Obvious decline in ship prices, China's shipbuilding industry is hard to say recovery
2022-12-08 12:07:47
According to data released by the China National Association of Shipbuilding Industry, in the first three quarters, China's shipbuilding industry continued to achieve substantial growth in shipbuilding completions and new orders, with major economic indicators maintaining double-digit growth, and the overall economy operating well. However, the changes in the exchange rate have a significant impact on the shipbuilding industry, and the decline in ship prices is evident. In addition, due to the weak recovery foundation of the shipbuilding market, the risks faced by the shipbuilding industry have not been eliminated.
A. Data Handheld Orders Continue to Pick Up The growth of various indicators continued to decline In the first 9 months, the country’s total shipbuilding capacity was 45.82 million dwt, which was a year-on-year increase of 65.0%. The new ship order volume was 50.71 million dwt, which was 3 times the amount of new orders received in the same period of last year.
In September, driven by the VLCC and the Panamax bulk carrier, orders for new vessels from the world have risen sharply. China's shipping companies still have outstanding orders, especially breakthroughs in container ships. In September, Shanghai Shipyard Ship Co., Ltd. undertook eight 3,800TEU (standard-box) container ships and Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipyard Co., Ltd. to undertake two 2500TEU container ships, and continued to change the single structure with a large proportion of bulk carriers in China's handheld orders.
Since the new ship orders for the month of September continued to exceed the amount of shipbuilding completed in the same month, China’s momentum of holding orders for ships from the end of April has continued to rise. By the end of September, China's hand-held ship orders reached 194.74 million dwt, which was a 3.5% increase over the end of 2009 and an increase of 1.2% over the same period of the previous year.
From January to September, the country withdrew 40 ship orders totaling 749,000 dwt, accounting for 0.38% of the total number of orders for hand-held vessels at the end of September. The key monitoring of the shipping companies in the month of September had no order cancellation.
Among the various economic indicators, the total industrial output value continued to grow, but the growth rate dropped significantly. In the first 9 months, 2054 shipbuilding enterprises above designated size achieved a total industrial output value of 486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, an increase of 8.3%. Among them, the shipping manufacturing industry was 370.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, a decrease of 14.1 percentage points; the ship supporting industry was 55.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, an increase of 16.2%; the ship repair and shipbreaking industry was 55.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2. %, an increase of 20.4 percentage points.
Export growth of ships also continued to decline. From January to September, shipbuilding enterprises completed 37.71 million DWTs of export ships, which accounted for 82.3% of the total number of shipbuilding projects; new orders for export vessels accounted for 38.84 million DWTs, accounting for 76.6% of the total new orders; as of the end of September, The number of export orders for ships was 170.10 million dwt, which accounted for 87.3% of the total amount of hand-held orders. Shipbuilding industrial enterprises above designated size achieved export value of 212.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, an increase of two percentage points. Among them, the shipbuilding industry totaled 178.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, an increase of 9.5 percentage points; the ship supporting industry was 7.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11%, an increase of 20.7 percentage points; the ship repair and shipbreaking industry was 24.1 billion yuan, an increase from the same period last year. 10.5%, an increase of 25 percentage points.
In the first 8 months, shipbuilding enterprises maintained growth through controlling investment in fixed assets, purchasing materials centrally, strengthening centralized fund management, broadening channels, and paying attention to cost reduction and efficiency gains. The increase in the total profit of the whole industry was higher than that of the increase of main business income by 6.6 percentage points.
From January to August, the main business income of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size was 460 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, a decrease of 10.5 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 267.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, an increase of 20.2 percentage points; the shipbuilding accessory manufacturing industry was 44.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, an increase of 13.7 percentage points; the ship repair and shipbreaking industry was 44.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase. 24.4%, an increase of 25.2 percentage points.
The total profit of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size totaled 27.4 billion yuan, an increase of 32.7% year-on-year, an increase of 38.2 percentage points. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 22.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, an increase of 38.3 percentage points; the shipbuilding accessory manufacturing industry was 2.41 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 17.2%; the ship repair and shipbreaking industry was 2.14 billion yuan, year-on-year It dropped by 16.4%, and the decrease narrowed by 30.1 percentage points.
