Macroeconomic restrained rebound persistence

After the sharp rise in the short-term market, we are cautious about the continuity of the rise. From the industry point of view, we believe that the sectors that are clearly supported by the consumer goods sector and policies have the potential to continue to gain relative returns. Therefore, we recommend the liquor, apparel, and railway equipment and operations sectors.

Recently, the prices of cement, steel, and coal all stopped falling and stabilized. However, the prices of cement and steel fell again last week, indicating that the trend of improvement is still very unstable. In the first half of August, the growth rate of power generation even saw a negative growth (-0.1%). This was due to the lower-than-season growth in the first quarter (-2.1%), on the other hand due to the very high base of the same period last year. high. Under the high base pressure, we expect that the year-on-year data for most of the important indicators will decline in the third quarter.

For the third quarter, the current attitude of investors is very different. According to our roadshow survey in the past two weeks, most investors believe that this means that the intensity of policy relaxation will further increase until a clear recovery or inflation constraint appears. Therefore, they are very optimistic about the market and look to the first half of next year. There will be inflationary pressure in half a year). While a small number of investors have become suspicious of the current policy effects and fear that some structural problems will lead to short-term policy relaxation and ineffective, they believe that short-term A shares are not too risky, because the market will understand the recent downside of data as normal. The "base reason". For these investors, the market began to enter the risk zone in the fourth quarter.

In summary, both optimistic and cautious investors have reached an agreement on the upward trend of the market in the third quarter.

We are skeptical of the effect of policy relaxation and believe that the key observation variable is the sales status of real estate. In July, the real estate sales growth rate fell again. If there is still no improvement in August, then confidence in the market will certainly be a new blow, because real estate investment generally lags behind sales after a quarter to six months before it will rise, but now if even the sales No recovery trend can be established, then the recovery of real estate investment will be even more distant.

In addition, according to a series of recent media reports, the risk of “triangular debt” that we have been suggesting since the second half of the year has shown signs of further expansion. If the short-term fund interest rate does not appear to be significantly down, then this risk may become the "black swan" in the next market.