People's Daily: China's economy is still motivated
The People’s Daily published a paper saying that the Chinese economy will encounter some difficulties in 2019, but the economic momentum is still good. The new economy will have a growth of calf. Innovative products represented by artificial intelligence, innovative Internet technologies represented by 5G, and emerging service industries represented by new media constitute the basic framework of China's new economy at this stage. It is foreseeable that new products and new technologies will accelerate their industrialization in the new year and release an increasingly powerful driving force. At the same time, macroeconomic policies will exert steady growth, and the sharp drop in international crude oil prices is also a positive. The labor cost of China's manufacturing industry has greater flexibility, which can offset the negative impact of the decline in foreign trade exports on the economy to some extent. .
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The Chinese economy will encounter some difficulties in 2019, but the pessimistic argument is untenable, and it is necessary to comprehensively and dialectically look at the economic situation of the new year.
At the end of the year, there are many academic activities for forecasting and forecasting the economic situation in 2019. The consensus is that the Chinese economy will continue to maintain a healthy and healthy development trend in 2019. The Chinese economy will encounter some difficulties in 2019, but the economy is still motivated.
The new economy will have a growth of calf. Innovative products represented by artificial intelligence, innovative Internet technologies represented by 5G, and emerging service industries represented by new media constitute the basic framework of China's new economy at this stage. It is foreseeable that new products and new technologies will accelerate their industrialization in the new year and release an increasingly powerful driving force. Innovative products and innovative technologies are the fundamental driving force for economic growth, and the larger economies can be shaken by them. A century ago, railway technology was emerging around the world, and the world economy began a period of rapid development. Today, 5G technology has already dawned, and it is based on China's leading position in the world. From 5G to the Internet of Things, to auto-driving cars, and the Internet of Everything, the unknown space will open, and new and unimaginable formats will be born.
Macroeconomic policies will exert steady growth. First, a proactive fiscal policy will be more effective, and a prudent monetary policy will contribute more to the real economy. For example, the personal income tax reduction policy will not only bring about income effects, but also promote consumption upgrade to a certain extent. At the beginning of the new year, the central bank cut the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point, and the market liquidity will remain reasonably abundant. Second, policies that encourage investment are expected to produce new effects in the new year. China's investment growth rate has basically bottomed out after a reasonable return in recent years. In 2019, it is expected to rebound under the influence of a series of encouraging investment policies. Among them, the scale of investment within the central budget will further increase, and attract more social capital to expand the scale of investment. Local government special bonds will be used more in major projects under construction. A number of foreign projects with individual projects in the billions or even billions of dollars are expected to land in the first quarter.
The sharp drop in international crude oil prices is also a positive. China is the world's largest importer of crude oil. The price of imported crude oil is falling, which is conducive to reducing the production cost, enhancing competitiveness and improving efficiency of enterprises that use petrochemical products as raw materials. Over the years, international crude oil prices have risen all the way, once soared to $140 a barrel, and now fall back to around $60. Under such market conditions, China's more than 700 million tons of oil refining capacity will be further released. Historically, the decline in energy prices such as oil has often accompanied the subsequent rapid economic growth, and the sharp rise in oil prices has often led to economic difficulties. The world economic crisis triggered by soaring oil prices in 1973 is an example.
The labor cost of China's manufacturing industry has greater flexibility. This can offset to some extent the negative impact of the decline in foreign trade exports on the economy. Since the reform and opening up, along with the process of industrialization, rural labor has flowed to cities and towns. However, China also has special conditions different from the industrialization process of Western countries. First, many migrant workers in urban areas also have homesteads and contracted land in rural areas. Therefore, there is a certain degree of rural labor return to the city, that is, migrant workers return home; second, many The rural labor force is more flexible and can accept lower wages, thus releasing some labor dividends. Therefore, even if the foreign economy encounters more severe conditions, the impact on processing trade and processing and manufacturing will not be as serious as some scholars have analyzed.
The economic trend is the sum of the actions of all economic activity participants and is the common result of countless main economic activities. The behavior of economic agents depends on confidence and expectations. Among them, entrepreneurs are the main traders of the economy, and they are often the groups that are vulnerable to confidence. Therefore, confidence is more important than gold, and it is more important to guide economic participants to form firm confidence than gold. We have a bigger advantage than Western countries in this respect.
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