IMF lowers economic growth expectations and makes global political and economic outlook uncertain again

On Wednesday, the US-Europe tariff dispute and the IMF's downward adjustment of economic growth expectations plunged the global political and economic outlook into uncertainty once again, and the nonferrous majority was under pressure. As of 14:52, the main Shanghai zinc contract ZN1909 reported 19330 yuan / ton, up 0.26%; the main Shanghai nickel contract NI1910 reported 111960 yuan / ton, down 1.02%.

In terms of zinc, under the expectation of an increase in the supply of overseas zinc ingots, LME zinc has maintained its premium status in the near future, and the domestic fundamental supply and demand are weak. If the macro market is not favorable, the zinc market is expected to be weak. On the macro side, the market will usher in the most important risk event this week at 19:45, the European Central Bank interest rate resolution. Recently released economic data indicate that the downside risk of the euro zone economy is rising. The market generally expects the European Central Bank to follow the Fed to release pigeons. Send a signal to be alert to the market's backlash caused by unexpected factors.

In terms of nickel, customs data showed that China ’s stainless steel export volume decreased by 21.09% in June, a decrease of 11.1% to 283,700 tons, and stainless steel import volume decreased by 71.1%, a decrease of 31.5% to 48,200 tons, of which imports were from Indonesian stainless steel. Decreased by 74.2% and decreased by 94% year-on-year to 0.65 million tons. Global stainless steel consumption continued to be sluggish, and the supply of chromium ore and ferronickel was expected to increase throughout the year. Stainless steel does not have the conditions for a long-term rise. There is a risk of falling, it is recommended to continue to hold short orders.

Operational recommendations: zinc wait-and-see, nickel short selling.