Domestic PV companies look carefully at the substitution effect of nuclear power

The second day of the "full moon" after the earthquake in Japan, the bad news continued: the Japan Nuclear Safety and Security Agency (NISA) announced that the severity of the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was upgraded from the previous fifth level to the seventh level, and was cut in 1986. The same level of the nuclear disaster in Ernobyl. However, on March 14th, the first trading day after the earthquake, the stock price of China's PV companies listed in the US rose against the trend. This time, the capital market reaction was flat, and most PV companies followed the broader market. The nuclear power plant leakage incident after the strong earthquake in Japan poured a cold water on the newly recovered nuclear power industry in the world. Germany, France and China have all announced that they will be more cautious about their nuclear power development. Germany, the most responsive, was once rumored to be able to completely abandon the nuclear in the future. Due to the rise of developing countries, global energy demand continues to rise. If the future development of nuclear power slows down, the huge gap left by it will be filled by other energy sources. In the context of increasing global emission reduction pressures, there are many views that renewable energy, including photovoltaics, will usher in an opportunity for development after the earthquake. However, one month after the strong earthquake in Japan, the Morning Post reporter found that many PV companies are cautious and believe that the short-term direct impact of Japanese nuclear power accidents is limited, and the overall impact is biased towards the long-term. The relevant person in charge of a domestic mainstream polysilicon company told the Morning Post reporter that "the impact of the Japanese nuclear accident on the entire photovoltaic industry is not too great. Although nuclear power has been hit, it does not mean that most countries will abandon nuclear power in the future." Wu Dacheng, secretary general of the Photovoltaic Committee of the Renewable Energy Society, also said that photovoltaic power generation has a small advantage in terms of safety and environmental protection, but only after solving the low-cost Internet access on the user side or even the high voltage side, the domestic PV market will usher in Real explosive development. Wu reached the forecast that the domestic PV application market may achieve a cheaper Internet access on the user side and the high voltage side in 2015 and around 2020 respectively. This rational view has also been recognized by the industry. Yan Xiaoying, CEO of Artes, which ranks in the top ten global PV module production, told the Morning Post reporter that “the most important thing for people who do business is to lose their illusions, to do things seriously, and always think that falling pies in the sky will not work. I think it is to follow the conventional, or relatively conservative idea. In the long run, I think photovoltaic power generation will become more and more popular in five to ten years, and will gradually move toward thousands of households." Japan's photovoltaic market " Self-circulation. Due to the impact of the earthquake in Japan and subsequent nuclear accidents, Artes' Japanese expansion strategy may face certain variables. "The current impact of the earthquake on the Japanese PV application market is very large. Basically all business activities have stopped. We do not require our Japanese employees to continue their business activities. Protecting themselves is the first and transportation is not convenient. After the aftershocks from day to night, then the nuclear radiation material has to come out again, and should not let everyone do things, that is, protect yourself and think about the future. Think about what you might want to do in the second, third and fourth quarters." Say. According to Miao Xiaoyu, Artes Japan has more than 20 employees in Tokyo. Last year, the total sales of PV modules in Japan accounted for 2% to 3% of Artes. "Before the earthquake, I expected the Japanese market to have a relatively large growth, which will account for 6% to 7% of our total. It is a high-growth market." Xiao Xiaoyu said, "Reevaluate after the earthquake. Talk about this year, Too late. But Japan will definitely enter reconstruction. It can be seen from the reconstruction that solar energy, including the composition of renewable energy, will increase.” In fact, Japan is the world's largest PV installation before Germany strongly encourages PV development. Application market. By the end of 2006, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in Japan reached 1760 MW (megawatts), of which the installed capacity of household photovoltaic systems reached 360,000, and the cumulative installed capacity reached 1,254 MW, ranking first in the world at that time and becoming the leader in the photovoltaic industry. Japan's solar manufacturer Sharp's solar cell capacity has also been ranked first in the world from 2000 to 2006. However, since 2006, the government has cancelled the subsidy policy, and the development momentum of the Japanese photovoltaic industry has been curbed. The number one position in the world has gradually been replaced by Germany. Since then, in order to support the use of renewable energy and carbon dioxide emission reduction, in 2010 the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan intends to implement a full acquisition system for its domestic renewable energy power generation. The entire acquisition system is not only intended to gradually expand the acquisition target, but also expands from