Nuclear power "retreats" other clean energy "wind and water"

The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” outline published on March 16 clearly stated that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, non-fossil energy will account for 11.4% of primary energy consumption. According to the government's existing commitments, by 2020 China's non-fossil energy will account for 15% of primary energy consumption, of which nuclear power will contribute 4%.

Zhou Gang, an analyst at Gao Hua Securities, believes that if nuclear power projects are affected by the nuclear leakage triggered by the earthquake in Japan, the planned reduction in nuclear power could “make room” for the development of renewable energy such as hydropower, wind power and photovoltaics.

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The State Council executive meeting on March 16 decided to adjust and improve the mid- and long-term plans for the development of nuclear power. According to industry experts, this largely means that nuclear power may have "planned" targets that are likely to "shrink." The decline in the proportion of nuclear power will undoubtedly affect the realization of the entire non-fossil energy target and the transformation of the energy structure.

Gao Gang Securities analyst Zhou Gang believes that China can choose a variety of fuels to meet the growing demand for power generation. He estimated that in order to meet the electricity demand, the CAGR of domestic total power generation capacity in 2010-2020 will reach 7%.

Zhou Gang said that their basic assumptions are that the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 100 G W in 2020 (GW is the power unit, representing 1 Gw, 1 G W = 1000 MW = 1 million kW), which only accounts for 5 of the total installed capacity. % and 9% of total electricity generation. He believes that China will stick to the goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40%-45% in 2005 compared with 2005.

Although nuclear power can control carbon emissions very flexibly and effectively, long-term energy policies should not have only one option. He believes that if nuclear power development slows down or scales down, then China may invest the funds originally used to develop nuclear power in other power supply areas.

Specifically: While expanding the installed capacity of coal-fired power plants, shut down small and backward power plants. China will continue to study clean coal technologies. In the next decade, the supply of natural gas will continue to increase, making cleaner and more efficient gas-fired power plants more scalable. This may improve the peaking capacity of China's power system. In addition, the development of smaller hydropower stations may be more flexible in construction. At the same time, as the power grid further improves and the government provides more substantial incentives for power companies to purchase electricity, wind farms will become more popular; solar farms may grow rapidly because the government will give appropriate tariff subsidies when the cost of power generation reaches a sustainable level. . However, even if there is no development of nuclear power, the proportion of thermal power installed capacity is expected to decline.

Wind power problems or resolved within three years Xie Changjun, general manager of Longyuan Power Group Co., Ltd. also believes that the development speed of wind power in China has been continuously improved, but the construction of power grids has been seriously lagging behind. As a result, after some wind farms are built, they cannot deliver power in time and affect operation. However, the constraints on the development of wind power in China's power grid construction should be solved in two to three years. The uncertainty of current nuclear energy policies brings greater opportunities for wind power development.

At the same time, he said that at present, the country has already planned for power grid construction and is building some transmission and transmission lines and increasing capacity. For example, last year, Jiuquan Jiuquan wind power transmission and transmission line was completed and more than 4 million kilowatts of wind power could be sent out.