Policy helps to see how the hardware industry has changed dramatically

2011 faced with multiple difficulties, electricity shortages, money shortages, the central bank raised interest rates again, closed down the tide, in the face of the big environment, the domestic hardware industry transformation "step by step startling". According to Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the International Model Association, China's "hard landing" risk is small because high-end consumption is still strong, and the construction of affordable housing and the massive infrastructure investment in the opening year of the "12th Five-Year Plan" drive investment growth. As the price of pork, which has a higher weight on CPI, has fallen and the peak of inflation has taken off, the Chinese government hinted that it would be possible to relax the tightening policy appropriately and that the risk of the European debt crisis has dropped significantly and continue to boost the market.

First, the weak US dollar to increase China's external economic trends in Europe and the United States, the debt crisis, the tightness of monetary policy is the focus of the overseas economy in the second half, but also related to China's export situation, the trend of *** and the key to China's imported inflation. Comparative analysis of key European and US indicators, due to worrying US economic data, the United States debt situation is far worse than Europe, Europe and the United States spreads continue to exist, the fourth quarter is expected to remain weak. As the world’s most important reserve currency, the US dollar’s ​​continued super-deposition and devaluation will be China’s major external dilemma.

1. Comparison 1: US economic recovery is weaker than expected Since the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of the US economy has shown a downward trend. Real GDP growth rate has increased by 1.9% year-on-year, weaker than the 4.1% growth rate in the fourth quarter. Private consumption, employment, and real estate data are frustrating. The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States in May increased by only 54,000, the lowest level in recent years; the unemployment rate rose from 9% to 9.1%. Due to the high unemployment rate and the high foreclosure rate, the US real estate recovery is still weak, and it is still continuing the weak situation of “price drop”. The recovery of the core countries in the euro zone is stable, especially Germany will continue to play the role of “lotou” in the economic growth of the euro zone. As exports remain strong, domestic spending and employment in Germany are more optimistic. The IMF earlier forecast that Germany's GDP will reach 3.2% this year.

2. Comparison 2: The US debt situation is far worse than Europe's budget cuts and debt reduction is the top priority of the United States. At present, the proportion of US Treasury bonds in GDP has approached 100%, which is higher than the 80% share of the Eurozone. The US fiscal deficit accounts for more than 10% of GDP and is also much higher than the 6% of the euro zone. At the same time, the U.S. state governments and many municipalities also face varying degrees of financial crisis. However, it is difficult for the White House and the Republican Party to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling. If the US government reduces expenditures accordingly, it will have a negative impact on the economic recovery in the United States. In Europe, due to the failure of the eurozone countries to form fiscal alliances, over the long term, the issue of fiscal incompatibility will always hamper the settlement of the debt problem in southern Europe. However, the Greek debt crisis can be delayed by one to two years through the “new debt to offset old debt”. In the short term, Greece is unlikely to restructure and withdraw from the euro area, and the European problem will not break out.

3. Comparison 3: Euro-American spreads persist In the euro area, the inflation rate in May was 2.7%. Although it was lower than 2.8% in April, it was still much higher than the European Central Bank’s 2% target. After the "Inflation Warrior" Italian Central Bank President Draghi succeeded to the European Central Bank, the European Central Bank will take a step forward in its anti-inflation stance, and the possibility of raising interest rates still exists. In the U.S., although the U.S. inflation rate reached 3.6% in May, its core inflation rate is only 1.5%. Although the second round of quantitative easing (QE2) will be withdrawn at the end of June, poor economic data still does not rule out the possibility of QE3 launch, and it is expected that the United States will raise interest rates until 2012.

