A shares are shocked by "two trillions" after 3000 points, the market is facing a test
On March 4th, the Shanghai Composite Index opened directly at 3,000 points, and the intraday price rose more than 3%, and the highest rose to 3090.80 points. Although it fluctuated in the afternoon, it finally closed at 3017.58 points, and the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets broke through another trillion yuan.
The "Daily Economic News" reporter particularly noticed that Guizhou Moutai hit a record high in the intraday trading on March 4 (previous reinstatement, the same below), and the total market value once broke through the trillion yuan mark.
The Shanghai index has achieved a "small goal" that has risen to 3,000 points. How will the market outlook be interpreted? In particular, on March 4th, the high-yield fell, and the K-line of the Shanghai Stock Index closed a long shadow. In this regard, there is a private placement, which is a typical "fairy way" form, which means the upward test of the test.
The Shanghai index directly opened at 3000 points
A-shares continued to be strong in early trading on March 4, and the Shanghai index directly broke through 3,000 points. The intraday price rose more than 3%, and the highest rose to 3090.80 points. It fluctuated in the afternoon and finally closed at 3017.58 points. The root is long on the shadow line. The Shenzhen Component Index and the GEM Index closed up 2.36% and 3.31% respectively, but the K-line pattern also closed a longer upper shadow line. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges broke through another trillion yuan, reaching 1,046.5 billion yuan.
For the K-line of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on March 4, there was a private placement explaining to the reporter of “Daily Economic News†that this was called “Xianren’s Way†in the textbook. At the current stage, the form of "Fairy Directions" appears to indicate that it is an upward attack test, mainly to detect the pressure above and the stability of the chip, which also implies that further attacks are a high probability event.
Jun Mao Capital Partner Li Shouqiang told reporters that the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 3000 points, mainly due to the repair and extreme pessimism since 2018. The motivation comes from two points. First, the macro is good. Secondly, the domestic policy is blessed, and these policies have been carried out in an orderly manner. This series of positives has injected confidence and liquidity into the market.
From the perspective of quantitative analysis, the overall valuation of the market has been at a historical low, which is the biggest advantage. The overall low valuation of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong markets has shown that the downside is limited and the potential for future growth is greater. This round of rise cannot be defined by a simple “bounce†or “reverseâ€, and the index has seen a technical bull market. However, this round of rising is more "no extreme Thai", a double repair of the past pessimism and low valuation. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3,000 points, and this repair is nearing completion.
The "Daily Economic News" reporter particularly noticed that Guizhou Moutai once reached a record high price of 798.33 yuan on the 4th of March (pre-recovery), once again refreshed the A-share record, and the value of Guizhou Moutai once exceeded 10,000 in intraday trading. 100 million yuan mark.
In fact, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has been the highest in the A-share market, and it is also the most profitable food company in the A-share market. The stock price of “A-share one brother†in Guizhou Maotai has risen sharply since last week, once again staged “The Return of the Kingâ€.
The research report issued by Gao Hua Securities Liao Xufa shows that it has reiterated the Buy rating on Guizhou Maotai and is on the strong buy list, and raised the 12-month target price from RMB 708 to RMB 842.
And Long Ding, chairman of Jinding Assets, told reporters: "With the development of the market after the Spring Festival, Kweichow Moutai has also entered a rapid rebound. It opened again on March 4 and has the idea of ​​breaking through the 800-yuan integer mark. We think that Guizhou Moutai is going down. After standing near 500 yuan, in the face of the expectation that the performance in 2019 exceeded 100 billion yuan, especially the overseas funds led by Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, gave the imaginary space for the late Maotai breakthrough in the thousand-yuan mark."
After the market improved, private equity increased significantly
At present, the Shanghai stock index has stood at 3,000 points, and how will the market outlook be interpreted?
Qianbo Asset Research Center pointed out that the main reason for the surge in the index was firstly the January credit data released on February 15, the new credit and the new social financing scale injected the market with “cardiotonic agentsâ€, and the monetary policy environment was conducive to the market rebound; Secondly, the market investment atmosphere is activated. Under the stimulation of the money-making effect, small and medium-sized investors have increased their positions. Third, multi-channel incremental funds including foreign investment, bank insurance funds and pensions have greatly boosted market confidence. . Since the beginning of the year, the continued large-scale purchase of foreign capital has been an important promoter of this market rebound. Fourth, with the release of many negatives coming to an end, people’s pessimism about the market outlook is gradually fading, “people’s minds are long-lastingâ€, bottom It has been proved that the reversal is going on. The rebound of the Shanghai Composite Index during the year is currently seen at 3587~3650 points.
Long Hao told the "Daily Economic News" reporter: "The Shanghai index has jumped high and opened the 3000-point integer mark. The source of power is not only related to the market's expectations for the two sessions, but also related to the good market performance of the weekend; We are getting closer and closer; the third is that MSCI will increase the proportion of A-shares from 5% to 20%, which will bring nearly one trillion yuan of funds to the market, stimulating more off-exchange funds to run into the market."
Long Hao also said: "With regard to the rebound space in the late stage of the broader market, we insist that the science and technology board detonation market is coming, so the latter market will be the spring of technology stocks. The first target of the Shanghai index after standing at 3000 points is at 3200~3300. point."
The recently announced Aizhi China hedge fund manager A-share confidence index was 121.37, up 1.90% from the previous month, which is the second consecutive month of this year. After the stock market surged in February, the private equity fund confidence index is currently in a relatively high historical area. Combined with the current position of private equity funds, private equity managers are generally optimistic about the market outlook. For the next March market, the proportion of neutral and optimistic attitudes is still relatively high. Specifically, 6.67% of fund managers are extremely optimistic, and 51.11% of fund managers are optimistic. There was a clear rise last month. Second, 40.00% of fund managers hold a neutral view.
From the perspective of private placements, the current average position of stock-strategic private equity funds is 71.99%, up nearly 11 percentage points from the previous month's 60.85%, compared with the lowest 52.61% in September last year. 20 percentage points, the overall average position quickly expanded to the highest level of the past year. This shows that after the market conditions improved, private equity funds made a large increase in positions.
The reporter saw from the specific position survey data that 27.82% of private placements are currently in full position, and 84.96% of private equity funds are in 50% or more. The proportion of private placements in high positions has risen sharply from last month and is basically at a historically high level. For the increase or decrease of positions in March, 20.3% of fund managers intend to increase positions, while up to 72.18% of fund managers choose to maintain the existing positions to cope with market changes, and the remaining fund managers may have less Plan to lighten up.
In the market outlook, what kind of varieties will be selected for the position of private placement?
Qianbo Asset Research Center believes that 2019 is the first year of 5G investment, and is optimistic about the 5G investment opportunities from upstream fiber optic cable, antenna RF, equipment supplier to downstream terminal equipment and application scenarios. Secondly, the pharmaceutical sector is suffering from industry. After the bearish slump, it will usher in a rare bottom in the first half of the year. The impact of the plasticizer incident on the liquor industry is the best time to deploy high-quality pharmaceutical stocks this year. The market continued to pick up, and the strong cycle segments such as brokerages and insurance companies had greater performance flexibility and were one of the best performing segments in the initial period of the index.
Long Hao told reporters: "Looking forward to the market outlook, we are planning around the six major industries of science and technology innovation enterprises, mining information technology, high-end equipment, new materials, new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection and biomedicine. We insist that 'Kechuang board The detonated market 'must be the spring of technology stocks.'
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