Read the article to understand why the reform is stagnating

I am very happy to have this opportunity to communicate with you, the supply-side structural reform under the new normal. Recently, do you see that the predictions about China's economic situation are very pessimistic? My personal feeling seems to be a pessimistic expectation for both the global economy and the Chinese economy. Is this pessimistic expectation right or not?

I feel that the economy is hopeless.
From the perspective of lagging indicators, the Chinese economy is indeed worrying. For example, the employment rate and unemployment rate are not good. From the perspective of synchronization indicators, it is not good. What is the synchronization indicator? For example, electricity consumption, such as the volume of railway traffic, and so on. There is no sign of improvement in the Chinese economy. But from the leading indicators, I am happy to tell you that many leading indicators have shown signs of bottoming out.
What are the leading indicators? Here are four indicators: First, the new CPI and PPI, which are the leading indicators of consumption. What is the core CPI is to eliminate food and oil, and the price index of raw materials is called the core CPI. At present, China's core CPI has not gone down for three or four months. This means that the total retail sales of our goods, that is, the general decline in consumption may have been stifled. It does not necessarily rebound upwards, but it will level off at the relative 11th and 12th.
On November 9 last year, I went to the State Council to give Prime Minister Ke Qiang a report to some deputy prime ministers and more than 30 ministers. I told the leaders that although the Chinese economy is still lagging behind the indicators, although the simultaneous indicators are not enough, the leading indicators already have Signs of stabilization. At that time, I predicted that consumption might not go down.
Second, PPI, this is the producer price index. Producer prices, everyone usually looks at it high or low, or 46 consecutive down, does this make sense? Significant. But it is important to note that PPI is the leading indicator of investment. If the PPI has been going down, it is negative, and corporate investment must have no confidence. At the end of 2013, I published a lot of articles at the beginning of 2014, making very pessimistic predictions about China's economy and making recommendations to the above leaders.
But at this time, mainstream economists told the leaders that this is not the case. It is said that this is the new normal. Although the economy has declined a little, the quality of economic growth is improving. Although the investment has fallen rapidly, everyone’s consumption has taken up, driving the economy. The proportion is getting better. I remember that the three most heard in 2013 were the new normals. Later, the new normal was called the new mediocrity in the world.
Today's topic is the supply-side structural reform under the new normal. Why are everyone willing to add the new normal? This is the habit of China. When the leader says the new normal, he follows the new normal. This is at least an incorrect judgment made in 2013 and 2014. When the measures are taken, no measures are taken, so we have any forward-looking predictions.
In 2013, it began to grow steadily, so that interest rates were so high, and many companies were killed. In 2014, interest rate cuts should be cut as soon as possible. I was not the same as them for the first time. They said the new normal at that time. I said that the economy was over, and I quickly took measures. Now they are panicking and say that they have to wait for three or five years. I said that, in the end.
This was a similar experience in February 2009. After the financial tsunami in 2008, after the global financial turmoil, the world panicked. When did Premier Wen ask everywhere? No one dares to speak. At that time, I can look at my article. I said that the Chinese economy has bottomed out. In February 2009, that was the bottom of the last round of economic cycles that I accidentally predicted. This time I saw the same indicators, so when I said that China’s economic growth was the most pessimistic, it might have bottomed out. Because of the success of the bottom, the superior prime minister also invited me to the State Council to report to them.
Third, M1 is the leading indicator of price. What is M1? M1 is the most active piece of money, plus cash plus international production. If you want to buy a house, you should first turn it into a current period; you want to buy stocks and turn it into a regular period. Otherwise you can't buy it. So M1 is the most active part of the economy. The rebound in M1 growth means that asset prices are about to stabilize. Therefore, the Chinese M1 price actually began to bottom out in September.
From six o'clock to thirteen or fifteen. M1 rebound means that consumption recovery means that real estate prices can't fall, even if some small and medium-sized cities have more stocks, but the core city houses are rising, the central city is stable, so the possibility of real estate prices going down is not Very big, because the money goes without it. The improvement in M1 monetary conditions means that asset prices will stabilize.