B. Analysis of decline in ship prices The decline in shipbuilding profits has become an indisputable fact. According to the experts, from the data of the first three quarters, the performance of the ship market was clearly better than expected. In spite of this, a notable feature is that since the last year, the price of ships has fallen seriously. The price of the ship has rebounded this year, but it is still not good. The current price of new ships has dropped by 30% to 40% from the highest peak in 2008, and individual ships even exceed 40%. In addition, ship prices have fallen sharply and the current investment costs have fallen significantly, making ship owners step up efforts to build. However, it must be noted that most of the orders this year do not originate from genuine endogenous market demand, but come from the "bottom-bottoming" operation of non-mainstream shipowners and speculative capital.
While the ship price was declining, the cost of shipbuilding rose further. Experts told reporters that labor costs, raw material costs, monetary tightening, capital costs for raising interest rates, and management costs, together with other unpredictable factors, are expected to rise in the next few years. The decline in shipbuilding profits has become an indisputable fact. .
***Significant impact of exchange rate changes China Shipbuilding Industry Association stated that at present, changes in the exchange rate have been and will continue to have a significant impact on the industry.
Compared with other industries, the impact of *** appreciation on the shipbuilding industry has become more prominent and serious. It is estimated that the value of the exchange rate of *** will rise by 1% per liter. Shipbuilding companies' revenue from hand-held orders will decrease by about RMB 4 billion***. Since the reform of China’s exchange rate formation mechanism was restarted on June 19 this year, the *** has appreciated by more than 2% against the U.S. dollar, resulting in a reduction of revenues by the shipbuilding industry by nearly 10 billion yuan. If you continue to appreciate, the loss will be greater.
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the price of ships has generally declined by 20% to 30%, and some ships have even fallen by 40%. The Association of Shipbuilding Associations stated that the appreciation of *** will make our shipbuilding industry worse. Starting in 2013, there may be a loss in the entire industry. At the same time, the appreciation of *** will increase the cost of shipbuilding in China. In the price competition in the international market determined by the overall supply and demand relationship, it will seriously weaken the price competitive advantage of China’s ship products and widen the gap between international competitiveness of advanced shipbuilding countries. In addition, the appreciation of *** is conducive to improving the competitiveness of foreign marine supporting enterprises. To reduce costs, shipyards are more optimistic about imported equipment. The production environment of China's ship supporting enterprises will be even worse.
The problem of unbalanced ship type structure with unbalanced ship structure still cannot be ignored. At present, many shipbuilding companies have relied excessively on the bulk carrier market. This has also led to an overall overcapacity in the shipbuilding industry. Due to the unbalanced ship type structure, high-end production capacity is still insufficient. Experts said that in the future market, the bulk carriers that have always dominated may no longer be the mainstream. At present, there are both excesses in the global bulk carrier shipping and shipbuilding markets; as the world’s refining capacity and layout change, the global oil product ship, especially The demand for large-scale product oil tankers is relatively active; at the same time, the development of the container ship market is also expected to be the next step. Currently, the inquiry of the new shipbuilding market for container vessels has become increasingly active.
If the total transaction volume in 2010 exceeds 100 million DWT, based on the current macroeconomic situation and supply and demand in the shipping market, the probability of new ship turnover in 2011 as a basis for achieving further growth on this year is lower.
C predicts that there will be no major changes in the fourth quarter. Focus on market segments. There may be a turn for the industry trend in the fourth quarter. Most experts believe that according to the current trend of the ship market, there will be no major changes in the market trend in the fourth quarter of this year as a whole. The market will still maintain a monthly average new orders of 8 million to 10 million dwt. The total global new orders will exceed 100 million dwt.
From the perspective of ship type, the bulk carrier market will gradually weaken, the oil tanker market will gradually become the backbone, and the container ship market will become more active.
