Analyze and forecast the future trend of energy power
On September 15th, at the State Grid Energy Research Institute's 2013 Basic Research Annual Report Conference, State Grid Energy Institute and related experts from government agencies, universities and other organizations gathered together to focus on current hot issues in the field of energy and power. They have their own opinions and fully communicated with each other. Among them are the analysis of major trends, the current situation of the industry, and the exploration of in-depth reasons. The prediction of future trends has brought a wonderful brainstorm.
Judgment on the supply and demand situation of international and domestic energy power
At the press conference, Feng Fei, Minister of Industry and Economic Affairs of the Development Research Center of the State Council said that the world's energy industry may usher in a period of major adjustments and major changes, mainly in three areas. The first is the transformation of the global energy economy, driven by technology. . The second is that the global energy supply and demand structure may undergo major changes. Along with the characteristics of shifting the focus of production to the west and shifting the focus of consumption to the east, this may lead to major changes in the global energy supply and demand system, especially in terms of price and pricing mechanisms. The United States is now seeking global oil and gas pricing power. The third is energy-induced geopolitical adjustments, especially energy security issues. Last year, the US’s dependence on foreign oil has fallen below 40%, and dropped by 5 percentage points within a year.
According to Zhang Yunzhou, dean of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, there are two aspects to be concerned about the structure and growth of China's energy power development. On the one hand, investment and production in high-energy-consuming industries are expected to gradually slow down, which will lead to a decline in the growth rate of energy and electricity consumption. On the other hand, with the upgrading of industrial structure, end-use energy adjustment and the rapid development of renewable energy, the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will continue to rise. It is estimated that the proportion of energy consumption in terminal energy consumption will reach 28% in 2020, which is about 5.5 percentage points higher than the current increase. In general, the growth in electricity demand will be faster than the growth in energy demand, and we must ensure the safe and reliable supply of electricity.
Yu Yanshan, Director of the Development and Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, is currently organizing the preparation of the National Energy Strategy Development Action Plan (2013-2020) and is preparing to initiate the preliminary research work for the 13th Five-Year Energy Plan. He put forward the question of how much energy demand will be in the future, whether quantitative changes or qualitative changes will occur, and how to judge them, so as to allow the participating experts to think together.
Energy Structure Adjustment and Energy Saving and Emission Reduction
China is in the window of opportunity for energy transformation and development. Feng Fei believes that one aspect of energy transformation is economic restructuring. When overcapacity occurs in China's heavy chemical industry and structural adjustment reaches a new stage, the data from historical evolution has been pushed backwards. It is difficult to accurately determine China's future energy and electricity demand. On the other hand, there are environmental-driven changes such as PM2.5 and local pollutants. We should focus on the implementation of total energy consumption control on fossil energy, and play its obvious role in structural adjustment.
Zhang Yunzhou analysis pointed out that since the beginning of winter last year, the persistence and large area of ​​severe haze weather in the eastern and central regions of China is a concentrated expression of the extensive energy production and utilization methods that have reached the critical point of environmental impact. To change the mode of development, there are already wide-ranging consensuses in all aspects of society and the country will take unprecedented measures. In the field of energy and electricity, major pollution treatment methods include cutting coal, increasing natural gas, and alternative use of clean energy.
Combining the Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control issued by the State Council on September 12, he said that the plan clearly stated that by 2017, the proportion of coal in total energy consumption fell below 65% of the energy structure adjustment target. In the future, energy consumption is faced with more and more rigorous constraints on the total amount and structure. This will have an important impact on the balance of energy supply and demand in the coming period. Accelerating the pace of construction of main grids including UHV, and increasing the scale of trans-regional transmission, thereby reducing the total amount of coal-fired power generated at the receiving end, is effective in controlling haze in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region. The strategic measures, multi-pronged approach, can achieve short time and quick results, but also can effectively support the local economic and social sustainable development of the power needs. It is expected that the proportion of electricity received outside the districts of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta will gradually increase to more than 30% in the next five years.
According to the “Action Plan for Prevention of Atmospheric Pollution,†Wei Xinhua, deputy inspector of the Department of Industry, Trade and Trade of the State Council Research Office, stated that the public’s requirements for clean air belong to the common sense category, and common sense things are full of vitality.
Distributed Energy and Smart Grid Development
Distributed energy is another hot issue discussed on the day. Feng Fei's point of view is that distributed energy and micro-grid is a trend in the future development of the power industry. Zhang Yunzhou proposed that the promotion of sustained and healthy development of distributed energy requires the joint efforts of government departments, power companies and all parties in society. It must be noted that centralized energy supply and supplemented by distributed energy supply are still the main characteristics of electricity production and supply at this stage and even in the future. Regardless of whether new energy is being developed centrally or distributedly, it is necessary to support large-scale power grids, establish a large-scale configuration platform, and integrate new energy resources, market demands, and system adjustment capabilities. This is the only way to solve the problem of grid-connected consumption and achieve sustained and healthy development.
Professor Yong Yong of the Department of Electrical Engineering of the Department of Electrical Engineering and Applications of Tsinghua University did research on the smart grid of the Ministry of Science and Technology. He said that in the past few years, the country has done a lot of work under the banner of the smart grid. The investments of the Ministry of Science and Technology and the State Grid Corporation of China are very large. Local governments and private companies are also very concerned. In order to make the smart grid technology more orderly and further break through the bottleneck and give full play to its own advantages, he called for the establishment of a special coordination agency at the national level, and introduced relevant support policies for technological development.
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