Barclays said China's "12th Five-Year" GDP potential growth rate of 8-9%
2024-09-17 13:01:06
British investment bank Barclays Capital released a report on Monday saying that the Chinese government has set the “12th Five-Year Plan†economic growth target at 7%, reflecting that the potential growth rate will slow down to 8-9% during this period, and the government will pay more attention to the quality of growth and Continue to develop. The report also predicts that in view of the risk of the US dollar and the risk of rising inflation, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will exceed 5% per year. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said in an online interview on Sunday that in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", China's economic development rate is 7%, and the focus should be on improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth. At the same time, the appreciation of the renminbi will continue to take the initiative. Sexuality, graduality and controllability. “We believe that the lower GDP growth target reflects the government’s low expectations for potential growth due to uncertain domestic and international conditions,†the report said. “It also shows that the Chinese government will pay more attention to high quality and Continued economic growth.†Barclays also said that lower economic growth will help provide room for structural reforms, shifting China’s economic growth, which is currently largely dependent on investment, to more consumption-dependent growth. For the estimates for the “Twelfth Five-Year†years, Barclays said it maintains a forecast of 9-9.5% for 2011-12 and 8.5-9% for 2013-15. China’s original “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†economic growth rate was 7.5%, but the actual growth rate was as high as 11.2%. Last year, the economy exceeded expectations by 10.3%, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter alone was 9.8%. On June 19, 2010, the People's Bank of China announced the resumption of the exchange rate reform, enhanced the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, and continued to dynamically manage and adjust the RMB exchange rate fluctuations in accordance with the published exchange rate fluctuation range of the foreign exchange market. After the exchange rate reform, the RMB appreciated more than 3%. .
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