Equipment manufacturing industry: stepping on the policy rhythm to grasp the industry cycle
2022-12-04 12:04:54
We are firmly optimistic about the high-end equipment manufacturing industry that benefits from the economic restructuring. Of course, we will not shy away from the monetary tightening and the growth rate of the construction machinery industry will fall.
We look at the development space of high-end equipment manufacturing industry from a three-dimensional perspective. Industry development and policy regulation are debates on space and rhythm. We are firmly optimistic about the high-end equipment manufacturing industry that benefits from economic restructuring. Of course, we do not shy away from the growth of construction machinery industry under monetary tightening. Will fall back.
Along with the main theme of the recovery, along the industrial chain, from the domestic perspective, we focus on emerging strategies and energy equipment portfolio.
Tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy
Benefiting from loose monetary and fiscal policies, the machinery industry performed much better than expected in 2010, reaching the best level in history. After the financial crisis, the Chinese government decisively implemented an expansionary fiscal policy. China has become the engine of the global economy, and the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has benefited significantly.
2010 can be regarded as the best year for China to enter the machinery industry in the industrial age: high growth, low inflation and high profitability. The sales volume of construction machinery and machine tool industry related to domestic fixed asset investment reached a record high, and the emerging strategic industry--the technology of rail transit equipment industry continued to make breakthroughs. Especially in the construction machinery industry, profit growth has generally reached more than 50%. At the same time, almost all companies have launched refinancing and acquisition expansion plans, further driving demand for equipment.
At the same time of economic recovery, the crowding out effect of expansionary fiscal policy is beginning to emerge. Expansionary fiscal policy will lead to an increase in government deficits, rising interest rates, and increased opportunity cost of investment. Enterprises may postpone the expansion of factories, purchase equipment and improve capital. Expenditure, forming an extrusion effect. At the same time, rising interest rates are expected to attract foreign capital inflows, causing the appreciation of the renminbi, which will affect exports.
The loose monetary policy also contributed to the asset price bubble to some extent. Judging from the supply and demand relationship of many commodities around the world, no reversal has been found, overcapacity and the aftermath of the financial crisis in Europe and the United States. Liquidity has raised the expectation of inflation and is not conducive to the recovery of the real economy. From this perspective, next year, the state is more likely to adopt “tight currency finance†in the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment still maintained growth of around 20%. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", it is proposed that the "12th Five-Year Plan" should ensure that the key projects under construction and continued construction of the country's domestic demand expansion are successfully completed and that they are effective. Give play to the role of industrial policies and guide investment to further diversify into areas such as people's livelihood and social undertakings, agriculture and rural areas, technological innovation, ecological environmental protection, and resource conservation.
Adhere to different treatments, classified guidance, and guide investment to the central and western regions. In the fixed assets investment, according to the general opinion of the real estate industry researchers, real estate investment will benefit from the development of affordable housing and urbanization. In 2011, it should be able to maintain a growth rate of around 20%; infrastructure construction will remain stable, among which high-speed rail investment is still expected. Maintaining around 700 billion yuan, the urban rail transit will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 50% in the next five years. In addition, investment in the energy extraction industry and metallurgical industry has bottomed out, and regional integration and industry integration will also bring new investment.
In summary, according to historical characteristics, the fixed-asset investment of the “five-year plan†is generally relatively high. It is estimated that the fixed asset investment in 2011 will also increase by about 20%.
Tightening the impact of liquidity on the machinery industry Tightening liquidity can curb commodity price speculation. The difference is that in 2007, demand boosted costs, and in 2010, liquidity was promoted. From the perspective of global supply and demand, the driving force for large commodity prices was not enough. Therefore, the cost pressure of the machinery industry in 2010 was not large. Shrinking liquidity can inhibit the rise in short-term commodity prices too fast.
Raising interest rates increases the financing costs of enterprises and curbs investment, but only the interest rate hike has a relatively small and lagging impact on the profitability of the machinery industry.
Shrinking liquidity inhibits excessive growth in total demand, but a similar phenomenon of sudden economic braking in 2004 is unlikely to happen again. Compared with 2004, China's macroeconomic policies have been more precise in recent years. For example, in 2007 and 2010, macroeconomic regulation and control have had little impact on the machinery industry.
