Black continues strong steel futures prices hit a new high in six years
The market closed down more and less, but rebar maintained a strong upward trend, and the price rose by 4,300 yuan, a record high since April 19, 2012. As of the close of the day, the main contract of rebar rose 2.67% to 4,345 yuan / ton.
It is worth noting that, except for the strong rebar, the black system mostly rose, in which the hot coil rose by more than 1%, coke and iron ore turned red, and only coking coal fell.
For the steel market, most institutions have consistently seen more, and are organized as follows:
Jinrui Futures: The output is at a high level, and the limited production supports the high price of steel.
Rebar: The output is at a high level, and the limited production supports the high price of steel. This week's thread production decreased by 1.21% from the previous month, with the long process decreasing by 2.01% and the short process increasing by 4.17%. The capacity utilization rate of Tangshan has further declined. The production of blast furnace steel has also been affected by environmental protection and limited production in the plains of Jiangsu, Jiangsu and Jiangxi. As a result, thread production has risen for three consecutive weeks and returned to near the mid-October last year. After the high position, it stopped picking up, but the short-term process continued to increase under the stimulus of profit. In terms of inventory, steel mills' stocks rebounded this week, and social inventories fell. Traders' demand in the first two weeks was reduced this week, while terminal demand increased slightly. Overall, however, the current rebar inventory is still in a downward channel, with little pressure, down 5.4% year-on-year. We believe that this week's thread production has dropped to a high level. It can be seen that the impact of environmental protection on long-process production is still obvious. With the approach of the second phase of the 8.20 environmental strengthening supervision, it is expected that the production limit will increase, superimposing low inventory, spot steel. The price may continue to run at a high level, and futures will use the discount as a margin of safety, which will easily rise and fall. Risk point: Real estate demand fell more than expected.
Iron ore: environmental protection and coke reduction ratio, to enhance the demand for high quality ore. This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate and Tangshan blast furnace capacity utilization rate expanded and decreased, but compared with the 2017-2018 heating season limit production, the current blast furnace capacity utilization still has a downward space. From this week's situation, Tangshan's emission reduction and production limits are still an important local variable that affects the decline in the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity in the country. This week, the iron ore is weak and weak, and the near-distance monthly price gap has narrowed as expected. Due to the increase in demand for environmental protection and defocusing, the ratio of steel mill pellets has increased, and the demand for high-grade sintered ore powder has further increased. The spot price of powder also rose, which narrowed the price difference between the near future and the far month. The i1809 and i1901 were leveled on Friday. We believe that the short-term environmental protection pressure will continue to increase, the high-quality ore logic is expected to continue, and the price of medium-high-grade iron ore may be strong.
Glass: Resumption of production to suppress the spot, but Fg1901 or continue to repair the water. This week, glass utilization rate rebounded to 70.75%, down 1.65 percentage points year-on-year. Manufacturers' shipments slowed down, inventory increased, and spot prices fell steadily. It is reported that the short-term supply-side resumption of production is more concentrated, and the production capacity in the second half of the year will reach a new high in the past two years. Fortunately, this year's off-season is not too low, the current inventory is the lowest since the same period in 2014. With the transition from the off-season to the peak season, real estate completion is expected to accelerate and demand is further released. Fg1901 reflects the supply and demand during the peak season, or will continue to repair the discount.
Spot price: The spot price of imported iron ore ports rebounded sharply this week. The general index rose by US$1.3 to US$68.75/dmt; rebar continued to rise. Since July 6, rebar has rebounded and rebounded. The current increase has exceeded 300 yuan/ Tons, the south is stronger than the north; the glass is weak, and it is stable.
