Energy-saving and emission reduction to lower coal demand, Shanxi's supply adjustment "strength" coal price
2022-11-16 06:06:00
Since September, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hebei and other places have introduced strict power-restriction policies. As capacity is reduced, on the one hand, the price of coal downstream industries such as cement and steel is raised, on the other hand, the demand for coal is lowered, which makes coal The industry entered the “quantity price game†period.
The reporter noted that at the time of the sharp rise in cement and steel prices, the prices of different coal types have risen and fallen.
According to statistics, the closing price of Qinhuangdao Shanxi high-mix coal on September 13 decreased by 0.7% to 715 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. The price of the coal pit in the southern suburb of Datong remained unchanged on a week-on-week basis. The price of thermal coal remained unchanged in most parts of the country; the prices of thermal coal in some areas of Xinjiang and Qinghai Province increased.
At the same time, the price of coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of injected coal rose sharply. The price of coal injected in Shanxi and Hebei increased by about 5% on a week-on-week basis, and the price of coke in Yunnan and Linyi rose by 2% to 3% on a week-on-week basis.
It is worth mentioning that the inventory of Qinhuangdao Port continued to climb. The inventory as of September 13 was 7.68 million tons, up 7.0% on a week-on-week basis. As of September 9, Guangzhou Port coal stocks increased by 215,200 tons to 2,749,800 tons. The chain rose by 8.49%, and the high inventory of each port formed obvious pressure on future coal prices, especially coal prices.
Moreover, the reporter learned that the coal consumption of the central direct power supply plant has decreased recently. The average coal consumption (old caliber) from August 29 to September 5 was 15.7 million tons, compared to August 22 to August 29. The weekly coal consumption of the day dropped by 150,000 tons, a decrease of 0.95%, which also put pressure on coal prices, especially coal prices.
Moreover, industry experts predict that under the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction during the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the shutdown of some high-energy-consuming enterprises will continue until the end of September, and even at the end of this year, this will affect coal demand in the next few months.
According to the analysis, considering the impact of thermal coal on the end of the peak season, the approaching of holidays, high inventory, energy saving and emission reduction, and sufficient hydropower generation, prices still have room to fall; while coking coal stocks are low, and market concentration is high, and downstream steel mill prices continue. Rising, it is expected that the price will fall, but the space is not large.
"Restriction of production and demand recovery may bring a new round of steel prices, which will support the price of coking coal." An analysis report of Changjiang Securities pointed out.
In addition, while the power cut policy has lowered the demand for coal, the coal supply province seems to be interested in adjusting the rhythm of coal supply, which has formed support for coal prices.
It is reported that on the 8th of last week, the Shanxi Provincial Government approved the “Notice on Strengthening the Merger and Reorganization and Integration of Mine Safety Work of the Leading Group Office of Coal Mine Enterprises Mergers, Reorganizations and Reorganizations in Shanxi Provinceâ€, requesting that the closure and inclusion of the closure list are being implemented and not approved. The 547 mines produced during the transition period ensure that production conditions are no longer available before September 15. In addition, “close look†is made to the 374 mines that have been closed to ensure that all are “closedâ€.
“At the time of the nationwide large-scale production cut-off and power-saving protection, the Shanxi Province chose to shut down 547 coal mines at this time and look back at the 374 mines that have been closed, which has obvious support for coal prices. "Guangfa Securities analyst said.
In this regard, BOC International analysts believe that the integrated coal mine in part of the transition period in Shanxi will be completely shut down at the end of this year, which will partially reduce the supply in 2011, so it is not worried about the recent adjustment of coal prices. On the contrary, it is expected to be policy-oriented in 2011. After the end of production, coal demand will rebound, optimistic about the overall coal price in 2011."
The reporter noted that at the time of the sharp rise in cement and steel prices, the prices of different coal types have risen and fallen.
According to statistics, the closing price of Qinhuangdao Shanxi high-mix coal on September 13 decreased by 0.7% to 715 yuan/ton on a week-on-week basis. The price of the coal pit in the southern suburb of Datong remained unchanged on a week-on-week basis. The price of thermal coal remained unchanged in most parts of the country; the prices of thermal coal in some areas of Xinjiang and Qinghai Province increased.
At the same time, the price of coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of injected coal rose sharply. The price of coal injected in Shanxi and Hebei increased by about 5% on a week-on-week basis, and the price of coke in Yunnan and Linyi rose by 2% to 3% on a week-on-week basis.
It is worth mentioning that the inventory of Qinhuangdao Port continued to climb. The inventory as of September 13 was 7.68 million tons, up 7.0% on a week-on-week basis. As of September 9, Guangzhou Port coal stocks increased by 215,200 tons to 2,749,800 tons. The chain rose by 8.49%, and the high inventory of each port formed obvious pressure on future coal prices, especially coal prices.
Moreover, the reporter learned that the coal consumption of the central direct power supply plant has decreased recently. The average coal consumption (old caliber) from August 29 to September 5 was 15.7 million tons, compared to August 22 to August 29. The weekly coal consumption of the day dropped by 150,000 tons, a decrease of 0.95%, which also put pressure on coal prices, especially coal prices.
Moreover, industry experts predict that under the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction during the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the shutdown of some high-energy-consuming enterprises will continue until the end of September, and even at the end of this year, this will affect coal demand in the next few months.
According to the analysis, considering the impact of thermal coal on the end of the peak season, the approaching of holidays, high inventory, energy saving and emission reduction, and sufficient hydropower generation, prices still have room to fall; while coking coal stocks are low, and market concentration is high, and downstream steel mill prices continue. Rising, it is expected that the price will fall, but the space is not large.
"Restriction of production and demand recovery may bring a new round of steel prices, which will support the price of coking coal." An analysis report of Changjiang Securities pointed out.
In addition, while the power cut policy has lowered the demand for coal, the coal supply province seems to be interested in adjusting the rhythm of coal supply, which has formed support for coal prices.
It is reported that on the 8th of last week, the Shanxi Provincial Government approved the “Notice on Strengthening the Merger and Reorganization and Integration of Mine Safety Work of the Leading Group Office of Coal Mine Enterprises Mergers, Reorganizations and Reorganizations in Shanxi Provinceâ€, requesting that the closure and inclusion of the closure list are being implemented and not approved. The 547 mines produced during the transition period ensure that production conditions are no longer available before September 15. In addition, “close look†is made to the 374 mines that have been closed to ensure that all are “closedâ€.
“At the time of the nationwide large-scale production cut-off and power-saving protection, the Shanxi Province chose to shut down 547 coal mines at this time and look back at the 374 mines that have been closed, which has obvious support for coal prices. "Guangfa Securities analyst said.
In this regard, BOC International analysts believe that the integrated coal mine in part of the transition period in Shanxi will be completely shut down at the end of this year, which will partially reduce the supply in 2011, so it is not worried about the recent adjustment of coal prices. On the contrary, it is expected to be policy-oriented in 2011. After the end of production, coal demand will rebound, optimistic about the overall coal price in 2011."
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