Electricity demand rebounds for two consecutive months

On December 14, the National Energy Administration released the electricity consumption for the entire society in November. In November, the entire society used 413.9 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 7.6% year-on-year.

As China's economic growth stabilized, the year-on-year YoY growth rate of power consumption, which was once continuously declining, began to rebound from October. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society has continued to decline along with the economic growth rate. The rate of decline began to slow in June and fell to a low of 2.9% in September. From the beginning of October, after a two-month rebound, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society has risen to 7.6%.

From January to November, the country’s entire society used 4502.8 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year. According to the classification, the primary industry's electricity consumption was 94 billion kwh, a decrease of 0.6%; the secondary industry's electricity consumption was 3319.1 billion kwh, an increase of 3.5%; the tertiary industry's electricity consumption was 518.3 billion kwh, an increase of 11.2%; urban and rural residents Life electricity consumption was 571.4 billion kwh, an increase of 10.6%.

The stabilization of the economy and the increase in electricity demand are undoubtedly significant benefits for thermal power companies. After a rapid decline in the first half of this year, coal prices have been operating at a low level since the third quarter. As a result, power generation has become an important factor constraining the performance of thermal power companies. The downturn in the coal market this year is not only related to the overall decline in electricity consumption, but also the continued increase in hydropower this year.

Data show that from January to November, the cumulative average utilization of power generation equipment in the country was 4,174 hours, a decrease of 160 hours year-on-year. Among them, the average utilization hours of hydropower equipment was 3,351 hours, an increase of 497 hours; the average utilization hours of thermal power equipment was 4,507 hours, a decrease of 301 hours.

Although domestic electricity consumption has rebounded for two consecutive months, thermal power generation and coal consumption have improved, and the level of coal inventory of major power companies has declined. However, the domestic coal demand situation in the coastal areas is still difficult to be optimistic. The sluggish demand has led to a decrease in the supply and demand of coal in the Bohai Rim region, and the market's thermal coal prices have been unable to withstand heavy pressure and have seen a downward trend.

The low demand for coal is mainly reflected in the continued low number of ships waiting to be loaded into the anchor shipping ports of Qinhuangdao and Caofeidian, among which the Qinhuangdao port anchorage ships fell below the level of 60 ships, reaching the minimum at 49 ships, refreshing this year. The minimum level is even lower than the number of ships whose prices have fallen sharply in June and July this year.

The latest issue of the Bohai Steam Coal Price Index closed at RMB 638/tonne on December 12, down by RMB 2/ton from the previous period. From the beginning of November to the six weeks of the current period, the comprehensive average price of steam coal in the 5500 kcal market in the Bohai Rim has dropped by 5 yuan/ton from the recent highs at the end of October.