China-made ore "selling" 2013 supply or demand or a turning point
2018-05-26 03:01:46
Ray Pingxi, secretary general of the China Metallurgical and Mining Enterprises Association, said at an industry conference in Shanghai on April 16. It is estimated that the average price of imported iron ore will increase by 10% to 12% this year from last year, under the stimulation of soaring import prices. Currently, domestic mines are stepping up production.
Lei Pingxi said that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, China will build an ultra-large iron ore group of 2 to 300 million tons, and it is expected that the iron ore market will shift from the current supply and demand basic balance to oversupply after 2013.
Domestic mines are "beautiful"
On April 18, Zhang Lin, an analyst at Lange Steel Research Center, pointed out that due to the high price of imported iron ore at present, steel mills are increasingly buying domestically-produced mines, “When the imported mines exceed the US$170/tonne 'red line', steel The factory may stop importing or use domestic mines."
The "Xinhua-China Iron Ore Price Index" shows that as of April 18, China's imported iron ore price index of 63.5% grade was 189 (US dollars), down by 1 unit, and the 58% grade iron ore price index was 155 (US dollars), down 2 units.
According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission on April 13, under the high spot price of iron ore (around US$185/tonne), the profit margins of steel companies are severely squeezed, and the profit margin of key steel companies is only about 3%. Iron and steel companies have stopped importing iron ore stock.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the average price of iron ore imported from China in 2010 was US$128/ton, which was US$40/ton higher than that of the previous year, and the cost of imported iron ore for steel companies increased by approximately RMB196 billion* throughout the year** *.
"The domestic mines must now live much better than the steel mills." Zhang Lin said that the purchase of domestic mines by steel mills is increasing. The mine quotation in the foreign mining market remains strong, but the inquiry is reduced, and the market is "having no market "situation.
Lei Pingxi said that in recent years, the development of domestic iron ore production has accelerated greatly. In 2010, the annual production capacity of domestic iron ore increased from 500 million tons five years ago to 1.2 billion tons, an increase of 140%, and iron ore projects currently under construction and planning. The design scale will also increase by 480 million tons. Lei Pingxi also stated that in 2010 China's overseas investment in mines will generate 60 million tons of mineral resources, which is expected to increase to 90 million tons in 2011 and reach 200 million tons/year in the future, accounting for about 40% of the total amount of imported ore. , thereby reducing the external dependence of iron ore.
According to customs data, China's iron ore imports in March were 59.48 million tons, an increase of 10.68 million tons. The "Xinhua-China Iron Ore Price Index" shows that as of April 18, China's iron ore stockpiles (25 ports along the coast) in China's ports were 92.39 million tons, an increase of 1.55 million tons from the previous week, which is the highest level in years.
The "high-yielding and low-profit" pattern Li Shijun, deputy secretary general and chief analyst of the China Iron and Steel Association, predicts that the "high-yielding and low-profit" situation in the steel industry may not seem to be fundamentally reversed in the short term. In the next five years, there will inevitably be a shortage of people. Iron and steel enterprises with core competitiveness are out."
Li Shijun pointed out that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the average annual growth rate of Chinese steel consumption will be reduced from the 12% of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†to single digits. The number of steel products will increase in the future, but the driving force for the growth of the number of steel products will weaken. In the year, China's crude steel output will be controlled below 700 million tons. However, if the development impulse of the local government is still high, the steel output may “rush to over 800 million tonsâ€.
In many areas of China, the iron and steel industry is a major local tax collector, and local governments are particularly favored. In 2010, China's crude steel production reached a record 627 million tons in history. In the first quarter of this year, the average daily output of crude steel in China reached 1,927,800 tons, which was the highest in the same period.
Lei Pingxi said that during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, China will build an ultra-large iron ore group of 2 to 300 million tons, and it is expected that the iron ore market will shift from the current supply and demand basic balance to oversupply after 2013.
Domestic mines are "beautiful"
On April 18, Zhang Lin, an analyst at Lange Steel Research Center, pointed out that due to the high price of imported iron ore at present, steel mills are increasingly buying domestically-produced mines, “When the imported mines exceed the US$170/tonne 'red line', steel The factory may stop importing or use domestic mines."
The "Xinhua-China Iron Ore Price Index" shows that as of April 18, China's imported iron ore price index of 63.5% grade was 189 (US dollars), down by 1 unit, and the 58% grade iron ore price index was 155 (US dollars), down 2 units.
According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission on April 13, under the high spot price of iron ore (around US$185/tonne), the profit margins of steel companies are severely squeezed, and the profit margin of key steel companies is only about 3%. Iron and steel companies have stopped importing iron ore stock.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the average price of iron ore imported from China in 2010 was US$128/ton, which was US$40/ton higher than that of the previous year, and the cost of imported iron ore for steel companies increased by approximately RMB196 billion* throughout the year** *.
"The domestic mines must now live much better than the steel mills." Zhang Lin said that the purchase of domestic mines by steel mills is increasing. The mine quotation in the foreign mining market remains strong, but the inquiry is reduced, and the market is "having no market "situation.
Lei Pingxi said that in recent years, the development of domestic iron ore production has accelerated greatly. In 2010, the annual production capacity of domestic iron ore increased from 500 million tons five years ago to 1.2 billion tons, an increase of 140%, and iron ore projects currently under construction and planning. The design scale will also increase by 480 million tons. Lei Pingxi also stated that in 2010 China's overseas investment in mines will generate 60 million tons of mineral resources, which is expected to increase to 90 million tons in 2011 and reach 200 million tons/year in the future, accounting for about 40% of the total amount of imported ore. , thereby reducing the external dependence of iron ore.
According to customs data, China's iron ore imports in March were 59.48 million tons, an increase of 10.68 million tons. The "Xinhua-China Iron Ore Price Index" shows that as of April 18, China's iron ore stockpiles (25 ports along the coast) in China's ports were 92.39 million tons, an increase of 1.55 million tons from the previous week, which is the highest level in years.
The "high-yielding and low-profit" pattern Li Shijun, deputy secretary general and chief analyst of the China Iron and Steel Association, predicts that the "high-yielding and low-profit" situation in the steel industry may not seem to be fundamentally reversed in the short term. In the next five years, there will inevitably be a shortage of people. Iron and steel enterprises with core competitiveness are out."
Li Shijun pointed out that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the average annual growth rate of Chinese steel consumption will be reduced from the 12% of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†to single digits. The number of steel products will increase in the future, but the driving force for the growth of the number of steel products will weaken. In the year, China's crude steel output will be controlled below 700 million tons. However, if the development impulse of the local government is still high, the steel output may “rush to over 800 million tonsâ€.
In many areas of China, the iron and steel industry is a major local tax collector, and local governments are particularly favored. In 2010, China's crude steel production reached a record 627 million tons in history. In the first quarter of this year, the average daily output of crude steel in China reached 1,927,800 tons, which was the highest in the same period.
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