Fourth, the PMI indicator. Some economists often say that the stock line is called the stock line when the PMI is lower than 50, and it is better than 50. If you look at it, we can all be economists. PMI should be structured. For example, it has a new order index, an inventory index, and a raw material index. If you are an entrepreneur, do you think about the circumstances when you are the worst company? For example, if you suddenly find that the order is gone, things can't be sold, will you close the factory immediately?
I don't think you will, you have to finish the raw materials first. After the completion, it will not be produced, and then it will be the problem of layoffs and so on. So when the economy is reduced, the raw materials are used up, and the survival is almost the same. The new orders start to rise. At that time, it is the bottom, which is the worst time for the economy.
So we saw the three indexes of PMI. In October and November, raw materials reached a new low, and new products were reversed. From this aspect, the Chinese economy has actually not used too much pessimism. The latest data is in continuous improvement. After I made that judgment in November, the November retail data released in November, the total retail sales of goods actually began to improve, the data in December is also improving, industrial added value is also improving, fixed assets investment Not so bad. In fact, whether you predict consumption or forecast exports, you are lowering your forecast and what are your low forecasts for 2016.
Now that real estate has fallen into single digits, it is almost zero, and exports have become negative growth. You still expect it to be so bad, so it goes up. Don't be too pessimistic, the darkness before dawn is the best, and when you feel hopeless, it's almost the end.
There are several possible reasons for this. We will see it later. For example, when you can't see the steel, you can see that when the coal is not going to work, when you see the car and the real estate are not going to work, do you think about why Huawei's Huawei sold 100 million mobile phones this year? Why are they catching up with Samsung? When I went to Shenzhen to report to the municipal government and the city leaders in December, they told me that the financial revenue growth in 2015 exceeded 30%. Why is it more than 30%? Because he has Huawei, because he has Tencent, because he has a Dali drone. Don't look at the old economy, the new ones.

Don't worry about what the market says, the government will do it when it feels right.
This is the next step to talk about why there is a supply-side structural reform. Why is there such a word coming out after five consecutive years of economic downturn? The basic principle is here. After 2010, the US economy rebounded and recovered for five consecutive years. The Chinese economy has been down for five consecutive years. In the first quarter of 2010, the quarterly GDP growth rate was positive 13%. The data I see now is less than 7, six. Even if this is seven, six or a few, maybe many people still have moisture, not necessarily true. It’s true and false, I don’t comment here. Anyway, I don't think this thing can be matched.
The electricity consumption is negative, the railway traffic is not good, and finally it has reached seven. In the end, how did it get out? Believe it or not, I don't understand it anyway. In short, our economy is very poor after 2010. But why is the United States very good, we are very poor? There is a short-term reason and there is a long-term reason. The short-term is the continuous quantitative easing in the United States. After 2010, the RRR will be lowered, interest rates will be cut, and the invoices will be desperately made. The economy is good.
In 2010, China was tightening. In 2010-2011, it was tightening for a year. Because inflation has risen, Chinese leaders are particularly afraid of inflation. When I gave a report to Premier Wen in 2010, I said that we should rationally deal with inflation and not be afraid of inflation. Before 1996, China called the shortage economy. Therefore, all of you here, including the Prime Minister, have read the inflation in the primary school, and how the inflation of the Kuomintang was killed and the bankruptcy was issued, so the government fell.
Inflation in the 1980s was mixed with the June 4th and so on, so the leader was scared when he heard inflation. So after I talked about inflation, Premier Wen told me that Teng Tai was right. At the time, I asked him to care about the core CPI and not to look at the austerity. He said that as a prime minister, it is necessary to pay attention to both the core CPI and the CPI, because it is related to the lives of ordinary people.
There are two things that can bring down the government: one is official corruption and the other is inflation. This is the great shadow that inflation has left in their minds. After 1996, there was basically no inflation. The prices have risen for several rounds. Has your family hoarded rice? The era of shortage has long passed, but why are prices fluctuating? Because of the supply side.