The performance of the machinery industry exceeded expectations in 2009-2010, which was related to the long-term negative interest rate and the high demand growth caused by the expansion of fiscal policy. At the same time, it also stimulated the development of credit sales (financial leasing, bank mortgage), that is, the increase in leverage. Tight liquidity can be risky.
From the three-dimensional perspective, the development of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry and the development of a new economy will accelerate the upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry, benefiting nuclear power equipment, rail transit equipment and environmental protection equipment.
The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" proposes: fostering the development of strategic emerging industries, and actively and orderly developing a new generation of information technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, new energy, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, new energy vehicles and other industries to accelerate the formation of pilot And pillar industries to effectively improve the core competitiveness and economic benefits of the industry.
According to the "Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries", the next seven years will focus on the development of seven strategic emerging industries, including energy conservation and environmental protection, new generation information technology, biology, and high-end equipment manufacturing industries as national economies. Pillar industry. By 2015, the strategic emerging industries will form a basic pattern of healthy development and coordinated promotion, and the promotion of industrial structure upgrading will be significantly enhanced. The added value will account for about 8% of GDP, and by 2020, strategic. The added value of emerging industries accounts for about 15% of the gross domestic product.
We believe that in the era of new economy and low carbon economy, energy conservation and environmental protection technologies are widely used in the machinery industry to promote the upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry. For example, the construction of a high-speed rail network will replace road and air transport within 1200 km, and the demand for rail transit equipment will maintain high growth; the most effective way to develop low-cost clean energy is nuclear power plant construction, according to the prediction of international consulting firm Frost & Sullivan. China's total investment in the nuclear power market will reach 880 billion yuan in the next 10 years, with an average annual investment of 100 billion yuan. It is estimated that nuclear power investment in 2010-2012 will be 68.7 billion yuan, 125.2 billion yuan and 164.4 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 70%. In addition, nuclear power equipment requirements for localization rate, nuclear power equipment and parts demand will maintain high growth.
In addition, there are marine projects. At present, there is a big gap between China and South Korea in design and manufacturing. Deep sea exploration has become a global energy mining trend. China's investment in marine engineering will double during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
The deepening of urbanization, investment is the forerunner of consumption, and construction machinery and rail transit equipment benefit. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†proposed: “Promoting regional coordinated development and actively promoting urbanization.†In 2010, the development of construction machinery in the western region exceeded expectations, and investment in western provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Sichuan, and equipment demand. Pulling has contributed a lot to 2010. These provinces have become a major sales province for loaders and concrete machinery, and high-speed rail construction is accelerating China's urbanization. Of course, when it comes to urbanization, there will be people who mention the end of the demographic dividend or the low rate of urbanization.
Looking back over the past few years, sales of real estate investment, automobiles and construction machinery have grown faster than expected. Even in the year of the financial crisis, these three indicators exceeded the market's general expectations.
We believe that urbanization and consumption upgrading and infrastructure support are inseparable. More people enter the city, consumption is upgraded, automobile sales are at a new high, and infrastructure supporting requirements are inextricably linked.
Let's talk about the real estate investment with different differences. In the long-term, in the trend of urbanization, the supply of real estate should be stable growth. The protection of housing as a form of mitigating social contradictions is manifested in the essence of housing demand.
The internationalization strategy layout of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry has begun, and the construction machinery industry has taken the lead in layout. Although some low-end mechanical products have the highest output in the world due to factors such as labor and environmental protection costs, in fact, the internationalization strategy of China's equipment manufacturing industry has just begun. The financial crisis has dealt a heavy blow to Chinese exports, but the financial crisis has also been reduced. With the cost of China’s implementation of its internationalization strategy, mergers and acquisitions began to increase.
The equipment manufacturing industry is expected to become one of China's competitive industries. Construction machinery, railway equipment and other industries are expected to dominate the world, which will change the global competition pattern of equipment manufacturing industry, and of course, the internationalization strategy of China's equipment manufacturing enterprises. We are optimistic about the internationalization of leading companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Liugong, China South Locomotive, China CNR and CIMC.
