Interpretation of the construction plan of the affordable Internet project: the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau must "come really"

Just as all PV people are waiting for the New Deal in 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have once again issued a work plan on promoting the construction of unfunded and affordable online projects for wind power and photovoltaic power generation for the affordable Internet project (Consultation Draft) )" (hereinafter referred to as "the program"). Establish a priority position for affordable internet projects!

At the beginning of 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Actively Promoting Non-subsidized Internet Access for Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation" (hereinafter referred to as "Notice"). At the beginning of the "Notice", the author has evaluated The policy is “the most sincere policy after 531”, because the policy is aimed at reducing the non-technical cost of affordable Internet access, and considers it comprehensively, and provides a solution to the problems that may exist in all affordable Internet projects. The author also believes that the smooth development of affordable Internet projects depends mainly on whether the policy can be implemented.

The work plan introduced this time is to ensure that the "notification" related support policies are in place. Let's take a look at what information is revealed in this work plan.

First, confirm the priority: the parity online project priority, the subsidy project pushed back

The first content of the work plan is to prioritize the construction of affordable Internet projects, and require all regions to meet the conditions on the basis of power transmission and consumption conditions, and first determine a set of affordable online wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects that can be started in 2019. At the same time, in Article 4, before the demonstration of the parity Internet project and the identification of the first batch of affordable Internet projects in 2019, the regions will not organize the competition allocation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects that require state subsidies.

The above can be found that the “program” will determine the list of the first batch of affordable Internet projects as the most urgent need for the current PV industry to complete. To be precise, after the construction of the first batch of affordable Internet projects, the competitive allocation of subsidized projects will begin.

Prior to this, the industry has always believed that subsidized projects will take precedence over parity online projects (ie “unsubsidized projects”). Because of the wind direction of the subsidy policy, there will be 3 billion yuan of funds as a subsidy for photovoltaic projects this year. Some professionals have learned that the 3 billion yuan will support about 45GW of new installed capacity.

This means that subsidized projects will still be the absolute main force for new installations this year, and the hot and cheap Internet projects that have been speculative will become a foil.

However, the introduction of the "plan" completely broke this impression. Household projects or ground power stations, as long as they require state subsidies, all stand back.

Second, strictly implement various favorable policies

As one of the most sincere policies after the "531" last year, the "Notice" has set a number of favorable policies for the affordable Internet project. The most important one is reflected in the decline in non-technical costs.

Including but not limited to: requiring local government departments to support land-use and land-related charges for affordable Internet projects, prohibiting the collection of any form of resource transfer fees, etc., and not investing in local construction, requesting or disguising requirements to purchase local As the bundling conditions for project construction, the equipment is required to ensure that the power generation of the project is fully connected to the Internet and bear the responsibility for the purchase of electricity for the parity online project; the financial institutions such as the National Development Bank and the four state-owned commercial banks are required to develop financial products suitable for the project characteristics. Support new energy generation to achieve parity online.

It can be said that the "notice" has almost eliminated all obstacles to the cheap Internet project. The policy is coming out, but because it involves multiple interests, how to implement it is the key. The “program” not only established the priority status of the affordable Internet project, but also emphasized the various advantages mentioned in the “Notice” and proceeded to strictly implement it.

First of all, in terms of consumption, the “program” once again reflects the priority of the affordable Internet project, and the consumption space is prioritized to support the affordable Internet project. In all types of projects, the order of configuration capacity is:

1. Projects that have been filed and voluntarily converted to affordable online projects

2. Newly built affordable internet project in 2019

3. Projects requiring state subsidies

Secondly, the "program" requires all regions to jointly implement the policy of affordable Internet access. In the “Implementation of Work and Division of Tasks” in the annex, it is clear that “reducing non-technical costs such as land” and at the same time, in order to reduce the burden on enterprises, the grid enterprises are required to be responsible for all supporting power grid projects such as the connection network outside the project boosting station; It also stipulates the power sales contract of related projects, to ensure the purchase of electricity for more than 20 years, and to ensure that the online project does not need to participate in the electricity market. These favorable policies are all detailed and accounted for the time limit for completion. All of this shows that the NDRC and the Energy Bureau are "coming true."

