Zhang Xiangmu talks about equipment manufacturing: how to see and how to do it

[Before] On December 23, 2015, China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association held the 7th executive director (expansion) meeting of the 7th, and invited Director Zhang Xiangmu of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to attend the meeting and give a speech. Director Zhang is on the current economy. The situation, especially the operation trend of the machinery industry, communicated with the delegates. The content of the speech can be condensed into six words, namely, “how to look” and “how to do it”.
The following are the main points of Mr. Zhang’s speech.
As the industry management department, the Equipment Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is very concerned about the development of the machine tool industry. I hope to understand the difficulties and problems encountered by enterprises in the context of economic downturn. I also hope that the government will stabilize the growth, adjust the structure, transform and upgrade, and reduce costs and increase efficiency. Focus on the machine tool industry. The content of communication with you here can be summarized as 6 words, one is "how to look", and the other is "how to do it."

First, how to look at the current economic situation, especially the operating trend of the machinery industry
From the perspective of the entire machinery industry, 2014 was a decline in domestic demand and export growth. In 2015, both exports and domestic demand fell, and corporate profits fell sharply. The machine tool industry is similar to the entire machinery industry, but the machine tool industry is more difficult. It is important to emphasize that the problems we encounter are not cyclical. It is not that the situation will get better in a few years, and we must lose the illusion of waiting for the next round of economic peaks. The central government's estimate of the economic situation in the next few years is that the international economy will be further adjusted, and the domestic economic downturn has not yet bottomed out. 2016 may be more difficult than 2015. Therefore, we must have a long-term arduous struggle for mental preparation, a strategic endurance, and a tactical fight against annihilation.
Further subdivided into the equipment manufacturing industry, due to the close relationship with fixed assets investment, the situation is even less optimistic. Relevant analysis judged that the growth of most fixed-asset investment, including infrastructure, has reached the ceiling, and another round of large-scale economic stimulus is not desirable or feasible. The machine tool industry is more closely related to fixed asset investment. It is impossible to return to 2010 and 2011. We must have long-term mental preparations, and we must estimate the difficulties more seriously when considering problems.
The contradictions and problems we encountered in the near future showed a decline of four liters, that is, the economic growth rate declined, the industrial product price fell, the corporate profits fell, the fiscal revenue growth decreased, the probability of risk increased, and the central government judged the economic situation in 2016. It is a weak recovery. From this we can see that the economic situation we are facing is very serious and very difficult. Once again, we must emphasize that we must be mentally prepared.

Second, under the new normal, how should the machine tool industry do?
The problems we have encountered are accumulated in the long-term high-speed growth and development. Although these problems must be solved through development, they must not be solved by the development of traditional ideas, ideas and models. The way can't solve the current problem.
Although the problems encountered in the equipment manufacturing industry are not as serious as those in the raw material industry, overcapacity is also very prominent. Relatively better, many sub-sectors in the equipment manufacturing industry are not absolute overcapacity, but more structural excess. Taking the machine tool industry as an example, there is a serious overcapacity mainly referring to ordinary machine tool products.
The Central Economic Work Conference put forward the five major tasks of structural reform in 2016. One of them is to go to production capacity. There are three main categories: First, for several high-capacity industries, the government will introduce specific policies and methods; The industry proposes to deal with the task of “zombie enterprises”; third, for most industries, it is to guide the implementation of mergers and acquisitions. In this situation, our machine tool industry must work hard to handle capacity. It is foreseeable that the better the industry will be in dealing with excess capacity in the future, the better the days will be.

1. The government's actions. At present, the central government has reviewed the situation and moderately expanded domestic demand. At the same time, it has accelerated supply-side reforms, exerting strength from both the demand side and the supply side, but paying more attention to supply-side structural reforms, and achieving a high level of supply-demand balance from a low level of supply and demand balance. It has also issued five major policy pillars, namely, macroeconomic policies must be stable, industrial policies must be accurate, microeconomic policies must be lived, reform policies must be realistic, and social policies must be bottomed out. In 2016, the government will also increase the fiscal deficit moderately, mainly to support tax cuts and reductions. In particular, it is also proposed to study the reduction of manufacturing VAT rates.
Entrusted by the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is formulating a three-year action plan for the transformation, upgrading, cost reduction and efficiency improvement of 11 industries including automobiles and machinery. In 2016, the central government also implemented three special actions in the process of stabilizing growth and restructuring, one is to improve the special action of consumer goods supply; the other is the special action to reduce costs and increase efficiency; the third is the special action of manufacturing upgrade. Among them, the special action of upgrading the manufacturing industry mainly relies on “Made in China 2025”. The special actions of reducing costs and increasing efficiency also have many specific contents, including reducing the financial cost and system cost of the enterprise, and paying the tax for the enterprise, and the financial sector is the benefit of the real economy. Wait.
As an industry management department, it is very hopeful and has been working hard to incorporate the machinery industry, especially the machine tool industry, into the scope of a series of new government policies.

2. The way out for the company. As we all know, the machine tool is the working machine of the equipment manufacturing industry. However, the advanced production equipment of the enterprise is basically imported, and the domestic machine tool equipment in the fields of aviation, aerospace, automobile, electronics and integrated circuits is hard to enter. To build a manufacturing powerhouse, we must not only see whether our products are world-class, but also whether the equipment that produces them is made in China. Therefore, the key to manufacturing powerhouses depends on whether machine tool equipment can be self-sufficient. If the machine tool is still imported, then the connotation of a manufacturing powerhouse is not enough.
In the future economic development process, the total demand will not increase much, especially the implementation of intelligent manufacturing, and the company's efficiency will not increase so much capacity. If you can't upgrade your company's own technology, products and competitiveness, and stay in the original development model, it will be difficult to achieve transformation and upgrading. Therefore, enterprises must innovate, have decent products, and must not stay in the low-end, low-quality, low-reliability low-end stage. Under the new normal, innovation will be the only way for enterprises.
At present, the government is formulating a series of preferential policies to support innovation, and hopes that enterprises will pay more attention to it. Since the machine tool industry has experienced the experience of VAT refunds in the history of the machine tool industry, it is recommended that industry companies should actively participate in the formulation of policies such as cost reduction, efficiency reduction, tax reduction and reduction.
(According to the recording, I have not considered it.)

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