Emerging industries and energy equipment portfolio
The high-end equipment manufacturing industry will benefit from the economic restructuring and will outperform the index. Industry development and policy regulation are the debate between space and rhythm. Under the development trend of urbanization, new economy and globalization, high-end equipment manufacturing industries such as construction machinery, rail transit equipment and energy mining equipment have long been optimistic.
However, the short-term tightening of the growth rate of the liquid machinery industry will fall. At the same time, the machinery industry is at the peak of refinancing and capacity expansion, and the policy shift may exacerbate industry competition. In 2011, the global economic recovery, raw material prices will rise slightly, the profitability of the machinery industry will decline slightly in 2011, similar to the 2010 ultra-high growth is unlikely to continue.
For the mechanical industry with obvious cyclical characteristics, the investment strategy is to follow the policy rhythm and grasp the industry cycle.
The change in the growth rate of real estate investment in 2011 is crucial to the demand of the construction machinery industry. First, look at the changes in liquidity indicators, grasp the band market conditions, and in the short-term under the guidance of policy regulation, the growth rate of the construction machinery industry will fall, and the market will fluctuate. Mainly; the catalyst for the launch of railway equipment blue-chip is the tender of the Ministry of Railways; energy equipment is a large area, including oil extraction equipment, nuclear power plant construction process and coal mining equipment, global economic recovery and rising energy prices are forward-looking indicators. The ship and heavy machinery industry still maintains a “neutral†investment rating.
We will focus on launching new strategic industries and energy equipment cooperation: From the policy perspective, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†has been introduced one after another, fixed asset investment still maintains a high level, and emerging strategic industries benefit from economic transformation and industrial structure upgrading; From the perspective of cyclical rotation, the energy equipment manufacturing industry will benefit from rising energy prices and industry integration. From the valuation point of view, the PE of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry in 2011 is below 20 times, and the policy and industry recovery will be overestimated. Value level.
Focus on launching three major combinations: energy equipment portfolio, including CIMC, Shandong Molong, Zhengmei Coal Mine; high-speed rail equipment portfolio, including China South Locomotive, China CNR, Times New Materials; strategic advantages of engineering machinery, including Sany Heavy Industry, Liugong.
We look at the development space of high-end equipment manufacturing industry from a three-dimensional perspective. Industry development and policy regulation are debates on space and rhythm. We are firmly optimistic about the high-end equipment manufacturing industry that benefits from economic restructuring. Of course, we do not shy away from the growth of construction machinery industry under monetary tightening. Will fall back.
Along with the main theme of the recovery, along the industrial chain, from the domestic perspective, we focus on emerging strategies and energy equipment portfolio.
Tight monetary policy and loose fiscal policy
Benefiting from loose monetary and fiscal policies, the machinery industry performed much better than expected in 2010, reaching the best level in history. After the financial crisis, the Chinese government decisively implemented an expansionary fiscal policy. China has become the engine of the global economy, and the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has benefited significantly.
2010 can be regarded as the best year for China to enter the machinery industry in the industrial age: high growth, low inflation and high profitability. The sales volume of construction machinery and machine tool industry related to domestic fixed asset investment reached a record high, and the emerging strategic industry--the technology of rail transit equipment industry continued to make breakthroughs. Especially in the construction machinery industry, profit growth has generally reached more than 50%. At the same time, almost all companies have launched refinancing and acquisition expansion plans, further driving demand for equipment.
At the same time of economic recovery, the crowding out effect of expansionary fiscal policy is beginning to emerge. Expansionary fiscal policy will lead to an increase in government deficits, rising interest rates, and increased opportunity cost of investment. Enterprises may postpone the expansion of factories, purchase equipment and improve capital. Expenditure, forming an extrusion effect. At the same time, rising interest rates are expected to attract foreign capital inflows, causing the appreciation of the renminbi, which will affect exports.