In September, Clarkson's new ship price index was reported at 141 points, unchanged from the previous month and up 5 points from the lowest level in January 2010. Judging from the ship price trend, the new ship price will basically stabilize in the next three months, and the prices of oil tankers and container ships may also rebound slightly. The prices of individual bulk carriers may slightly fall.
It is less likely that the new ship's trading volume will continue to increase next year. Statistics show that from the point of view of the changes in the turnover of new ships, demand has always fluctuated, and the turnover of new ships has rarely continued to decline or rise for several consecutive years. Experts said that if the total transaction volume in 2010 exceeds 100 million DWT, based on the current macroeconomic situation and the relationship between supply and demand in the shipping market, the probability of new ship turnover in 2011 as a basis for achieving further growth this year will be lower. This is because, on the one hand, demand for orders exceeded expectations in 2010, but most of the order demand came from market exogenous demand rather than real internal demand; on the other hand, orders in 2010 were to some extent an overdraft in 2011; ** Costs will not continue to hover at low levels. Orders created by factors such as low ship prices, low cost, shipbuilding business structure homogeneity, and speculative demand are not stable.
Looking at the development trend of market segments in 2011, the trend of diversification of market demand is even more pronounced, and the proportion of bulk shipping orders will drop significantly; the oil tanker market will continue its development trend in 2010; the container ship market will become more active and overall. The market support is stronger; the special ship market (PCC, LPG ship, LNG ship, etc.) may be further improved. It needs to be pointed out that the large-scale and super-large container ship market will also be active ahead of schedule, and the large-scale container ship will once again become a hot spot in the industry.
For enterprises, experts suggest that shipbuilding companies should adjust their product structure in a timely manner according to the development of the market and increase the research and development of other ship types, especially oil tankers and container ships. Once the market is active, they will be able to accept orders.
In addition, under the circumstances that the low-cost advantages are increasingly difficult to sustain, the accelerated transformation has become a pressing problem facing shipbuilders. Experts stated that shipbuilding enterprises must use the market space brought by low-cost advantages, improve their technological level as soon as possible, carry out research and development of key technologies for green and environmentally-friendly ships, and design and develop ships that meet the international mainstream in order to enhance their competitiveness in the international arena.
A. Data Handheld Orders Continue to Pick Up The growth of various indicators continued to decline In the first 9 months, the country’s total shipbuilding capacity was 45.82 million dwt, which was a year-on-year increase of 65.0%. The new ship order volume was 50.71 million dwt, which was 3 times the amount of new orders received in the same period of last year.
In September, driven by the VLCC and the Panamax bulk carrier, orders for new vessels from the world have risen sharply. China's shipping companies still have outstanding orders, especially breakthroughs in container ships. In September, Shanghai Shipyard Ship Co., Ltd. undertook eight 3,800TEU (standard-box) container ships and Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipyard Co., Ltd. to undertake two 2500TEU container ships, and continued to change the single structure with a large proportion of bulk carriers in China's handheld orders.
Since the new ship orders for the month of September continued to exceed the amount of shipbuilding completed in the same month, China’s momentum of holding orders for ships from the end of April has continued to rise. By the end of September, China's hand-held ship orders reached 194.74 million dwt, which was a 3.5% increase over the end of 2009 and an increase of 1.2% over the same period of the previous year.
From January to September, the country withdrew 40 ship orders totaling 749,000 dwt, accounting for 0.38% of the total number of orders for hand-held vessels at the end of September. The key monitoring of the shipping companies in the month of September had no order cancellation.
Among the various economic indicators, the total industrial output value continued to grow, but the growth rate dropped significantly. In the first 9 months, 2054 shipbuilding enterprises above designated size achieved a total industrial output value of 486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2%, an increase of 8.3%. Among them, the shipping manufacturing industry was 370.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, a decrease of 14.1 percentage points; the ship supporting industry was 55.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, an increase of 16.2%; the ship repair and shipbreaking industry was 55.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.2. %, an increase of 20.4 percentage points.