The price volatility after 1996 is mainly due to fluctuations in the price of meat, which has nothing to do with the economy. The sow can't give birth to a pig. What is the use of money for it? The same is true for food. The labor cost is the same. As an entrepreneur, how much does the labor cost increase? If the average wage of Chinese workers is 15% per year, the CPI is 1.98. How many prices have risen when the bulk of raw materials rose in the past few years? How much cost increase does logistics cost bring?
Therefore, the fluctuation of labor costs, raw material costs, logistics costs, food prices and pork prices, caused by the rise in prices, what is the use of the total monetary policy tightening? So in the past ten years, every time we have risen in price, we have come up with money. In the era of excess, nothing dares to raise prices casually. It does not raise prices when oil prices rise, nor does it raise prices when artificially raising prices.
In 2010, I published a book, "Teng Tai Perspective Inflation." The leaders of the National Development and Reform Commission asked me to give lectures and tell them about the complicated price. Can not listen to flicker, can not lie to the common people, as soon as the price rises, it will send more money and so on. So in 2010 we had two tightenings. In 2010 and 2011, it engaged in a tightening. In 2013, it made a money shortage, and the interest rate was reduced to 10%, 20%, and 30%. The economy is not finished.
People are doing quantitative easing, you are pulling your neck and dying, can your economy be good? The whole world is issuing money. The United States, Japan, Europe, and Europe all have negative interest rates. Why don’t you blame Americans for issuing money? Therefore, the principle of Chinese economics, the environment is very complicated. If one billion people think that the banknotes are getting more, they will tighten and the economy will be finished. Everyone thought it was correct during the Cultural Revolution, is it correct? Therefore, the decision must be like Premier Zhu Rongji, no matter what the market said, I just want to do it right, and finally the economy is good, the people are not saying hello. The economy is so poor, and it has been tightening for the fifth consecutive year. In 2010 and 2011, it was tightening. In 2013, the money shortage was caused, so the first reason for the economic downturn was this.
Second, the supply structure is aging. In 2010, the industrial chain represented by Apple entered the expansion stage. This is the supply level of one unit to stimulate multiple demand, so it quickly promoted the US recovery. Light Apple Inc. contributes 0.5% of US GDP. Too many industries in China are in the stage of maturity and supply aging.
Supply mature industries such as real estate and automobiles, and supply aging industries such as steel, coal, and construction. Effectively supply mature industries, the supply of one unit can stimulate the demand of one unit, and it can form a cycle. For those companies that supply aging, the effective supply of one unit can create up to one-ninth of the effective demand.
Therefore, the more resources are invested in the supply of aging resources, the lower the efficiency of China's economic operation. So apart from the monetary tightening policy, what is the way to fundamentally reverse the Chinese economic downturn? It is the main contradiction that turns China's economic operation, and the structural aging on the supply side.
The aging of supply structure is the main contradiction of China's current economic operation, so the way to change this problem is the supply-side structural reform. So here I will introduce to you clearly, why is there a supply-side reform? On November 9 last year, I went to report to Prime Minister Ke Qiang. The topic was to start from the supply-side reform, reduce the cost of enterprises in an all-round way, and open a new cycle of economic growth. After the meeting, I also stressed that the Prime Minister must organize new supply. Apple is a business. He said yes.

The willingness to reform at a high level is absolutely no problem, and no interest groups obstruct the reform.
In addition to reversing the economic downturn, the supply-side structural reform is also a consensus. At the time of the 18th National Congress, memories recalled what you thought as an entrepreneur when you were in August and September 2012. You must be guessing and judging, what will the new leaders do? Where will this country go? Go left or right? I was guessing this at the time. But the new leader is not good to announce what he is not officially taking over.
So at that time, we saw such three articles in the Wenhui Daily in Shanghai. In August 2012, the whole article published "Standing on Economic Construction as the Center". In September 2012, "Adhere to the reform of the socialist market economy is unwavering." October 2012 "Deng Xiaoping Theory and Socialism with Chinese Characteristics". After the three full-page articles came out, the layman did not look at it. You probably don’t look at it. It’s not that you are a layman. You don’t understand how the Chinese small circle spreads. Generally, you don’t see things like Wenhui Daily. The theory itself is rather boring. .
