Winter electricity gap or up to 30 million kilowatts

Hao Weiping, deputy director of the National Energy Administration’s Electric Power Department, said on the 29th that China’s electricity supply and demand situation is not optimistic in the winter and next spring. Considering the uncertainties of the winter climate, some regions in the country will still face a tight supply of electricity at different levels.

In an interview with reporters recently, Dan Guoguo, the president of the National Grid Energy Research Institute, said that on the one hand, the number of incoming water during the winter season was relatively low. On the other hand, according to the current situation of rising coal prices, electric coal may be tense. The electricity gap is expected to exceed 30 million kilowatts.

In the winter, the electricity gap or 30 million kilowatts of single Shan states that as the weather turns cold in late August, the peak of electricity consumption during the peak summer season gradually falls, after the off-season of traditional electricity use in September and October, this winter and even the whole country. The electricity situation will gradually become clear.

Looking back at this year, Shan Yuguo told reporters that the electricity shortage during January of this year was about 30 million kilowatts. The main reasons for this were the inaccessibility of water, large electric coal gaps, and insufficient transmission capacity of the power grid.

In the summer peak season, the electricity gap in the country is also about 30 million kilowatts. This round of electric power shortage is characterized by the obvious shortage of electricity in the south. Shan Yuguo told reporters that the situation in the south facing water and coal shortages lasted for a long time.

Regarding the shortfall in electricity consumption this winter, Singguo said that the situation this winter depends on the solution to the problem of power coal. According to the current situation that the price of electric coal has been rising, the use of electricity in winter is not optimistic. “Because the incoming water during the winter season is definitely less, if the coal is tight, the electricity consumption gap is expected to be more than 30 million kilowatts this winter.”

According to the reporter’s understanding, the electricity shortage during the electricity shortage in 2004 was 30 million kilowatts. Although this year is almost the same in absolute terms, the increase in electricity load is quite different. Shuangguo forecast that the growth rate of social electricity consumption in September is basically the same as in August, which is about 9%, while in October and November, the year-on-year increase will increase due to the lower energy consumption and emission reduction base. However, the annual growth in electricity load will remain at around 12%.

Calling for measures to stabilize coal prices It can be said that the electricity situation will continue to be tight this winter, and the factors that affect power generation are still many: the winter water situation is not optimistic, the price of coal has started to rise, the existing power grid transmission capacity is limited, and the enthusiasm of power generation companies is not high.

Shuangluo said in forecasting the electricity situation this winter: In the case of sufficient coal inventory, it can be said that the electricity consumption gap is not significant this winter, but in fact the gap has always existed, especially in East China and Huazhong, which rely heavily on external input Area.

The reporter learned that the problem of market coal and planned electricity has existed in China for a long time. This year, the willingness of the power plant to save coal has decreased. Some power generation enterprises in Hunan, Shanxi, and Guizhou have reserved only 10 days of coal storage in winter this year. The difference in the days of coal storage is greater. In this regard, Shan Daoguo believes that the reasons why power plants cannot buy coal and buy coal do not have the following reasons: In July and August, although coal prices have declined slightly, they have now risen again.

“The formation mechanism of coal prices is too complicated. From the coal mines to the power plants, the increase in taxes and fees, transport costs have become one of the main reasons for pushing up the price of electric coal.” Faced with the current rise in the price of thermal coal, Shanda reiterates that There are specific measures to stabilize the coal price.

For some power generation companies, it is recommended to impose coal profits tax, Shanda said that to resolve the contradiction of coal, timely implementation of coal-fired linkage, which is currently the most effective way. However, coal-fired linkage is, after all, only a short-term emergency measure. The deep demand reflected by the electricity shortage is still a question of electricity price reform. “Later electricity prices and time-sharing electricity prices will be gradually implemented. Now, electricity prices are relatively low compared to other energy sources and should be appropriately increased to guide the rational use of electricity and reduce electricity consumption.” Shan Weiguo said, “Twelve During the "Five" period, it is a trend to implement different electricity prices depending on the level of energy consumption.