Export growth of ships also continued to decline. From January to September, shipbuilding enterprises completed 37.71 million DWTs of export ships, which accounted for 82.3% of the total number of shipbuilding projects; new orders for export vessels accounted for 38.84 million DWTs, accounting for 76.6% of the total new orders; as of the end of September, The number of export orders for ships was 170.10 million dwt, which accounted for 87.3% of the total amount of hand-held orders. Shipbuilding industrial enterprises above designated size achieved export value of 212.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, an increase of two percentage points. Among them, the shipbuilding industry totaled 178.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, an increase of 9.5 percentage points; the ship supporting industry was 7.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11%, an increase of 20.7 percentage points; the ship repair and shipbreaking industry was 24.1 billion yuan, an increase from the same period last year. 10.5%, an increase of 25 percentage points.
In the first 8 months, shipbuilding enterprises maintained growth through controlling investment in fixed assets, purchasing materials centrally, strengthening centralized fund management, broadening channels, and paying attention to cost reduction and efficiency gains. The increase in the total profit of the whole industry was higher than that of the increase of main business income by 6.6 percentage points.
From January to August, the main business income of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size was 460 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, a decrease of 10.5 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 267.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, an increase of 20.2 percentage points; the shipbuilding accessory manufacturing industry was 44.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, an increase of 13.7 percentage points; the ship repair and shipbreaking industry was 44.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase. 24.4%, an increase of 25.2 percentage points.
The total profit of shipbuilding industry enterprises above designated size totaled 27.4 billion yuan, an increase of 32.7% year-on-year, an increase of 38.2 percentage points. Among them, the shipbuilding industry was 22.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.7%, an increase of 38.3 percentage points; the shipbuilding accessory manufacturing industry was 2.41 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 17.2%; the ship repair and shipbreaking industry was 2.14 billion yuan, year-on-year It dropped by 16.4%, and the decrease narrowed by 30.1 percentage points.
B. Analysis of decline in ship prices The decline in shipbuilding profits has become an indisputable fact. According to the experts, from the data of the first three quarters, the performance of the ship market was clearly better than expected. In spite of this, a notable feature is that since the last year, the price of ships has fallen seriously. The price of the ship has rebounded this year, but it is still not good. The current price of new ships has dropped by 30% to 40% from the highest peak in 2008, and individual ships even exceed 40%. In addition, ship prices have fallen sharply and the current investment costs have fallen significantly, making ship owners step up efforts to build. However, it must be noted that most of the orders this year do not originate from genuine endogenous market demand, but come from the "bottom-bottoming" operation of non-mainstream shipowners and speculative capital.
While the ship price was declining, the cost of shipbuilding rose further. Experts told reporters that labor costs, raw material costs, monetary tightening, capital costs for raising interest rates, and management costs, together with other unpredictable factors, are expected to rise in the next few years. The decline in shipbuilding profits has become an indisputable fact. .
***Significant impact of exchange rate changes China Shipbuilding Industry Association stated that at present, changes in the exchange rate have been and will continue to have a significant impact on the industry.
Compared with other industries, the impact of *** appreciation on the shipbuilding industry has become more prominent and serious. It is estimated that the value of the exchange rate of *** will rise by 1% per liter. Shipbuilding companies' revenue from hand-held orders will decrease by about RMB 4 billion***. Since the reform of China’s exchange rate formation mechanism was restarted on June 19 this year, the *** has appreciated by more than 2% against the U.S. dollar, resulting in a reduction of revenues by the shipbuilding industry by nearly 10 billion yuan. If you continue to appreciate, the loss will be greater.
Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, the price of ships has generally declined by 20% to 30%, and some ships have even fallen by 40%. The Association of Shipbuilding Associations stated that the appreciation of *** will make our shipbuilding industry worse. Starting in 2013, there may be a loss in the entire industry. At the same time, the appreciation of *** will increase the cost of shipbuilding in China. In the price competition in the international market determined by the overall supply and demand relationship, it will seriously weaken the price competitive advantage of China’s ship products and widen the gap between international competitiveness of advanced shipbuilding countries. In addition, the appreciation of *** is conducive to improving the competitiveness of foreign marine supporting enterprises. To reduce costs, shipyards are more optimistic about imported equipment. The production environment of China's ship supporting enterprises will be even worse.