The author of this article is Liu Ji, Honorary Dean of the China Europe Business School. I was in the 18th National Congress in November. I walked with Liu Lao in December. He told me the background of this article. This is before General Secretary Xi’s new leadership change. Liu Laolai came to Beijing to communicate with them. After returning, he published these three things.
Therefore, after 2013, everyone knows clearly that this government basically has these three: the economic construction center is unwavering, the economic reform is unwavering, and socialism with Chinese characteristics. It is because of these actions that people’s expectations for reform were paralyzed in 2012. In 2013, the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee was held, and the Third Plenary Session was proposed to make the reforms benefit all the people and so on. Therefore, in 2013, the communiqué of the Third Plenary Session was released, and the expectation of reform in China reached an unprecedented climax.
Two years later, especially after the stock market crash in June last year, the good expectations of reforms by Chinese investors, entrepreneurs and ordinary people fell to a very low low. The stock crash has poured out many expectations, and the other is that there are improvements? Of course, the second-child policy has been liberalized, and education, medical care, and so on have not changed. The progress, speed, and intensity of the reform are far below market expectations.
Some people say that the high-level reform willingness is reduced, and interest groups are obstructing? In my personal opinion, there is absolutely no problem with the willingness to reform at the highest level. Second, there is no interest group that dares to obstruct reform. Without reform, I think there are two reasons. This is a report I sent in 2015, called reversing the economic downturn and reuniting to represent consensus.
The general meaning of that report is that there is no problem with the will of high-level reform, and there is no interest group obstruction, but the expectation is that the top-level design capability is wrong. We have a deep reorganization, there are more than 20 people, in addition to part-time, full-time cadres more than a dozen people.
In ancient times, we knew that there was a tribute to Meng Tseng in the Spring and Autumn Period. A Meng Tingjun still has three thousand experts. How do you have to raise 30,000 experts to promote such a big reform? Can you design a reform plan for China with more than a dozen people? So the design capability of the top layer is actually not enough. How to change the power system reform? You don't have to guess, it must be led by the SERC, then it will let the State Grid participate, so report it up, come back and forth, come back and forth with a plan, don't say anything, what do you say can come out? All reforms are like this. So I said that the top design capability is a problem.
The second one is to launch the grassroots. Why is the reform in the 1980s good? It was not designed by the top layer, but created by the grassroots. Therefore, the article we published soon saw the response from the upper level. Before and after the Fifth Plenary Session in October, the general secretary held a deep reorganization. I said that I would build a high-end think tank and let Yunshan meet 25 units. I think those people are still Do those live. After the incident came out, I was very happy. First, people paid attention to this high-end think tank. It was quite good. Second, it was this practice. I gave two comments. First, I was on the shelf. Second, I didn’t find the right path. Later, I also watched the general secretary hold a meeting of the deep reform group, and the reform should launch the grassroots. I was happy after seeing the latter half, and half was not happy. Did you launch the grassroots and talk to those dozens of people? I went to Shenzhen to talk about launching the grassroots, and this was done.
In short, the reform has come to this day, because it is lower than market expectations, so five needs a new thing to re-converge people's confidence in reform and re-establish reform consensus. Looking for something to find? Neoliberalism can't be done, the planned economy can't do it, Keynesianism doesn't work, and in the end it can only supply side reform.
Therefore, the supply-side reform not only captures the main contradictions of China's current economic operation, but also is an inevitable choice to reunite the reform consensus. From the perspective of practical effects, everyone saw the heat of the past one or two months. After the general secretary raised it, one or two months were all supply-side reforms, although everyone did not know what it meant. I didn't know when I reported to the provincial leaders from the provinces. I knew it after I finished speaking. But this did play a role in reuniting the reform consensus. The central economic work talks about the supply-side structural reform, and the locals also talk about it, so this has played a role in building consensus, but how can it be changed?