The weaker dollar may increase the pressure of rising commodity prices in the second half of the year. At the same time, overseas economic trends are not yet clear, and the debt issue continues to trigger market panic, which also increases the difficulty of China’s exports. At the same time, the rising costs of labor and raw materials in China, the cancellation of tax rebates for some commodities, and the continued appreciation of ***, have also correspondingly increased the pressure on Chinese exporters. We will reduce the growth rate of exports to 15% this year, and the import growth rate will be 20%. The net export contribution to GDP will remain negative for the whole year. And because exports are worse than imports, the trade surplus may drop to 140 billion, and before the end of the year, the dollar will rise to 6.3 against the US dollar.

Second, the economic slowdown can not avoid the first half of this year, China's economy has shown signs of slowing down, the economic leading index PMI data continued to decline, consumer data continued to slow down, there are some areas due to power difficulties, business production has been affected. The more obvious signs of economic slowdown, the “overshoot” of policies, and the more worried about the possible “hard landing” of the Chinese economy. As the slowdown in economic growth is the inevitable result of the government's macro-control measures to curb inflationary trends, adjust the economic structure, and change the mode of growth, in this sense, a moderate slowdown is an unavoidable process. Although the current monetary policy is tight, the fiscal policy has remained active except for the cancellation of car concessions. “Broad Fiscal” can support economic growth from falling sharply.

In fact, the current Chinese economy has not shown any obvious signs of cooling. According to Luo Baihui, a specially invited researcher of the China International Economic Development and Research Center, and the Secretary-General of the International Model Association, China’s high-end consumption is still strong, barrier investment and the “12th Five-Year Plan”. The large amount of infrastructure construction in the beginning of the year will also not lead to a substantial drop in investment. For the electric power shortage phenomenon that is more concerned about in the market, it is mainly due to the traditional repair time of the power plant in April-May and September-October every year. It coincides with the completion of energy-saving and emission reduction tasks for some factories last year. Resumption of work has caused an increase in electricity demand.

3. Inflationary peak pressure has not diminished. There was a view in the market that there was a view that this round of inflation would peak in the first half of the year, and it was further believed that the 5.4% inflation level in March would be the peak of this round of inflation. However, the data shows that the current inflation has not gone down, but has repeatedly hit new highs and is still in the upward range. In response to this round of inflation, the central bank has frequently resorted to strokes. Why is inflation continuing to rise? Luo Baihui, a research fellow at the China International Economic Development Research Center and a member of the International Association for Model Studies, believes that due to the complexity of the causes of this round of inflation, both domestic and international factors, both institutional and trending factors. This round of inflation has long-term characteristics and it is difficult to resist inflation. As the ultra-currency of money has not been overnight, the loose liquidity caused by the supply of long-dollar coins will exert pressure on inflation and will not be alleviated soon. In addition, the overcapacity phenomenon has been changing along with the substantial increase in demand and the elimination of outdated production capacity. In particular, after the "Lewis Turning Point" appeared, the rise in labor wages no longer supports the traditional state of oversupply, and rising wages will have long-term and lasting impetus for prices. At the same time, the reform of resource prices is imminent, especially since the “electricity shortage” after the emergence of electricity price increases, as a long-term institutional factor will also affect inflation.

Fourth, the export increase greatly reduced the expansion of the import policy introduced by the further deterioration of the debt crisis in Europe, the United States economic unemployment rate remains high, consumer demand is weak and the domestic economy slowed down and other factors, the growth rate of Guangdong's major port production slowed down.

According to data released by the Statistics Bureau of Guangdong Province, in the first three quarters, the major ports of Guangdong province completed 95.453 million tons of cargo throughput, an increase of 10.1%, and the growth rate decreased by 8.1 percentage points year-on-year; the container throughput of major ports was 34.118 million TEUs, an increase of 5.9%. The growth rate dropped by 15.0 percentage points year-on-year.

Although customs statistics show that the amount of Guangdong's exports is still growing, but after deducting price factors, the increase in exports has dropped significantly. According to the survey conducted by the International Model Association Secretary-General Luo Baihui on the operating conditions of member companies, foreign-invested SMEs still faced a shrinking market and reduced orders. The impact of *** appreciation and a substantial increase in the overall cost of the company resulted in a drop in the profit margin. At the same time, from the analysis of changes in the container throughput at the four major ports in Shenzhen, the foreign trade import and export have continued to shrink.