The loose monetary policy also contributed to the asset price bubble to some extent. Judging from the supply and demand relationship of many commodities around the world, no reversal has been found, overcapacity and the aftermath of the financial crisis in Europe and the United States. Liquidity has raised the expectation of inflation and is not conducive to the recovery of the real economy. From this perspective, next year, the state is more likely to adopt “tight currency finance†in the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment still maintained growth of around 20%. In the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", it is proposed that the "12th Five-Year Plan" should ensure that the key projects under construction and continued construction of the country's domestic demand expansion are successfully completed and that they are effective. Give play to the role of industrial policies and guide investment to further diversify into areas such as people's livelihood and social undertakings, agriculture and rural areas, technological innovation, ecological environmental protection, and resource conservation.
Adhere to different treatments, classified guidance, and guide investment to the central and western regions. In the fixed assets investment, according to the general opinion of the real estate industry researchers, real estate investment will benefit from the development of affordable housing and urbanization. In 2011, it should be able to maintain a growth rate of around 20%; infrastructure construction will remain stable, among which high-speed rail investment is still expected. Maintaining around 700 billion yuan, the urban rail transit will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 50% in the next five years. In addition, investment in the energy extraction industry and metallurgical industry has bottomed out, and regional integration and industry integration will also bring new investment.
In summary, according to historical characteristics, the fixed-asset investment of the “five-year plan†is generally relatively high. It is estimated that the fixed asset investment in 2011 will also increase by about 20%.
Tightening the impact of liquidity on the machinery industry Tightening liquidity can curb commodity price speculation. The difference is that in 2007, demand boosted costs, and in 2010, liquidity was promoted. From the perspective of global supply and demand, the driving force for large commodity prices was not enough. Therefore, the cost pressure of the machinery industry in 2010 was not large. Shrinking liquidity can inhibit the rise in short-term commodity prices too fast.
Raising interest rates increases the financing costs of enterprises and curbs investment, but only the interest rate hike has a relatively small and lagging impact on the profitability of the machinery industry.
Shrinking liquidity inhibits excessive growth in total demand, but a similar phenomenon of sudden economic braking in 2004 is unlikely to happen again. Compared with 2004, China's macroeconomic policies have been more precise in recent years. For example, in 2007 and 2010, macroeconomic regulation and control have had little impact on the machinery industry.
The performance of the machinery industry exceeded expectations in 2009-2010, which was related to the long-term negative interest rate and the high demand growth caused by the expansion of fiscal policy. At the same time, it also stimulated the development of credit sales (financial leasing, bank mortgage), that is, the increase in leverage. Tight liquidity can be risky.
From the three-dimensional perspective, the development of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry and the development of a new economy will accelerate the upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry, benefiting nuclear power equipment, rail transit equipment and environmental protection equipment.
The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" proposes: fostering the development of strategic emerging industries, and actively and orderly developing a new generation of information technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, new energy, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, new energy vehicles and other industries to accelerate the formation of pilot And pillar industries to effectively improve the core competitiveness and economic benefits of the industry.
According to the "Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries", the next seven years will focus on the development of seven strategic emerging industries, including energy conservation and environmental protection, new generation information technology, biology, and high-end equipment manufacturing industries as national economies. Pillar industry. By 2015, the strategic emerging industries will form a basic pattern of healthy development and coordinated promotion, and the promotion of industrial structure upgrading will be significantly enhanced. The added value will account for about 8% of GDP, and by 2020, strategic. The added value of emerging industries accounts for about 15% of the gross domestic product.
We believe that in the era of new economy and low carbon economy, energy conservation and environmental protection technologies are widely used in the machinery industry to promote the upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry. For example, the construction of a high-speed rail network will replace road and air transport within 1200 km, and the demand for rail transit equipment will maintain high growth; the most effective way to develop low-cost clean energy is nuclear power plant construction, according to the prediction of international consulting firm Frost & Sullivan. China's total investment in the nuclear power market will reach 880 billion yuan in the next 10 years, with an average annual investment of 100 billion yuan. It is estimated that nuclear power investment in 2010-2012 will be 68.7 billion yuan, 125.2 billion yuan and 164.4 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 70%. In addition, nuclear power equipment requirements for localization rate, nuclear power equipment and parts demand will maintain high growth.