Let me first introduce how we understand the structural reforms that we called for supply side three years ago. In November 2012, I published three articles, called the New Supplyism Declaration. Generally speaking, if the economy continues along the old road, the three carriages: investment, consumption, and export execution will not work. There is no potential for investment, consumption is not good, and exports are not good, but if you see that these three things are not working, you think that the Chinese economy is finished, that is the wrong view, because the three carriages are not wealth at all. The source of the source is not the source of economic growth at all, it is only the condition of value. If there is no export, investment, or consumption, then it is impossible to sell things, so it will affect economic growth.
What is the source of true wealth? First, population and labor. We are the source of wealth. You are the source of wealth. Everyone who creates wealth is labor, and land resources. Third, capital finance, there is no money to invest in wealth. Fourth, management and institutions, institutions are also the source of wealth. Fifth, technology and innovation, these are the sources of wealth. When I saw that the three carriages could not move, I found that the five major sources of wealth can be excavated to a great extent. So this was published in November 2012. After Jia Kang they also published some, the meaning is different from me, he called eight pairs of five and five, but which is eight pairs, they have been working with me for several years, and did not remember. These articles were published in 2013, and the call for new supplyism is to promote reforms from the supply side.
Why did you release this thing in 2012? In fact, the "New Wealth" published in 2005 is also a supply-side reform. The publication of Fortune Awakening in 2008 also promoted supply-side reforms. But unfortunately, when the last government talked about these things, no one listened. They were only interested in the turning point of economic operation, and they were interested in the price turning point. They are keen on economic macroeconomic regulation and control. Why did you choose to publish an article on November 9, 2012? That was the second day after the 18th National Congress was held, and the second day of the Central Economic Work Conference was held.
Therefore, since ancient times, there have been thousands of horses, and Bole is not always there. Therefore, in the specific context, new supplyism will attract the attention of policy makers of the times. Why did I publish so many articles in succession in 2013, because I received a response after I came up. After 2013, the government began to follow this path. In July 2013, the book "Famous and Rich, New Supplyism, One Hundred Years of Strong Country Road" was published. After four months, the contents of the Third Plenary Session coincided with most of the contents of this book, such as the relaxation of the household registration system. Why I don't know why it coincides, because my book was before the Third Plenary Session, this may be the same as the hero.
In fact, the structural reform of the supply side was clearly proposed in November this year. But in fact, in 2013, it was actually a supply-side reform. It did not tell the three carriages to run hard, so that the five wealth sources are fully influx. On November 9th, I was invited to give a report to the Prime Ministers, from the supply side reform, to comprehensively reduce costs and carry out a new cycle of economic growth. After seeing the supply side reforms a little bit hot, everyone who was here was full of interest in this gadget, but did not know what it was.
Let's talk about what is the supply side structure reform. One theory of new supplyism is whether supply can produce demand. Classical supply school, Say at that time thought that supply can automatically create their own needs, such as a company selling 10 million goods, this is supply. This tens of millions of goods will become entrepreneurs' income, workers' income, and so on. In short, a supply of 10 million will become a factor of 10 million, the owner's income. If you take the money that does not exist in the bank, you will use it to spend or invest, and depositing bank savings will also make an investment.
In short, 10 million supply will automatically create 10 million demand. In this down, the economy does not need government intervention. This is the classical supply school. The new supplyism, that supply can not create the same amount of demand, can only be created under certain conditions. Therefore, it is impossible to create an equal amount of demand during the supply aging phase. In the case of supply constraints, an equal amount of demand cannot be created. For example, a large number of administrative approvals, administrative controls, high financing costs, and high taxes. When these constraints are imposed, supply cannot create demand. When there is restraint, the cost of capital is suppressed, and when management is suppressed, it cannot create demand.
So from the perspective of economics, new supplyism believes that supply cannot create equal amounts of demand. New supplyist tasks should create conditions for supply to create demand. You reduce the supply aging through reform, let the new supply create new demand, reduce supply constraints through reform, cancel administrative approval, let supply create demand, and reform the five major sources of wealth to create demand. Therefore, the new supplyism is to reform the existing conditions and restore the balance of the economy. As soon as the equilibrium is restored, growth will resume.
What is new supply? We always talk about new supply and create new demands. It is just the Apple mobile phone, Huawei mobile phone, these new supply. New technologies, new business models, new organizational management models, and new formats are all new. New supply can create new demand.
