Steel price trend forecast

According to the latest data from China Iron and Steel Association, in 2012, 80 key iron and steel enterprises included in the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association ended the profit in 2012. For the whole year of 2012, the 80 key steel companies listed in the China Steel Association reported only a profit of 1.58 billion yuan. Compared with the 88.62 billion yuan in the same period of 2011, the profitability of the 80 key steel enterprises has shrunk by 98.22%. During the year of 2012, a total of 23 steel companies suffered losses. The losses of loss-making enterprises were as high as 28.92 billion yuan, and the losses of loss-making enterprises were 18.3 times of the profits of key steel companies during the same period.

The decline in profitability of the steel industry directly led to a slight decrease in the accumulated investment in the steel industry in 2012 compared with the same period in 2011. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2012, the national ferrous metal ore smelting and rolling processing industry completed an investment of 505.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2% (14.6% in the same period of 2011). This is also the completion of the national steel project since 2007. The amount of investment (accumulated annual growth) dropped for the first time. At the same time, in 2012, the total investment for the ferrous metal mining industry was 152.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% (the same period in 2011 was 18.4%).

In mid-January, the key statistics for iron and steel enterprises at the end of the current period were 10.72 million tons, an increase of 717,000 tons from the end of the previous period. On the one hand, the current market demand is insufficient, and the enthusiasm of merchants to pick up goods is not high. In particular, the variety of building materials and seasonal factors have a greater impact. On the other hand, near the Spring Festival, the railway transportation capacity is tight, and the steel mills are blocked by fire transportation, resulting in a slight inventory in the factory. There is an increase.

The data show that in December 2012, the national crude steel output fell to 1.86 million tons, only 7.9% higher than the high point paper of the year, and it quickly rebounded in 2013. The estimated daily crude steel output of the whole country in mid-January was 1.924 million tons. . Although the current January crude steel production is still a certain distance from the previous year's high, it is a relatively high level in the same period in recent years and there is a further upward trend. At the same time as production was at a high level, social stocks of major steel products continued to rise since mid-December, and the total inventory of the top five varieties reached 154.9 million tons, an increase of 32.2% from the previous low, including increases in rebar, wire rods, hot-rolled and medium plate. It was 39.9%, 46.7%, 31% and 28.3% in that order. Taking into account the basic stagnation of market transactions before and after the Spring Festival, steel stocks will continue to rise, then the pressure to destock will increase.

At the same time, because of the weather and other reasons, the steel stocks in the northern ports are very difficult. It is reported that the steel stocks in Tianjin Port have reached about 1.05 million tons, which is the highest in recent years. The stocks of key large and medium-sized steel plants increased by 13.4% from the beginning of the year to 10.72 million tons. In addition, Tangshan billet stock with the highest market activity in recent years reached 1.15 million tons, the highest since 2011.

The steel mills have learned lessons from previous experiences, and the joint effort to push up the steel industry cannot maximize profits. Instead, it has caused raw material prices to rise steadily, and production and processing profits have been drastically reduced. At present, due to the ups and downs of previous steel prices, trade Traders are very cautious about placing orders. Once prices fall, they often use abandoned orders, causing huge pressure on steel mills. For steel mills, steel prices remain properly fluctuating to maximize profits, and a single increase for steel mills. There is no benefit, so it is understandable that steelmakers remain cautiously optimistic about the current steel prices.

New Spring Steel Price Forecast

As the “defoaming” of steel prices is basically completed, the self-elusion function of the market has wiped out most of the traders whose strength is not good. The traders that have retained them basically have a certain strength and experience, and the degree of concentration of market resources has increased. From the current situation, the diversification of traders' businesses has already come to an end. In the early days, real estate has huge market and policy risks, so in 2013, steel traders will return to their main business operations one year. Judging from the recent ** disk representation of market information, most traders have entered the active camp and completed the winter storage in the ** disk. The pre-high volatility has also changed from the previous unilateral decline, but it exists after the holiday. A question of cashing in profit.

In terms of the trend of steel spot, the key is to see how the stock of steel mills is digested, whether steel demand can be released after the Spring Festival, and once the holiday due to funds and climate improvement and other reasons caused by the short-term concentrated release of steel demand, steel prices rise inertially Opportunities are great, but due to the large gains in the early part of this year and the long rise time, post-holiday gains may not be as large as in previous years. I expect the construction steel will have an increase of RMB 100-200/ton, and the fast-forward operation will be maintained. The strategy will be the consensus of the market, which will also cause changes in the liquidity of funds and resources in the market. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the trend of steel prices in the near future. Once there is high stagflation, this will be a good opportunity to enter the market.