Analysis: Capacity transfer is difficult to solve

According to data provided by Liu Xiangmin, China consumed more than 16 million tons of primary aluminum in 2010, close to the total consumption of 16.727 million tons of primary aluminum in the world in 1986; it was the sum of 3.87 million tons of primary aluminum consumption in the United States and 2.24 million tons in Japan in 2009. 2.61 times, "So no matter from the per capita consumption or unit GDP consumption, China's aluminum consumption has reached a very high level."

In spite of the high aluminum consumption, the major problem that domestic electrolytic aluminum companies have to face is that the profitability of the entire industry is facing serious problems.

Last year, China Aluminum's annual operating income was 121 billion yuan, an increase of 72.19% over the same period, and a net profit of 778 million yuan was realized. In 2009, China Aluminum's sales revenue was only 70.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, and net profit was a loss of 4.65 billion yuan.

Zhongfu Industry (12.60, -0.74, -5.55%) (600595.SH) last year, operating income of 10.826 billion yuan, an increase of 69.04%; but net profit of only 221 million yuan, a decrease of 28.65%.

In 2010, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 16.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.07%, accounting for the first time that global output exceeded 40%. At that time, electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 22 million tons, and there are currently a large number of new and proposed electrolytic aluminum projects.

Li Defeng, Director of Aluminum Department of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, predicted that during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the electrolytic aluminum industry will face a state of relative excess supply. With the gradual increase in the average social cost, the profitability of the entire industry will continue to decline. , electrolytic aluminum industry has entered the "marginal effect era" of fierce competition.

Li Defeng predicts that by 2015, the global primary aluminum production capacity will reach 60 million tons, China’s primary aluminum production capacity will reach 30 million tons, and China’s annual electrolytic aluminum production will remain at 22 million tons. By then, it will have one million tons of electrolytic aluminum production and processing capacity. There will be more than 10 large companies or groups that have basically coordinated upstream and downstream industry chains.

At present, the global electrolytic aluminum production capacity has begun to gradually shift to energy-rich regions. Liu Xiangmin believes that from an international perspective, with the further increase in global energy costs, especially the possibility of carbon costs in Europe and the United States included, electrolytic aluminum production capacity will continue to move to the Middle East, Russia and Other low energy cost regions.

According to incomplete statistics, there were five electrolytic aluminium projects in Qatar, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and India between 2009 and 2011. A total of 2.71 million tons of capacity was put into operation; six projects are planned to be built, with a total capacity of 4.51 million tons.

Domestic electrolytic aluminum is also gradually shifting to the west. In 2010, domestic electrolytic aluminum construction capacity was 4.44 million tons, of which 68% was located in Gansu, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, and the new production capacity was approximately 1.5 million tons. In Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions.

In 2010, the total AC power consumption of electrolytic aluminum was 13,979 kWh/ton, and the average electricity price of the industry exceeded 0.45 yuan/kWh, which was the highest in the world. Li Defeng said that the average price of electricity in the electrolytic aluminum industry in China is the highest in the world, and the total cost of electricity is as high as 40%. The foreign electricity cost accounts for about 25% to 30% of the total cost of electrolytic aluminum, with labor costs and financial costs. With the continuous increase in the cost of raw materials, the competitiveness of China's electrolytic aluminum industry is gradually decreasing.

In fact, domestic electrolytic aluminum shifts to the west. Although the energy cost has been reduced, an important question is whether human resources come from. Not only electrolytic aluminum, many high-energy-consuming industries are currently hoping to shift to the west, using low-cost energy resources in the west, but the human resources there are a constraint.