We advocate that the future economic growth will be at five points. This is not human resources, but human thinking. Like I am doing resources here today, what earth resources do I consume, but it is also wealth, because you have gotten utility. All intellectual wealth, all works of art, are in fact the same. The source of its wealth is not art resources, mainly earth resources, but human labor and human thinking.
These five soft wealth accounts for 70% of the US economy and only 49% in China. Don't produce so much steel anymore, don't produce so much pollution-consuming resources that consume money. In the future, our needs are not simple food and clothing, but spiritual needs. It is the most important thing to satisfy our spiritual needs. Relying on spiritual needs depends on these five soft wealth.
When the cultural economy, the information economy, etc. are desperately moving forward, do traditional industries wait for death? of course not. What about traditional industries? All Americans drive Detroit cars, but Detroit's economy is in a slump. Why is the whole American driving its car and its economy is sluggish? In the midst of a depression, car advertising can make money, and auto finance also makes money. Therefore, making money related to cars is to make cars without making money. This is the future of hard wealth.
The future of hard wealth is Detroit, which is agriculture. When I was a child, in the countryside, the old man said that there is no farmer to eat what we eat, so we all think that the peasants are feeding us. I tell you that farmers all over the world do not pay taxes, and everyone is subsidizing them. We eat the food of the peasants, are we feeding them, or are they feeding us?
This must be clear from the perspective of the source of wealth. If there is a thousand acres of land in a village, it can be cultivated very well according to the current agricultural technology ten people, and the output can reach the highest efficiency. For social fairness and stability, one thousand people have to work there. Except for the ten people, the remaining 990 people are wasting social resources. The peasants are feeding us, but do we need so many people to farm? You make a car, who can't make a car?
You will make cars, so you don't make money, but some people make money. The former chief designer of Mercedes said that we are not selling cars. We sell art, but it happens to run. The manufacturer of this makes money. Tesla also earns money. Does it sell cars? Are you buying this car for running or for pulling people? You are trying to pull the wind. You are for fashion and environmental protection.
Moutai, you drink Maotai, it is delicious, it is vanity, or social taste, you think it is good to drink, I tell you how to drink ten pieces, what is the remaining 900 yuan to buy. So where is the future of China's manufacturing industry? Soft value. We can have enough to eat, and we can wear clothes. The purpose of buying a suit is not to shelter the wind and rain. Why spend thousands of dollars to buy it? So how do people's spiritual needs meet, this is the future.
So how does the Chinese economy transform and new supply creates new demand. When I gave a report to the Prime Minister, he understood very quickly. Prime Minister Ke Qiang said that we used to rely mainly on natural resources to create wealth. Now we rely more on human resources. We used to rely on labor. Now we rely more on wisdom. Many people went to Japan to buy toilet seats. People sold not the toilet lids and sold them healthily. In a few simple words, he pointed out the future of China's economic transformation.
So whether we are doing training or manufacturing, we must know that the direction of future transformation must not be to use resources, environment, and low-cost labor to create 5% and 10% gross profit, but how to attach it to it. More soft value, satisfy people's spiritual needs and increase your profits. An Apple phone is only 5% and 10% of the hardware made in China, but it sells software.
Macroscopically, an economic cycle is divided into four phases. This is the macro foundation of the new supplyist economics, that is, it has a new supply formation stage, a new supply expansion stage, a supply maturity stage, and an supply aging stage. In short, an economic cycle has these four phases. If you are always at this stage, like the US economy in 2010 is good, if there is a problem at this stage. The government can create conditions for the new supply side, not to turn off the enterprise, but to create conditions for the transfer of factors. The second is how to give the bottom to social policy. One is to let go, the other is to do Good social security work. New supplyist economics has long-term and short-term demands.
The first is to relax supply control. How many industries like taxi license management in China are hundreds or thousands, and tens of thousands don’t know. Therefore, every time a batch of administrative regulations is abolished, a batch of productivity will be liberated, and the economy will be fine.