In September, the container throughputs of the four major ports in Shenzhen Yantian Port, Chiwan Port, Shekou Port, and Dachan Bay were all lower than the average of the previous nine months, with negative growth.

According to the statistics released by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products at the Canton Fair, at the 110th Canton Fair, the turnover of mechanical and electrical products to the United States dropped by as much as 33.1% over the previous session, and it also dropped 21.3% over the European market.

With the eruption of the European debt crisis, the world economy has been affected, and the Pearl River Delta, which has a large number of foreign-invested export companies, has been the fastest affected. According to the data released recently by the Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, the foreign trade import and export of Guangdong Province in September totaled US$80.03 billion, an increase of 8.3%, which was 4.4 percentage points lower than that of August, and lower than the national increase of more than ten percentage points. It is expected that the impact in the fourth quarter will be relatively large. By the first and second quarter of next year, the situation will be very severe.

Since the beginning of this year, under the guidance of policy support for expanding imports, the trade surplus has continued to narrow. According to customs data, from January to September of this year, China’s trade surplus reached 107.1 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%. In September, the trade surplus was 14.51 billion U.S. dollars, narrowing 12.4%.

** The Politburo Standing Committee and Premier Wen Jiabao emphasized on October 13th that when investigating foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong, they stressed that they must actively expand imports, pay close attention to formulating guidance on strengthening import and promoting trade balance, and improving import discount interest, import credit, import tariffs, etc. Policies and measures will create more favorable conditions for enterprises to expand imports.

Prior to September 29, the Ministry of Commerce held the 2011 China Import Forum in Shanghai and proposed that further measures should be taken to increase imports, improve trade facilitation, and promote international trade balance. However, support policies such as how to increase imports and how to lower taxes are also expected to be introduced in the near future.

Although the promotion policy at the national level has not yet been formally introduced, local governments have begun to take positive actions. As the largest foreign trade province, Guangdong recently took the lead in promulgating Several Opinions on the Promotion of Importation. While stabilizing exports, it actively expanded the scale of imports to ensure that the province’s imports increased by more than 8.5% of its original target in 2011, and strived to achieve two goals. The number of digits increases.

Statistics show that in the first three quarters of this year, Guangdong's exports accounted for $391.91 billion, an increase of 22.2%, accounting for 28.1% of the country's total exports; imports were $282.4 billion, an increase of 18.3%, accounting for 22% of the country's total imports. In the first three quarters of the year, Guangdong's trade surplus was 109.51 billion U.S. dollars. With the national surplus decreasing, Guangdong still increased by 33.5% over the same period last year's $82 billion.

Therefore, how Guangdong can expand imports and maintain trade balance is very important for the country. On October 25th, Guangdong Province held a conference to promote imports in Guangzhou and proposed to expand imports as a breakthrough point, strive to expand the scale of imports, optimize the import structure, comprehensively improve the overall efficiency of imports, and fully utilize imports to promote industrial transformation and upgrading. The important role of macroeconomic balance.

The "Opinions" proposes to import advanced technologies, key equipment, and scarce resource products that are urgently needed for strategic emerging industries, technological transformation of traditional industries, energy conservation, emission reduction, low-carbon economy, high-tech, and high-value-added industries; focus on energy and raw materials Bottleneck constraints, stabilizing and guiding the import of bulk commodities; expanding service imports and consolidating the import of processing trade methods.

"The continuous appreciation of *** is actually a good opportunity to expand imports. By expanding imports of raw materials and other products, this will also help reduce the production costs of domestic production companies and improve product quality," said Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the International Model Association.

In terms of policy support, Guangdong set up a special fund for import promotion. From 2012 to 2014, the provincial government will allocate 250 million yuan each year to subsidize advanced technologies, products, and equipment that have been included in national and provincial catalogues of imported technology and products. Import ** gives discounts; it supports import bases, import distribution systems, import insurance credit insurance, import promotion, and public services.