The problem of unbalanced ship type structure with unbalanced ship structure still cannot be ignored. At present, many shipbuilding companies have relied excessively on the bulk carrier market. This has also led to an overall overcapacity in the shipbuilding industry. Due to the unbalanced ship type structure, high-end production capacity is still insufficient. Experts said that in the future market, the bulk carriers that have always dominated may no longer be the mainstream. At present, there are both excesses in the global bulk carrier shipping and shipbuilding markets; as the world’s refining capacity and layout change, the global oil product ship, especially The demand for large-scale product oil tankers is relatively active; at the same time, the development of the container ship market is also expected to be the next step. Currently, the inquiry of the new shipbuilding market for container vessels has become increasingly active.
If the total transaction volume in 2010 exceeds 100 million DWT, based on the current macroeconomic situation and supply and demand in the shipping market, the probability of new ship turnover in 2011 as a basis for achieving further growth on this year is lower.
C predicts that there will be no major changes in the fourth quarter. Focus on market segments. There may be a turn for the industry trend in the fourth quarter. Most experts believe that according to the current trend of the ship market, there will be no major changes in the market trend in the fourth quarter of this year as a whole. The market will still maintain a monthly average new orders of 8 million to 10 million dwt. The total global new orders will exceed 100 million dwt.
From the perspective of ship type, the bulk carrier market will gradually weaken, the oil tanker market will gradually become the backbone, and the container ship market will become more active.
In September, Clarkson's new ship price index was reported at 141 points, unchanged from the previous month and up 5 points from the lowest level in January 2010. Judging from the ship price trend, the new ship price will basically stabilize in the next three months, and the prices of oil tankers and container ships may also rebound slightly. The prices of individual bulk carriers may slightly fall.
It is less likely that the new ship's trading volume will continue to increase next year. Statistics show that from the point of view of the changes in the turnover of new ships, demand has always fluctuated, and the turnover of new ships has rarely continued to decline or rise for several consecutive years. Experts said that if the total transaction volume in 2010 exceeds 100 million DWT, based on the current macroeconomic situation and the relationship between supply and demand in the shipping market, the probability of new ship turnover in 2011 as a basis for achieving further growth this year will be lower. This is because, on the one hand, demand for orders exceeded expectations in 2010, but most of the order demand came from market exogenous demand rather than real internal demand; on the other hand, orders in 2010 were to some extent an overdraft in 2011; ** Costs will not continue to hover at low levels. Orders created by factors such as low ship prices, low cost, shipbuilding business structure homogeneity, and speculative demand are not stable.
Looking at the development trend of market segments in 2011, the trend of diversification of market demand is even more pronounced, and the proportion of bulk shipping orders will drop significantly; the oil tanker market will continue its development trend in 2010; the container ship market will become more active and overall. The market support is stronger; the special ship market (PCC, LPG ship, LNG ship, etc.) may be further improved. It needs to be pointed out that the large-scale and super-large container ship market will also be active ahead of schedule, and the large-scale container ship will once again become a hot spot in the industry.
For enterprises, experts suggest that shipbuilding companies should adjust their product structure in a timely manner according to the development of the market and increase the research and development of other ship types, especially oil tankers and container ships. Once the market is active, they will be able to accept orders.
In addition, under the circumstances that the low-cost advantages are increasingly difficult to sustain, the accelerated transformation has become a pressing problem facing shipbuilders. Experts stated that shipbuilding enterprises must use the market space brought by low-cost advantages, improve their technological level as soon as possible, carry out research and development of key technologies for green and environmentally-friendly ships, and design and develop ships that meet the international mainstream in order to enhance their competitiveness in the international arena.
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