Second, reduce financing costs. Chinese companies have the most money in China, but China has the most expensive money. Assuming that China's financing costs are reduced by one percentage point, how much will China's economic growth increase? Chinese companies will increase by 700 billion. Lowering the financing cost by two percentage points, corporate profits increased by 1.4 trillion. In 2013, they should reduce financing costs, and they are flustered. Of course, this time has come to the right path. Interest rates have fallen a bit in the past two years. The above is short-term and only fell in March. In November 2014, interest rate cuts were lowered, and long-term financing costs fell in 2015. Down to now we are still the highest in the world, so Chinese companies still bear high financing costs.
Third, tax cuts. In the United States in the 82-year quarter GDP has a ten-point increase, that is, the Reagan government tax cuts. After the tax cut, the economy has gotten up. In short, our economy is so bad, China's comprehensive tax is 40%, twice as expensive as in developing countries. Many people say that there is no room for tax cuts. I think there is room. The macro tax burden is 37%, so why not drop it? So at the meeting, I proposed to cut taxes by 3 trillion yuan, cut taxes, issue bonds, and help the future.
On the second night, the State Council’s article used our words and rationally expanded the scale. Our fiscal deficit is only 2.4%, and both Europe and the United States are high. However, after the tax cut, the government has to spend money, or the military is simple and civil servant. If the short-term can not be reduced, what should the government do to spend money? As for the issuance of debts, the issuance of three trillion yuan of debt will be over. Tax cuts are conducive to stimulating consumption. Bonding can absorb idle capital of the society. After three or five years, the economy is overheated, and inflation has begun. It has begun to pay off debts. Therefore, tax cuts and debt issuance will help the future. In short, we have the ability to reduce, unlike some experts say that can not be reduced.
Some experts have come to us to do supply side research and ask me how to investigate? I said that the issue of tax cuts should not ask the government, ask the company, and reflect the voice of the company to the leaders. Ask the government, saying that money is not enough, no matter what, they will never be enough. Recently, the high tax cost constraint, how to deal with China's economic growth potential in the long run? To release the five sources of wealth can open a new cycle of economic growth. How to release? One is population and labor. Reduce the supply suppression of the population, improve labor supply efficiency, and reduce labor costs.
Our labor costs have risen over the past decade, and our family nanny is now 10,000 yuan. So labor costs have lost many advantages. The household registration system is also very important. The per capita GDP of a person in rural areas is five times that of the city. What does the difference of 5 times mean? Assuming that this person runs from the countryside to the city to find a job, his contribution to the economy has increased fourfold. Therefore, the flow of people from low-efficiency departments to high-efficiency departments is the source of wealth. You let him not flow? If he ran over without giving a hukou, not letting the children go to school, the files were messy, how did they flow? Therefore, the release of the second child is a cumulative source of long-term wealth.
There are also problems with land resources. I always feel that China has no land. Who said that China has no land. Is such a big country without land? The 1.8 billion mu red line was originally a false proposition. In an open society, the concept of food security needs to be changed. If you fight tomorrow, will those countries starve to your people through the food embargo? I believe that no one is doing this now, and now it is humanitarian.
Agricultural technology has increased to this level, and food is not a problem. Always a view of food security decades ago, decades of inflation. So there is a lot of land in China, but there is a problem with supply. Real estate is so expensive, even industrial land is so expensive, business is expensive, how do companies do? In the end, the supply efficiency is not high, can the supply cost be reduced? Traveling to Europe, many cities are on the hills. We are now plains occupying land. Can we change them? A lot of peasants have already entered the city, and the village is still in the first place. Can it become cultivated land? Many similar questions are not being developed.
India's money is reasonable, because it has no savings, China has three or four trillion foreign exchange reserves, how our money is the most expensive, the United States should be the most expensive. Our financial institutions, our financial system, and our macro financial policies have done everything. The task they should do is to build a bridge between the residents, the departments that save the rich, and the enterprises at the lowest cost. This is the financial significance. In a word. But China’s financial institutions, financial systems, and financial policies have done something wrong? They dug a deep gap between the two.