In terms of spreads: this week, iron ore and thread spot premiums expanded, as spot gains were greater than futures; glass spot premiums narrowed, as futures rose in spot. Rebar Guangzhou continues to widen the Shenyang premium, and the north material space continues to open. <Ten steel gross profit> This week, the gross profit of spot thread and hot coil production was 990 yuan/ton (gross margin 29.4%) and 870 yuan/ton (gross margin 25.4%), respectively, which decreased by 58 yuan/ton and decreased compared with last week. 128 yuan / ton, the same year last year, the production profit was 1055 yuan / ton (gross margin 34%) and 995 yuan / ton (gross interest rate 21.5%); Rb1901 disk production profit decreased by 78 yuan / ton to 787 yuan / ton, disk hair Interest rate decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 24.2%; last year's disk profit of 921 yuan / ton, profit margin of 30.3%. Operation strategy (1) thread recommended to use water as a margin of safety, light warehouse test rb1810; (2) iron ore light warehouse Try more i1809; (3) glass 1901 more operations.
CSC Futures: Steel mills boost profits
Under the inflation expectation, the overall trend of bulk commodities showed a strong trend. In addition, the iron ore support was strong under the background of high profit of steel mills. On the other hand, Rio Tinto has rumored the previous information on reducing production, and the post-shipment is not affected. On the whole, it is expected that the latter will still be dominated by strong operations, but it is also necessary to be cautious about the possibility of high callbacks. The strategy I1809 and 1901 contracts suggest that the bargain-hunting in the 500-510 range is long and the stop loss is set at around 90.
Bite Futures: Steel shock adjustment for short-term capital initiative
The spot price of steel is stable, Shanghai thread spot 4300, up 10; hot roll 4250, down 10; Tangshan billet 3910, up 10; ore 505, flat. As of the 9th, threaded society stocks fell by 110,000 tons to 4.42 million tons, 9% higher than the same period of last year; rebar factory inventories increased by 50,000 tons to 1.71 million tons, 27% lower than the same period of last year; total inventory fell to the same period last year 4% lower. Hot coil social inventories increased by 10,000 tons to 2.16 million tons, 3% higher than the same period of last year; in-plant inventory fell by 0.24 million tons to 950,000 tons, 13% higher than the same period of last year; total inventory was 5.52% higher than the same period last year. The threaded social inventory and the total inventory of the steel mills continued to decline, and the decline was slightly expanded, indicating that demand is still limited under supply constraints. The total volume of hot coil stocks increased slightly. On the supply side, the profit of steel mills is currently better (more than 1,000 yuan), and electric furnace steel currently has a profit of more than 500 yuan. This year, environmental protection has become the main line of policy and needs to be focused on; the State Council issued the “Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defence Warfare†to expand the production range of the peaks in autumn and winter, and environmental protection supervision will become the norm. Tangshan environmental protection has once again upgraded and limited production and affected the expansion. Spots are affected by buying and not buying down mentality, market transactions are unstable, and continue to pay attention to the follow-up of terminal demand.
The black market of the futures market is in shock adjustment, the coking coal is the weakest, and the coke ore is in a relatively high position after the compensatory increase. The heat shrinkage of the finished product is greater than the thread. On the one hand, the inventory decline is significantly smaller than the thread. On the other hand, the policy is mainly due to the thread. Supply limited production disturbance, inventory decline, indicating that demand is not bad, steel mill price increase support for market psychology, the recent news of infrastructure development, the formation of good expectations of market psychology, supply and demand to maintain a relatively tight balance, the focus of steel prices Form a support. Short-term focus on the capital initiative after the high shocks callback. In operation, the control position is held after more appropriate reduction; the ore is up more than 1901 and is supported by 500; the thread 1901 is more than 4000, and the hot roll is more than 1901; the short-term trading is mainly in the day.
Changan Futures: Steel coke supply restricted investors more operations
Fundamental point of view, 1, the weekend Tangshan Hongxing iron and steel billet price has risen by 30 yuan / ton, a certain profit for the formation of the black system; 2, August 20, there will be air pollution environmental protection strengthening group stationed in the plain, short-term Will inhibit the production of plutonium plains, coke production, especially coke production, market bulls or speculation; 3, this Tuesday, a series of important data such as fixed assets investment, real estate investment, infrastructure investment data, steel data will be announced, There is a possibility of exceeding expectations and needs to be focused. Overall, the current spot atmosphere is better, the steel coke supply end is limited, and the price of the billet in Tangshan is slightly increased over the weekend. It is recommended that investors operate more.
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