Industry Development Report: Capacity and Inventory Slowdown Industrial Growth in the Second Half of the Year
2018-09-23 00:01:08
The Shanghai Securities News and the Industry Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council jointly launched the "China Industry Development Climate Report · Summer 2005". According to the report, due to the fall of the heavy industry boom index, the industrial growth prosperity index in the first half of the year has dropped significantly, while the capacity formed by the over-investment in the previous period is entering or about to enter the production period, and the inventory rate in some industries is too high. The industrial growth rate will further slow down, with industrial growth of around 14% for the whole year.
In the first six months of this year, the industrial growth prosperity index fell by 2.3 points, the light industrial growth index fell by 0.9 points, and the heavy industry growth index fell by 2.8 points. This high level of decline indicates that the overall growth rate of the industry continues to show a gradual slowdown. It is particularly noteworthy that the growth rate of heavy industry has fallen for three consecutive months, which indicates that the industrial growth rate will slow down further in the second half of the year, and the possibility of “high before and then low†in industrial growth will increase significantly. It is estimated that industrial growth will be 14% for the whole year, light industry will grow by 12.5%, and heavy industry growth will fall to around 14.5%.
According to the report, since the new production capacity has been put into production this year, the total assets of many industries have expanded rapidly. This means that the gap between production and demand in this batch of industries may shrink continuously, and the excessive growth of production capacity may also lead to overcapacity. Now, the decline in capacity utilization has already appeared in some industries. In the first half of this year, the industrial sectors of computers, communications equipment, medicine, cement, electricity, and glass declined significantly.
Another phenomenon is the high inventory in some industries. If the inventory is too high, the industry will face the fate of price cuts, and raw materials and products, especially finished products, may fall. Industries with rising stock rates are: gas production and supply, automobiles, tobacco, cement, and electronic components. In the tertiary industry, the inventory of ferroalloy smelting, shipbuilding, electronic components, cellulose fibers, synthetic materials, white goods, steel making and other industries increased rapidly.
According to the report analysis, industries with large reductions in inventory rates tend to have better room for development in the short term. Industries with a rapid decline in inventory rates include coal, nonferrous metals, beverages, metal products, rubber, glass, agricultural and sideline food processing, Chinese herbal medicines, proprietary Chinese medicines, and textiles. Among them, the inventory trend of the coal industry is more typical. In addition, the inventory of railway transportation equipment, radio and television equipment, metal structure manufacturing, agricultural machinery, pesticides, alcohol and beverages, containers, boilers and prime movers has also declined rapidly.
According to the report, China's industry is currently facing double pressures of rising costs and slowing demand, and profit growth will decline. In order to make full use of production capacity and improve the efficiency and quality of industrial growth, some preventive intervention measures should be adopted, that is, while appropriately loosening the control of loan scale, actively expand export and consumption demand.
In the first six months of this year, the industrial growth prosperity index fell by 2.3 points, the light industrial growth index fell by 0.9 points, and the heavy industry growth index fell by 2.8 points. This high level of decline indicates that the overall growth rate of the industry continues to show a gradual slowdown. It is particularly noteworthy that the growth rate of heavy industry has fallen for three consecutive months, which indicates that the industrial growth rate will slow down further in the second half of the year, and the possibility of “high before and then low†in industrial growth will increase significantly. It is estimated that industrial growth will be 14% for the whole year, light industry will grow by 12.5%, and heavy industry growth will fall to around 14.5%.
According to the report, since the new production capacity has been put into production this year, the total assets of many industries have expanded rapidly. This means that the gap between production and demand in this batch of industries may shrink continuously, and the excessive growth of production capacity may also lead to overcapacity. Now, the decline in capacity utilization has already appeared in some industries. In the first half of this year, the industrial sectors of computers, communications equipment, medicine, cement, electricity, and glass declined significantly.
Another phenomenon is the high inventory in some industries. If the inventory is too high, the industry will face the fate of price cuts, and raw materials and products, especially finished products, may fall. Industries with rising stock rates are: gas production and supply, automobiles, tobacco, cement, and electronic components. In the tertiary industry, the inventory of ferroalloy smelting, shipbuilding, electronic components, cellulose fibers, synthetic materials, white goods, steel making and other industries increased rapidly.
According to the report analysis, industries with large reductions in inventory rates tend to have better room for development in the short term. Industries with a rapid decline in inventory rates include coal, nonferrous metals, beverages, metal products, rubber, glass, agricultural and sideline food processing, Chinese herbal medicines, proprietary Chinese medicines, and textiles. Among them, the inventory trend of the coal industry is more typical. In addition, the inventory of railway transportation equipment, radio and television equipment, metal structure manufacturing, agricultural machinery, pesticides, alcohol and beverages, containers, boilers and prime movers has also declined rapidly.
According to the report, China's industry is currently facing double pressures of rising costs and slowing demand, and profit growth will decline. In order to make full use of production capacity and improve the efficiency and quality of industrial growth, some preventive intervention measures should be adopted, that is, while appropriately loosening the control of loan scale, actively expand export and consumption demand.
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