In addition, there are marine projects. At present, there is a big gap between China and South Korea in design and manufacturing. Deep sea exploration has become a global energy mining trend. China's investment in marine engineering will double during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
The deepening of urbanization, investment is the forerunner of consumption, and construction machinery and rail transit equipment benefit. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†proposed: “Promoting regional coordinated development and actively promoting urbanization.†In 2010, the development of construction machinery in the western region exceeded expectations, and investment in western provinces such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Sichuan, and equipment demand. Pulling has contributed a lot to 2010. These provinces have become a major sales province for loaders and concrete machinery, and high-speed rail construction is accelerating China's urbanization. Of course, when it comes to urbanization, there will be people who mention the end of the demographic dividend or the low rate of urbanization.
Looking back over the past few years, sales of real estate investment, automobiles and construction machinery have grown faster than expected. Even in the year of the financial crisis, these three indicators exceeded the market's general expectations.
We believe that urbanization and consumption upgrading and infrastructure support are inseparable. More people enter the city, consumption is upgraded, automobile sales are at a new high, and infrastructure supporting requirements are inextricably linked.
Let's talk about the real estate investment with different differences. In the long-term, in the trend of urbanization, the supply of real estate should be stable growth. The protection of housing as a form of mitigating social contradictions is manifested in the essence of housing demand.
The internationalization strategy layout of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry has begun, and the construction machinery industry has taken the lead in layout. Although some low-end mechanical products have the highest output in the world due to factors such as labor and environmental protection costs, in fact, the internationalization strategy of China's equipment manufacturing industry has just begun. The financial crisis has dealt a heavy blow to Chinese exports, but the financial crisis has also been reduced. With the cost of China’s implementation of its internationalization strategy, mergers and acquisitions began to increase.
The equipment manufacturing industry is expected to become one of China's competitive industries. Construction machinery, railway equipment and other industries are expected to dominate the world, which will change the global competition pattern of equipment manufacturing industry, and of course, the internationalization strategy of China's equipment manufacturing enterprises. We are optimistic about the internationalization of leading companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Liugong, China South Locomotive, China CNR and CIMC.
Emerging industries and energy equipment portfolio
The high-end equipment manufacturing industry will benefit from the economic restructuring and will outperform the index. Industry development and policy regulation are the debate between space and rhythm. Under the development trend of urbanization, new economy and globalization, high-end equipment manufacturing industries such as construction machinery, rail transit equipment and energy mining equipment have long been optimistic.
However, the short-term tightening of the growth rate of the liquid machinery industry will fall. At the same time, the machinery industry is at the peak of refinancing and capacity expansion, and the policy shift may exacerbate industry competition. In 2011, the global economic recovery, raw material prices will rise slightly, the profitability of the machinery industry will decline slightly in 2011, similar to the 2010 ultra-high growth is unlikely to continue.
For the mechanical industry with obvious cyclical characteristics, the investment strategy is to follow the policy rhythm and grasp the industry cycle.
The change in the growth rate of real estate investment in 2011 is crucial to the demand of the construction machinery industry. First, look at the changes in liquidity indicators, grasp the band market conditions, and in the short-term under the guidance of policy regulation, the growth rate of the construction machinery industry will fall, and the market will fluctuate. Mainly; the catalyst for the launch of railway equipment blue-chip is the tender of the Ministry of Railways; energy equipment is a large area, including oil extraction equipment, nuclear power plant construction process and coal mining equipment, global economic recovery and rising energy prices are forward-looking indicators. The ship and heavy machinery industry still maintains a “neutral†investment rating.
We will focus on launching new strategic industries and energy equipment cooperation: From the policy perspective, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†has been introduced one after another, fixed asset investment still maintains a high level, and emerging strategic industries benefit from economic transformation and industrial structure upgrading; From the perspective of cyclical rotation, the energy equipment manufacturing industry will benefit from rising energy prices and industry integration. From the valuation point of view, the PE of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry in 2011 is below 20 times, and the policy and industry recovery will be overestimated. Value level.
Focus on launching three major combinations: energy equipment portfolio, including CIMC, Shandong Molong, Zhengmei Coal Mine; high-speed rail equipment portfolio, including China South Locomotive, China CNR, Times New Materials; strategic advantages of engineering machinery, including Sany Heavy Industry, Liugong.
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