So this is the reduction of financial repression proposed by the supply side reform. The system is also, the system is also the source of wealth, why the people's communes do not eat enough, how can the joint production contract responsibility system be? Because people's enthusiasm has improved, because the system has changed, the system is the source of wealth.
Do many state-owned enterprise people work with 30% of their strength, or use 50%?如果好好推动混合所有制改革，把30%、50%的积极性变成100%，200%，谁说中国经济不行。所以从总需求分析框架的人，一说投资不行了，消费不行了，出口不行了，中国经济完蛋了。房地产不行了，汽车不行了，中国经济完蛋了。
我告诉你们中国没有完蛋，取消一千个行业的管制，经济就回到8%、9%了。所以放松管制，降低融资成本，减税，中国经济短期立马能干好。有没有魄力干，五大财富源泉：土地、制度管理、资本、资源，这些东西，五大财富源泉都可以降低10%的供给成本。如果这五大方面都降低10%供给成本的话，你是经济增长能不能起来？所以这是我给总理讲的只有从供给侧改革，全面降低成本，才能开启中国经济增长的新周期。

供给侧改革需要真抓实干
供给侧改革需要真抓实干，不能陷入这几个误区，停留在概念炒作是没有意义的。但是中国很多人在干这个事。我干了十几年的供给侧财富论研究，三年来一直呼吁供给侧改革，但是没有动静。但是总书记一说全国人民一下热起来了。我不能在很浅的概念炒概念了，炒概念不能救中国，你得考虑供给侧改革怎么干。
所以我们为什么出版这本书，这本书不是讨论理论，前面一篇是理论，后面是讲五个方面怎么改。我的前沿是写的如何把供给侧改革落到实处。所以不要炒理论了，应该真抓实干。不能让供给侧改革回到计划经济或者产业政策道路上来。一听供给侧改革很多部门就要伸手了，这就变成计划经济了。
1996年的时候，我们1997年的时候，我们上上届总理还曾经限制过电力企业发展。03、04年的时候在拉闸限电的同时其在限制五大行业，谁生产钢铁好像犯了政治错误一样的。到了07年发现钢铁、水泥不够用了。
我们限制五大产业的时候支持光伏产业发展，过几年发现光伏过剩了。凡是曾经限制过的后来都不够了，凡是支持的后来都过剩了，你说你干预的啥劲？所以新供给经济学不是让政府之手乱摸，不是让它放手。
还有就是不能把供给侧结构管理和需求对立起来。在2012年我发表新供给侧改革宣言的时候，上来就是凯恩斯主义和货币改革误导中国。这个就是批评他们，为什么批评，因为我们是少数派，全中国都是三架马车，所以我们不批评一下，不撕开一道口子，没有痛点让他们感到难受的话，这个理论就得不到市场的关注。
现在我们变成主流了，全都是供给侧改革了，人家需求侧都很难受了，都跑过来骂三架马车，这时候再去骂就是小人了。需求侧有没有用？当然有用了。在城市地下管廊建设，政府投资还得扩大，在民生工程方面，政府还得扩大，货币政策方面还需要它降低融资成本，所以不能把供给侧就全是供给侧，一窝蜂。
总之，再回顾一下刚才的东西。供给性结构改革，这次我觉得是玩真的了。你们千万不要认为这是一个口号，又是一个呼吁。供给侧改革不是把凯恩斯主义全面否了，而是让政府全面放手，要要素流动，降低成本还会继续，等等的，但是这个过程确实要克服方方面面的阻力。
但是沿着这个方向走下去，供给这一侧可以挖掘的潜力非常大。供给侧改革能够得到深入改进的话，我本人对中国经济未来充满信心。五年前、十年前你不知道用苹果手机，三年前你甚至不你会用腾讯微信，五年以后的新需求是啥，新供给是啥，什么东西拉动中国经济我们也不知道。但是谁来创造这些东西，就是企业家。
（整理自作者在2016北清大总裁经济论坛上的演讲）

Solar Flood Light

Solar Flood Light,Solar Led Flood Lights,Solar Powered Flood Lights,Solar Powered Security Lights

Guangdong Smart Street Lighting Co., Ltd , https://www.gdfldlight.com