Non-ferrous metal prices hovering at the crossroads

Non-ferrous metal prices are currently at a critical turning point. On June 6th, the copper price in the London trading market reached a record high of US$3,320 per ton, a record high in 16 years. However, in the following trading day, the price of copper continued to close three negative lines. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures trend also reached a high point on the 6th, fell for 3 consecutive days, the main contract price fell more than 650 yuan / ton. Spot prices are also falling. The spot price of non-ferrous metals in Guangdong Nancun shows that the spot price of copper has dropped to 34,600 yuan on June 8. The company's analysis pointed out that the imaginary price also suppressed the enthusiasm of the copper company's purchase. Without consumer support, copper prices are difficult to maintain at high levels. Aluminum spot prices are also continuing to decline. In the case of a long-term waning consumption in the aluminum market, due to funding pressures, suppliers gradually reduced the price of aluminum ingots. According to the information quoted by the South Bank, the aluminum price in the tail market has fallen on the 8th of June. The market was even lighter yesterday and dealers had to cut prices again. The trading range yesterday was between 17030 and 17150 yuan/ton. For the non-ferrous metal late price movements, the views of different parties are divided. The more pessimistic about the copper price in the later period is the international copper giant. On June 8, Verasu, the chief executive of Chile’s state-owned copper mining company, which controls about 20% of the world’s copper reserves, said: “The only thing that can be predicted is that prices will fall. At present, spot copper prices are about US$1.6 per pound, but This is only a short-term phenomenon. In the next 1 to 2 years, copper prices will gradually drop to 1 US dollar per pound.” But some analysts have expressed cautious optimism. A senior person at Shenzhen Futures said that due to the low level of copper stocks, which is the lower point in 30 years, despite the increase in production, copper prices may remain high in the short term. However, he also pointed out that whether the market will shift to excess depends on the US economy and whether China’s demand for copper can continue to rise. The new research report of CITIC Securities pointed out that since the beginning of 2002, the prices of all varieties of non-ferrous metals have generally risen. This increase has lasted for three and a half years. The continued rise in prices is a key factor in determining the investment value of the non-ferrous metals industry. The report believes that the current US Commodity Research Bureau's metal price index has hit a new high of nearly 30 years. Whether it can continue to record high or maintain high consolidation will depend on the global economic trend and the US dollar exchange rate. The report pointed out that although the global economic recovery trend is unchanged, but in the second half of 2005 and 2006 will slow down, the dollar is difficult to continue to depreciate, and there is an unfavorable factor in the appreciation of the renminbi, it is expected that non-ferrous metal prices rise is difficult to sustain. (Wang Xun)

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