Interpretation of the construction plan of the affordable Internet project: the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau must "come really"

Third, the price line project and the timeline of subsidized projects

In terms of time, the “Proposal” mentioned in Article 5: In areas with the conditions for building wind power and photovoltaic emission-level Internet access projects, the relevant provincial (district, municipal) Development and Reform Commission should submit the first batch of 2019 by April 25th. List of wind power and photovoltaic emission level Internet access projects (items in distributed market-oriented transactions submitted by relevant regions in 2018 will be included in the first batch after review).

In other words, each region needs to report the list of affordable Internet projects by April 25. The time limit for policy implementation in the above-mentioned “Related Matters and Division of Tasks” will be before June 30, 2019. The first batch of affordable Internet projects in 2019 may start in the first half of this year.

The priority status of parity online has been established, and we can also reverse the timeline of subsidized projects in 2019 from the timeline of affordable Internet access.

At present, the time has come to mid-April. Is there still time to work on subsidized projects after completing the affordable Internet project? This is a question.

According to the general estimate, from the project declaration, to the national queuing competition configuration, to the start of construction, this process of subsidized projects may take half a year. If this is the case, if the related work of the subsidized project is not carried out, then these projects will not be able to complete the grid before the end of the year. Now, after the release of the “program”, the priority parity online project will be established, and the time for subsidized projects will have to be pushed back.

Article 5 of the “Proposal” mentions: indeed, there is no area for building wind power and photovoltaic level-level online project conditions (or the scale can be very limited), and the relevant provincial (autonomous regions, municipalities) energy authorities should submit to the country before May 31. The Energy Bureau submits the methods and work plans for the competition allocation of state subsidy projects, and organizes relevant work according to the State Energy Administration's feedback on the competition allocation methods and work plans.

The above can be found that the time limit for the list of subsidized projects is May 31. At the same time, it released a signal that the 2019 subsidy new deal must be released before May 31, and in order to give buffer time to each region, the policy will be released in April. If, on May 31, the list of subsidized projects has been completed, the next step is to compile the allocation, determine the project, and start construction. This time schedule is just enough for the subsidized projects to be connected to the grid before the end of the year.

4. Stock projects participate in competitive allocation as new construction projects

According to the relevant situation of the provinces and cities that have been included in the planning but not built photovoltaic power generation projects since the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the capacity of PV projects in China has been filed but not connected to the grid exceeds 50GW. Where should this part of the stock project go?

The “program” indicates that wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects have been approved (recorded) for two years but have not started construction or have been applied for extension, or have been applied for extension but have not started construction within the extended period, regardless of whether the enterprise promises to continue construction, The approved (recorded) documents shall be abolished in accordance with the project approval (recording) management regulations. If the project unit wishes to continue construction, it should participate in the competition configuration of the new project in this year as a new construction project after the project approval (recording) management agency agrees. Encourage all types of wind power projects and photovoltaic power generation projects that have not been substantially started after construction or approval (recording) to be voluntarily converted into affordable online projects.

That is to say, there are three possibilities for the processing of this part of the stock project: 1. It is abolished; 2. Participate in competitive allocation as a new project; 3. Voluntarily turn into a cheap online project.

As for the amount of capacity that has been abolished and how much it is involved in the competition allocation as a new project, it is not yet estimated.

Market impact and trend: rush to reproduce

Although the industry's most anticipated subsidy new policy has not yet been released, the "plan" has finally given the domestic PV market a goal and direction. And for now, this is the only direction.

According to the above analysis, the high probability of a cheap online project needs to start construction before June 30th. This means that the time of this part of the project is very compact, which may lead to the rushing effect.

Because of the tight time, related companies may need to hurry to stock up, domestic demand picks up, or may increase the price of photovoltaic products.

In addition, the work of subsidized projects will also be carried out in the near future. This part of the project will still be the main force for new installations in 2019, and must be connected to the grid before the end of the year. Due to the time, the photovoltaic industry is expected to have multiple rushing surges in the second half of the year.

In general, after the release of the “program”, the domestic market is expected to start immediately, and the price of photovoltaic products may rise, and companies need to be prepared in advance.

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