PV "policy bottom" shows the industry's expectations
Recently, the National Energy Administration held a symposium on the mid-term evaluation results of the 13th Five-Year Plan for solar energy development, and discussed the adjustment of the development planning targets in the 13th Five-Year Plan for photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation. The meeting stressed that PV is still a clean energy source supported by the state, and will receive more support in terms of subsidies and installed capacity targets.
Last week, the photovoltaic sector increased by 4.8%. After the opening of the market yesterday, due to the favorable factors of photovoltaic policy, the photovoltaic sector continued its upward trend. Longji shares, Sunshine Power, Linyang Energy, Tongwei shares and other stocks rose daily.
PV "policy" is expected to appear
The "13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development" released in December 2016 clearly states that by the end of 2020, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China is 105GW, and the installed capacity of CSP is 5GW. As of September 2018, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China has reached 165 GW, far exceeding the target of the 13th Five-Year Plan.
However, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently showed that the scale of the photovoltaic power generation market grew steadily in the first three quarters of 2018. The newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity was 34.54 million kilowatts, of which, the photovoltaic power station increased by 17.4 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 37%. Obviously; distributed photovoltaics added 17.14 million kilowatts, a contrarian growth of 12%.
This is closely related to the “531 New Deal†of the photovoltaic industry this year. The measures that have received more attention in the New Deal include lowering the PV subsidy standard, temporarily not arranging the scale of ordinary PV power plant construction, and distributing photovoltaics to only 10GW this year. This is the photovoltaic industry. I really stepped on the "quick brakes."
The "531 New Deal" has a great impact on the photovoltaic industry, especially the rapid reshuffle of the supply side. The industry has ushered in a round of low tide. However, the industry authorities have frequently held symposiums, and the "policy of the PV industry" has gradually emerged.
Among them, the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on photovoltaic power price policy at the beginning of last month, and discussed the impact of the “531 New Deal†on the photovoltaic industry with some enterprises, and analyzed the next policy direction.
At the recent symposium, including relevant energy authorities, the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute, the Electric Power Planning and Design Institute, the Hydropower and Water Resources Planning and Design Institute and other research institutes and the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and other industry associations and power grid enterprises and dozens of Representatives of the photovoltaic companies attended the meeting.
It is reported that the meeting mainly talked about four aspects: First, it is clear that there will be subsidies before 2022, and subsidized projects and peace price projects will be parallel; second, the scale of 13th five-year PV construction will be greatly improved, and it is considered that 210GW is not enough. Positive; the third is to approve household PV alone management; the fourth is to accelerate the introduction of industry policy in 2019 in the next month to stabilize market expectations.
According to the scale of PV installation, it is reported that the installed target is expected to be adjusted to more than 250GW, or even 270GW. Regarding the subsidy, the market interprets it as once again, it is clear that before the real “de-subsidy†is actually entered, the National Energy Administration still The annual subsidy scale will be guaranteed and the subsidy intensity will be further reduced.
Industry waiting for the details to land
The impact of the “531 New Deal†on the photovoltaic industry has been reflected in the three quarterly reports of some listed companies. For example, Longji's operating income for the first three quarters of this year was 14.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.26%; net profit for the same period was 1.69 billion yuan, down 24.53% year-on-year.
Sunshine Power achieved revenue of 1.75 billion yuan in the third quarter of this year, down 43.58% year-on-year; net profit for the same period was 224 million yuan, down 41.3% year-on-year. As the largest PV inverter manufacturer in China, the company was hit by the “531 New Deal†and the market demand declined significantly.
At the advent of the above-mentioned "policy", the market has regained confidence in the photovoltaic industry. Once the policy is implemented, the performance of leading enterprises is expected to improve. However, market participants still have to be cautious about the “policy bottom†of the reporters. “It is still uncertain how the relevant framework policies will fall and when to land, and still have to wait for the official final documents.â€
The reporter noted that many PV industry companies have recently made a lot of noise and are optimistic about the development of the industry. Among them, Liu Hanyuan, Chairman of Tongwei Co., Ltd. put forward three suggestions for the photovoltaic industry and energy transformation: First, firmly promote China's energy revolution and clarify the direction of renewable energy; Second, reduce and exempt renewable energy taxes and fees, and achieve full market within 2-3 years. The parity of the Internet under the conditions; the third is to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry.
Luo Xin, general manager of GCL integration, believes that after achieving parity online, the photovoltaic industry will face both challenges and opportunities. Among them, international cooperation will be the first opportunity for Chinese companies. Next year is the year of overseas market explosion. It is expected that 36-40 countries will enter the GW-level installed capacity.
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