Coal export potential continues to dominate the international market

Australia is rich in coal resources and has proven reserves of 76.2 billion tons, accounting for 9.2% of the world, ranking fourth in the world.

The output ranks third in the world. The total production of raw coal in 2009-10 was 540 million tons, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year. Coal mining is mainly open-pit mining. New South Wales and Queensland produce 97.3% of total black coal production in Australia. The coal industry has a monopoly pattern.

Coal transportation infrastructure: Relatively developed and continuously developed Australia's railways, ports and other coal transportation networks are relatively developed. Among them, the Queensland transport system involves five railway systems and four major ports, and plans to make coal railway transportation capacity and port throughput by 2019-20. Average production capacity doubled. The transportation of coal in New South Wales is mainly through Newcastle and Kembla. In the future, the Newcastle Port will continue to expand in size, laying the foundation for future expansion of coal exports.

Coal consumption: The proportion of domestic consumption is low, and coal-based electricity consumption has stabilized and the industrial structure is relatively mature. Australia's domestic coal consumption includes black coal and lignite, of which black coal accounts for only about 20% (excluding lignite consumption). About 75% of the electricity generated in Australia comes from coal, and coal accounts for about 40% of the energy consumption structure.

Coal exports: More than 75% of Australia’s black coal output is exported to the world’s largest coal exporter, exporting 293 million tons of coal in 2009–10, an increase of 12% year-on-year, including 135 million tons of thermal coal for export and 157 million for coking coal exports. Ton, a year-on-year increase of 26%. It is mainly exported to Japan, South Korea, China, and India in the Asia Pacific region.

The future coal export potential is large: leading the international coal market The future of Australian coal exports depends on the following factors: On the one hand, the growth of international coal market demand; on the other hand, the construction of infrastructure in Australia, especially the progress of the railway, port construction and upgrading.

Australia's thermal coal exports rank second in the world and are the main source of incremental supply for the international market. In the next five years, thermal coal exports are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 11%, and reach 242 million tons in the 2015-16 fiscal year.

Australia's coking coal exports accounts for more than 60% of the world's coking coal trade volume, and it occupies a monopoly position in the international market. In the next five years, the export of coking coal is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of 6%, and it will reach 21,300 tons in fiscal year 2015-16. .

Focus on Australian mining policy: "Resource taxation" and "Carbon tax"

Although the Australian coal export potential in the future is relatively large, the uncertainty still comes from the adjustment of government policies. For example, the Australian government is preparing to introduce "windfall profits tax" and "carbon emission tax", which will push up international coal prices.

Australia's coal pricing power increases, and it is expected that international coal prices will continue to increase in the future. Australia's future export increase will play an important role in the international coal market. Its coal supply monopoly will continue to be strengthened, its coal pricing ability will be further strengthened, and the international coal price trend will remain high. run. In particular, the supply of coking coal is more concentrated and prices continue to hit new highs.