solar power generation to electricity generated by other renewable energy sources, and will also benefit enterprises. The entire acquisition system for solar power generation is planned to be implemented from 2011. Affected by this, last year, the Japanese PV application market was blown out again. However, as Xiao Xiaoyu said, the proportion of “2% to 3%” is blocked by the earthquake in Japan, which has little impact on most Chinese manufacturers, because the Japanese market is basically controlled by Japanese PV companies. “In recent years, many Japanese manufacturers have turned the local market into a key market, and for most manufacturers outside Japan, they rarely enter the Japanese market.” Xiao Xiaoyu said, “The only way to enter the Japanese market is to have another One or two non-Japanese manufacturers. Therefore, the Japanese market has a somewhat self-circulating taste, and it seems that you can grasp the balance by grasping it yourself.” In the upstream manufacturing industry, most Japanese PV companies are limited. Major PV producers in Japan include Sharp, Sanyo, Kyocera, etc. Most of their production bases are in western Japan. At present, only some factories cannot be produced normally due to power, water supply and aftershock problems. The relevant person in charge of the above polysilicon enterprises said, “In fact, Japanese manufacturing is not particularly large in the global photovoltaic field. And the earthquake is regional, not affecting the whole of Japan.” However, the earthquake in Japan was against AU Optronics, a Taiwanese photovoltaic company. Has caused a certain impact. AUO is the world's third largest manufacturer of thin film liquid crystal panels (TFT-LCDs) with a turnover of US$16.3 billion in 2010 and a global market share of 20.9%. In recent years, AU Optronics has made great strides in the photovoltaic field, including the acquisition of more than 50% of the Japanese polysilicon plant M. Setek since 2009. M.Setek's factory is located in Sendai and Soma, just in the middle of the disaster. It is still unknown when M.Setek can resume work due to water cuts and power outages. Although the polysilicon produced by the M.Setek plant does not have a cost advantage, the quality has reached the electronic level. Chen Jianbin, general manager of AU Optronics Solar Group, said in an interview with the Morning Post in February that the Japanese factory plays a role of technological innovation. AUO's SunForte PM318B00 PV module is said to have a conversion efficiency of 19.5%, the highest in the world. The European market is “good and limited”. Compared with the direct influence, what is more worthy of attention is the indirect “substitution effect”. On March 14, two days after the Japanese nuclear power crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a three-month assessment of the safety and broader energy strategy of German nuclear power plants. In the meantime, the seven nuclear reactors built by the country before 1980 will be closed. In France, the heavy reliance on nuclear energy for decades has been questioned for the first time. France’s largest party, the Socialist Party, also gave up its position of supporting nuclear energy for decades. As the world's largest PV application market, Europe's response to nuclear power is fast, but this reaction will be transmitted to the electricity market, which will bring benefits to PV companies. I am afraid it is a very long process. “I don’t expect a sharp change in the share of nuclear power in Europe, because it’s not a one-time process to replace nuclear power with other sources,” said Paula Abreu Marques, Minister of International Relations and Development of the European Commission’s Energy Directorate. Another problem is that the alternative to nuclear power alternatives is not limited to photovoltaics. In fact, Merkel will discuss the future energy structure with the 16 governors of Germany on April 15. Germany's plans include expanding offshore wind farms and building more natural gas power plants to fill the gaps that may arise in the future of nuclear power. The current data show that the plan does not mention photovoltaics. It is worth noting that although Italy announced a one-year suspension of nuclear power construction. However, on April 1, the Italian government introduced a new PV subsidy policy. From the same day to the end of 2012, the PV subsidy will be reduced by 15% to 20%; in 2013-2015, the PV subsidy will be further reduced by 30% to 35%. . This is quite huge. It is reported that the Italian government's reason for reducing PV subsidies is to curb the overheating of the country's PV market. The relevant person in charge of the above-mentioned polysilicon enterprises told the Morning Post reporter: "You see Germany and Italy, their PV reduction policy implementation coherence is still relatively strong, and there is no drastic change due to changes in nuclear power policies of these countries. Wind power and photovoltaics if large-scale use There is a problem of how to store energy to reduce the impact on the grid.” Xiao Xiaoyan said frankly, “The European PV market will face a new challenge, because after several years of development, the simple rapid growth period should be coming to an end.” Xiao Xiaoying believes When solar power generation accounts for less than 1% of the total power grid, the growth rate is fast and will not have a big impact on the power grid. “But when it becomes a very important contributor to the entire energy system, it has to interact with the entire power grid and other power systems. This is going to enter a new stage of development. The period should be over."  

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