing, or canceling the "hibernation" behavior, some experts believe that they should be treated differently. The assistance is not a part of the market. The market mechanism of the survival of the fittest should be played to prevent the "hibernation" enterprises from devouring. Economic vitality.
"Enterprises are in a 'zombie' state, just like vegetative people. Although they are alive, they need help at all times. It is hard to say if they can wake up." Ye Tan, a well-known financial commentator, said that government subsidies are barely profitable and cannot be formed by subsidies for many years. Enterprises that have their own hematopoietic mechanisms should have been eliminated. In the 1990s, the Japanese economy gradually entered a recession, and the Japanese government implemented various protection policies. As a result, a large number of “zombie†enterprises that should have withdrawn from the market survived, leading to a longer recession. During the global financial crisis in 2008, countries saved the enterprises and financial institutions that should have closed down, resulting in a large number of “hibernation†companies, which caused the financial crisis to last for a long time.
Zhang Huiming believes that the SME group itself has the characteristics of high elimination rate. It is normal for most SMEs to grow up and not to be strong. Experience shows that the proportion of newly established SMEs in bankruptcy within five years is about 80%, and most of them are failures caused by the company's own factors, such as enterprise management, architecture design, process, marketing, financing, etc. It may lead to the failure of the company as a whole. The financial crisis played a catalytic role and accelerated the elimination of some enterprises.
Ge Dongbo, deputy director of the Shanghai Office for the Promotion of SME Development, believes that with reference to foreign experience, it is generally necessary to provide policy support to three types of enterprises: First, high-tech enterprises, which have high growth potential and focus on direct financing. Listed to raise development funds; Second, labor-intensive enterprises, the state has certain policy support for such enterprises to lend, thus ensuring social employment; Third, enterprises that are not well-funded due to sporadic factors such as financial crisis, such enterprises If you get a guarantee and support, you may have a chance to return to life.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, also believes that government assistance should guard against moral hazard and avoid adverse selection mechanisms that encourage irresponsible investment and financing. In the long run, the high interest rates of private financing and the high risks they face are corresponding. The development of high-yield bond markets should be fostered, and market-oriented management of such financing needs should be carried out.
Accelerate the pace of opening up the financial market
In response to the current situation of small and medium-sized enterprises, many experts believe that on the one hand, it is necessary to prevent “hibernation†enterprises from dragging down the real economy, and to resolutely eliminate backward, high-energy and high-pollution enterprises, and on the other hand, to grow in line with the requirements of industrial development. Enterprises help them to reduce corporate tax burdens, relax credit, and encourage more private capital to enter the financial sector to solve the financing difficulties of SMEs.
Experts believe that the fundamental way to solve the financing difficulties and financing of SMEs is to speed up the opening of the financial market, allow private capital to enter more financial sectors, and open more microfinance companies. At the same time, it is necessary to implement differentiated interest rates and lower the lending rate for SMEs in the real economy.
Guo Tianyong, a professor at the School of Finance at the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that in the past few years, whenever the financing of SMEs was encountered, the call for setting up small and medium-sized banks would be very high, but once the financing was difficult to retreat, the voice would become thinner. This time it seems to be no exception. In order to prevent the reincarnation of “good wounds and forget the painâ€, a more realistic and more actionable solution is needed. Therefore, the establishment of small and medium-sized banks can start from a small loan company, and may consider selecting a group of outstanding microfinance companies to directly flop into banks.
In addition, Zhou Dewen, president of the Wenzhou SME Development Promotion Association, also proposed to lower the threshold for SMEs to go public. Nowadays, enterprises are over-reliant on indirect financing. More than 80% of the funds come from banks. If the monetary policy tightens, the enterprises will not survive, and 80% of foreign countries will be directly financed.
Yan Xiaodong, executive director and general manager of Shanghai Huijin Financing Guarantee Co., Ltd., suggested that bond financing can undoubtedly reduce financing costs. The issuance of corporate bonds needs to lower the threshold and further marketization is needed. At present, the most important problem for SMEs to pass bond financing is that SMEs have insufficient credit and insufficient credit issuance. Therefore, they are financed by collective bonds and collective trusts, but the scale is not large, and they need government subsidies and financial support from local governments.
Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that the “financial + fiscal tax†policy for micro and small enterprises can alleviate the contradiction between current business operations and financing to a certain extent, but there are still two points worthy of attention. First, the policy is only for micro and small enterprises, and medium-sized enterprises, which account for 30% of the loan scale, have not received policy support. These enterprises may have greater impact on economic and employment activities. Second, the CBRC in May this year. The similar policies that have been announced have not been effective. The reason is that under the dual influence of the tight monetary environment and the economic downturn, bank lending is still widespread. The impact of fiscal and taxation policies is relatively slow, so whether this policy can really alleviate the operational dilemma of SMEs, the implementation of policy measures is very crucial.
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