In 2015, the global installed capacity of new PV will reach 57.4 GW.

According to the latest report from MercomCapital, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach 57.4 GW in 2015. “Given the positive news in the Chinese market, we have raised the original expectations,” said Raj Prabhu, CEO and co-founder of MercomCapital.

China's installation target of 17.8 GW this year is expected to achieve Mercom's forecast. In 2015, China, Japan and the United States will account for nearly 60% of the total installed PV capacity in the world. Although the PV installed capacity in 2014 only achieved 76% of the target, according to the “2015 National Photovoltaic Power Generation Annual Plan Newly Added Grid Scale Table” (Draft for Comment) issued by the National Energy Administration at the beginning of this year, this year’s photovoltaic power generation plan is expected to be new. The increase is 15GW, of which 8GW is centralized photovoltaic power plant and 7GW is distributed photovoltaic. The Exposure Draft also states that the roof distribution has a minimum size of 3.15 GW.
"According to the data of the China Energy Bureau, in the first quarter, China's new PV installed capacity is about 5GW, and the target of 17.8GW is not out of reach, and it is expected to be realized," Prabhu further commented.

China's PV installation target was revised several times last year. If there is a problem with the implementation of the ground power station, a similar trend is likely to occur this year. Japan's new scale may reach 10 GW; Germany is still showing a downward trend. The report predicts that in 2015, Japan will install approximately 10 GW of new PV installed capacity. In March of this year, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced the reduction of the subsidy rate for photovoltaic feed-in tariffs. In addition, the German PV market will continue to decline. In the first four months of 2015, Germany's new PV installed capacity was only 400MW, down from 622MW in the same period last year. Based on this, Mercom lowered Germany's new capacity this year to 1300MW.

In April of this year, the scale of the first auction for ground installation projects in Germany was 150MW, limiting the maximum installed capacity of each project to 10MW, but the bidding was oversubscribed by more than four times. Based on the auction rules, the lowest bidder wins. The auction was originally intended as a cheaper alternative to the FIT mechanism. The second auction will be held in August. If this trend continues, Germany's new installed forecast data this year is expected to be raised.

This year and next year is expected to become the best two years in the United States. It is expected that the joint investment tax credit (ITC) will expire in 2016 and many projects are competing for completion. Up to 8.8GW. In addition, this year and next year is likely to become the most "out of the world" in the US PV market for two years. The United States has been trying to cut financing costs by adopting innovative structures such as securitization and Yieldcos, and has become a leader. In the first half of this year, third-party solar finance companies have raised nearly $3 billion in leasing and loans, which is expected to make this year the best year for solar leasing companies to raise funds. As the ITC deadline approaches, the report expects such events to be even stronger in 2016.

In addition, the report claims that with the expiration of the Renewable Energy Obligation Certificate (ROC) for projects with installed capacity greater than 5MW in April 2015, 2015 is expected to be the best year in the history of the UK solar market. In the future, the focus of the country's PV market is expected to move to smaller projects with incentives.

In addition, Mercom revised its forecast for Indian solar market demand to 2.2 GW.

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