With regard to tax incentives, the Opinions stated that it will actively seek to reduce the provisional tariffs on imports of some energy, raw materials, and consumer goods.

Fifth, the national housing market turning point inflection point of the initial price trend is an important part of the relationship between people's livelihood, into the late October, the country's property market drastic changes in color, after the recession of gold nine silver ten, the first is unbearable is Shanghai. After developers such as Longhu, China Shipping, and Star River Bay suddenly cut their prices by 20% to 40% in Shanghai, the price cuts and Hangzhou, Ningbo in the Yangtze River Delta, followed by Vanke, Long Lake, and other real estate companies in the country began to drastically reduce prices.

Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen prices have stopped or brought decoration hardware opportunities. The price will affect the enthusiasm of buying a house, and the purchase will drive the decorating hardware. The recently introduced policy has provided facilities for those white-collar workers who are still stationed or who wish to come to work in big cities such as "Beihangguang". First, Beijing allowed non-local people who met the conditions to apply for public rental housing. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development immediately stated that it would liberalize the policy of extracting *** for renting. As potential real estate demand is strong, and real estate is an important pillar of the Chinese economy, it is expected that national housing prices will Keep the downside for some time in the future. According to Luo Baihui, a specially invited researcher of the China International Economic Development Research Center and the secretary general of the International Model Association, the rate of house price decline will be between 10% and 15%. The earlier the price inflection point appears, the sooner the sales will rise, and the government will be stricter. Regulations, such as restrictions on purchase policies, will be reduced as soon as possible. Therefore, the emergence of house price inflection points as soon as possible is not a bad thing, but it is conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market and the Chinese economy. At the same time, 10 million sets of affordable housing supply will also drive the development of related industries, so do not have to worry too much about the regulatory policies will have a greater impact on iron and steel, building materials, engineering construction, hardware and electronic machinery, mold machinery and other upstream and downstream industries and the economy.

6. Accelerate the implementation of real estate taxation Currently, there are more small and medium-sized service enterprises that have outsourcing business. In addition to increasing corporate value-added tax, enterprises will also bear the business tax tax burden brought about by outsourcing. Business tax cannot be deducted, and heavy tax burden is not conducive to the development and export of service enterprises. Therefore, the operational difficulties of SMEs come not only from the implementation of tightening monetary policy, but also the need for financial support. Considering that business tax is the main source of local fiscal revenue, the reform involves the relationship between local finance and central finance, and progress may be slow. If local finances want to obtain more income, they will inevitably introduce real estate taxes as the main taxes for local finances.

Recently, Wang Baoan, assistant to the Minister of Finance of the People's Republic of China, pointed out at the meeting that China will accelerate the implementation of the real estate tax so that it will further exert its regulatory role in the real estate market. It is expected that by the end of this year, the housing information systems of 40 key cities in the country will be initially connected, and administrative purchase restrictions will be abolished, and the implementation of real estate tax will be accelerated.

In countries and regions of the world, the purpose of real estate tax collection is generally to provide daily public services for the community, including school district education, public health, and community law and order. The larger the housing area, the more human and material resources are consumed. So people who own too many properties should pay more public service fees by paying real estate taxes.

The introduction of real estate tax, the short-term adverse impact on the hardware and building materials home industry closely linked to the real estate is inevitable, will reduce people's purchase of hardware furniture decoration to a certain extent, hardware company sales will have a certain degree of Declined, even encountered survival difficulties. Luo Baihui analyzed that in the long run, the introduction of real estate tax will promote the healthy and steady development of the hardware industry. On the one hand, real estate tax can curb speculation on housing and protect rigid demand; on the other hand, the property tax introduced can be used to strengthen the construction of affordable housing, so that more people can afford affordable housing, and people need hardware furniture. Will be more robust.